Bayesian Small Area Models for Assessing Wildlife Conservation Risk in Patchy Populations

Abstract:  Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third-order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage-scale effects. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.     

Rainfall trends in twentieth century over Kerala,India

Attempts were made to study temporal variation in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall over Kerala, India, during the period from 1871 to 2005. Longterm changes in rainfall determined by Man-Kendall rank statistics and linear trend. The analysis revealed significant decrease in southwest monsoon rainfall while increase in post-monsoon season over the State of Kerala which is popularly known as the “Gateway of summer monsoon”. Rainfall during winter and summer seasons showed insignificant increasing trend. Rainfall during June and July showed significant decreasing trend while increasing trend in January, February and April. Hydel power generation and water availability during summer months are the concern in the State due to rainfall decline in June and July, which are the rainiest months. At the same time, majority of plantation crops are likely to benefit due to increase in rainfall during the post-monsoon season if they are stable and prolonged.     

Integrated assessment: Missing link in the acid rain debate?

The United States is finding it difficult to develop a coherent policy on acid rain. Despite more than a decade of scientific research and policy initiatives, no clear course of action has been identified. This article argues that what is missing is an integrated assessment of the scientific knowledge that will guide the political process. The role of the integrated assessment is described, and a conceptual framework presented that would accomplish the desired goal. Currently available acid rain assessment models are compared against this framework and found to be less than satisfactory. The article concludes by stressing the opportunity now available to the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to perform such an assessment and break the logjam.     

A new look at the old problem of eutrophication management in southern Africa

Summary This paper contrasts the traditional engineering approach to eutrophication management with a proposed systems approach. Legislative, social, economic and technical aspects of eutrophication are identified. Through the use of some recent case studies, the importance of the socioeconomic factors relative to the legal-technical aspects of eutrophication management is highlighted. Whilst the latter retain their vital role in eutrophication control programmes, this paper suggests that the former cannot be ignored, and recommends adoption of a systems approach to the management of eutrophication.Dr Jeffrey A. Thornton and Guy Boddington are Senior Planning Professionals in the Environmental Planning Section of the Town Planning Branch, City Planner's Department, Cape Town, with practical interests in water quality management and integrated environmental management in the African urban environment. Dr Thornton is a registered professional ecologist and editor of the research journal,Journal of the Limnological Society of Southern Africa.     

LOW-HEAD HYDROPOWER IMPACTS ON STREAM DISSOLVED OXYGEN1

ABSTRACT: A method to evaluate the effect of hydropower development on downstream dissolved oxygen (DO) is presented for a low head dam. Water, previously aerated during release over spillways and under gates, is diverted through the hydropower facility without further aeration. The oxygen transfer that occurs as a result of air entrainment at the various release points of a dam is measured. Oxygen transfer efficiencies are calculated and incorporated into an oxygen transfer model to predict average release DO concentrations. This model is used to systematically determine the effect of hydropower operation on downstream DO. Operational alternatives are investigated and a simple operational guide is developed to mitigate the effects of hydropower operation. Combinations of reduced generation and optimal releases from the dam allow the hydropower facility to operate within DO standards.     

Research note on equity and ethics in state-promotion of agricultural products

Many state governments in the United States promote locally-produced farm products. This paper discusses issues related to the ethics and equity of such promotional programs. The paper argues that generic promotion is generally easier to justify in terms of ethics and equity than brand promotion. It also argues that informative and factual brand promotions are easier to justify than deceptive and persuasive brand promotions. Additional equity issues arising when taxpayers finance state-promotional programs are also discussed.     

The Worldwide Availability of Phosphate Rock

The US Bureau of Mines has investigated the resource potential of 201 phosphate mines and depositee in 28 market economy countries and 17 mines and deposits in the USSR and China. The 201 mines and deposits contain an estimated 34.2 billiong tonnes (t) of recoverable phosphate rock (at the demonstrated resource level), with Morocco and Western Sahara accounting for 61% (21 billion t) and with the USA accounting for 19% (6.4 billion t). The 17 mines and deposits evaluated in the USSR and China contain approximately 1.5 billion t of potentially recoverable phosphate rock. Potential annual capacity from low-cost, high-grade producing mines in the USA is estimated to decline significantly during the latter half of the next decade, and the US phosphate fertilizer industry will have to obtain phosphate rock by developing new, higher-cost, lower-grade mines or import phosphate rock to satisfy anticipated demand in the next century. Of the world's new production capacity that are likely to be developed over the next decade, slightly over one-third could be produced at an estimated 1981 cost of $40/t or less, and about two-thirds would cost in the $40 to $50 per tonne range (including a 15% rate of return). In comparison, most of the competing phosphate rock from producing mines in Morocco could be produced for less than $40/t.