Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Current Farming Locations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

In Vietnam, culturing striped catfish makes an important contribution to the Mekong Delta’s economy. Water level rise during rainy season and salt intrusion during dry season affect the water exchange and quality for this culture. Sea level rise as a consequence of climate change will worsen these influences. In this study, water level rise and salt water intrusion for three sea level rise (SLR) scenarios (i.e., +30, +50, and +75 cm) were simulated. The results showed that at SLR +50, the 3-m-flood level would spread downstream and threaten farms located in AnGiang, DongThap and CanTho provinces. Rising salinity levels for SLR +75 would reduce the window appropriate for the culture in SocTrang and BenTre provinces, and in TienGiang’s coastal districts. Next to increasing dikes to reduce the impacts, the most tenable and least disruptive option to the farming community would be to shift to a salinity tolerant strain of catfish.     

Hydroxyl radical generation by electron paramagnetic resonance as a new method to monitor ambient particulate matter composition

Epidemiological studies have demonstrated the relationship between exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) and health effects in those with cardiopulmonary diseases. The free radical generating activity of particles has been suggested as a unifying factor in the biological activity of PM in toxicological studies but so far has not been applied as a method for environmental monitoring of PM. The purpose of this study was to characterize hydroxyl radical (OH*) production by different size fractions of PM, to use as an alternative method for monitoring of PM composition and activity. We have developed a method, using electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), to measure OH* radical formation in suspensions of particles in the presence of hydrogen peroxide and 5,5-dimethyl-1-pyrroline-N-oxide (DMPO) as a specific spin-trap. Samples of ambient particulate matter (PM) of different size fractions were collected from various sites on various filters. PM deposited on filters as well as suspensions in water retain its ability to generate OH* and this generation is determined by concentration of hydrogen peroxide and soluble metals. However, large variations in OH* radical formation and kinetics were found with different soluble metals and within metals (Fe, V) with different valencies. The method was applied to environmental monitoring in Hettstedt-Zerbst, situated in South-Eastern Germany, where it showed a relation to Cu-content of PM. The method was also applied in Duisburg, where the PMI fraction showed the highest DMPO-OH* generation but was not linked to particle counts. The method integrates metal bioavailability and reactivity and can provide a better understanding of the effect of small variations in mass concentrations on health.     

Modelling 137Cs uptake in plants from undisturbed soil monoliths

A model predicting 137Cs uptake in plants was applied on data from artificially contaminated lysimeters. The lysimeter data involve three different crops (beans, ryegrass and lettuce) grown on five different soils between 3 and 5 years after contamination and where soil solution composition was monitored. The mechanistic model predicts plant uptake of 137Cs from soil solution composition. Predicted K concentrations in the rhizosphere were up to 50-fold below that in the bulk soil solution whereas corresponding 137Cs concentration gradients were always less pronounced. Predictions of crop 137Cs content based on rhizosphere soil solution compositions were generally closer to observations than those based on bulk soil solution composition. The model explained 17% (beans) to 91% (lettuce) of the variation in 137Cs activity concentrations in the plants. The model failed to predict the 137Cs activity concentration in ryegrass where uptake of the 5-year-old 137Cs from 3 soils was about 40-fold larger than predicted. The model generally underpredicted crop 137Cs concentrations at soil solution K concentration below about 1.0 mM. It is concluded that 137Cs uptake can be predicted from the soil solution composition at adequate K nutrition but that significant uncertainties remain when soil solution K is below 1 mM.     

Modelling of occupational respirable crystalline silica exposure for quantitative exposure assessment in community-based case-control studies

We describe an empirical model for exposure to respirable crystalline silica (RCS) to create a quantitative job-exposure matrix (JEM) for community-based studies. Personal measurements of exposure to RCS from Europe and Canada were obtained for exposure modelling. A mixed-effects model was elaborated, with region/country and job titles as random effect terms. The fixed effect terms included year of measurement, measurement strategy (representative or worst-case), sampling duration (minutes) and a priori exposure intensity rating for each job from an independently developed JEM (none, low, high). 23,640 personal RCS exposure measurements, covering a time period from 1976 to 2009, were available for modelling. The model indicated an overall downward time trend in RCS exposure levels of -6% per year. Exposure levels were higher in the UK and Canada, and lower in Northern Europe and Germany. Worst-case sampling was associated with higher reported exposure levels and an increase in sampling duration was associated with lower reported exposure levels. Highest predicted RCS exposure levels in the reference year (1998) were for chimney bricklayers (geometric mean 0.11 mg m(-3)), monument carvers and other stone cutters and carvers (0.10 mg m(-3)). The resulting model enables us to predict time-, job-, and region/country-specific exposure levels of RCS. These predictions will be used in the SYNERGY study, an ongoing pooled multinational community-based case-control study on lung cancer.