Decision‐Making Triggers in Adaptive Management

We analyzed whether decision‐making triggers increase accountability of adaptive‐management plans. Triggers are prenegotiated commitments in an adaptive‐management plan that specify what actions are to be taken and when on the basis of information obtained from monitoring. Triggers improve certainty that particular actions will be taken by agencies in the future. We conducted an in‐depth, qualitative review of the political and legal contexts of adaptive management and its application by U.S. federal agencies. Agencies must satisfy the judiciary that adaptive‐management plans meet substantive legal standards and comply with the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act. We examined 3 cases in which triggers were used in adaptive‐management plans: salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in the Columbia River, oil and gas development by the Bureau of Land Management, and a habitat conservation plan under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. In all the cases, key aspects of adaptive management, including controls and preidentified feedback loops, were not incorporated in the plans. Monitoring and triggered mitigation actions were limited in their enforceability, which was contingent on several factors, including which laws applied in each case and the degree of specificity in how triggers were written into plans. Other controversial aspects of these plans revolved around who designed, conducted, interpreted, and funded monitoring programs. Additional contentious issues were the level of precaution associated with trigger mechanisms and the definition of ecological baselines used as points of comparison. Despite these challenges, triggers can be used to increase accountability, by predefining points at which an adaptive management plan will be revisited and reevaluated, and thus improve the application of adaptive management in its complicated political and legal context. Detonadores de la Toma de Decisiones en el Manejo Adaptativo     

Incidence and persistence of zoonotic bacterial and protozoan pathogens in a beef cattle feedlot runoff control vegetative treatment system

Determining the survival of zoonotic pathogens in livestock manure and runoff is critical for understanding the environmental and public health risks associated with these wastes. The occurrence and persistence of the bacterial pathogens Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter spp. in a passive beef cattle feedlot runoff control-vegetative treatment system were examined over a 26-mo period. Incidence of the protozoans Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia spp. was also assessed. The control system utilizes a shallow basin to collect liquid runoff and accumulate eroded solids from the pen surfaces; when an adequate liquid volume is attained, the liquid is discharged from the basin onto a 4.5-ha vegetative treatment area (VTA) of bromegrass which is harvested as hay. Basin discharge transported E. coli O157, Campylobacter spp., and generic E. coli into the VTA soil, but without additional discharge from the basin, the pathogen prevalences decreased over time. Similarly, the VTA soil concentrations of generic E. coli initially decreased rapidly, but lower residual populations persisted. Isolation of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts from VTA samples was infrequent, indicating differences in sedimentation and/or transport in comparison to bacteria. Isolation of generic E. coli from freshly cut hay from VTA regions that received basin discharge (12 of 30 vs. 1 of 30 control samples) provided evidence for the risk of contamination; however, neither E. coli O157 or Campylobacter spp. were recovered from the hay following baling. This work indicates that the runoff control system is effective for reducing environmental risk by containing and removing pathogens from feedlot runoff.     

Improving the accuracy of sediment-associated constituent concentrations in whole storm water samples by wet-sieving

Sand-sized particles (>63 microm) in whole storm water samples collected from urban runoff have the potential to produce data with substantial bias and/or poor precision both during sample splitting and laboratory analysis. New techniques were evaluated in an effort to overcome some of the limitations associated with sample splitting and analyzing whole storm water samples containing sand-sized particles. Wet-sieving separates sand-sized particles from a whole storm water sample. Once separated, both the sieved solids and the remaining aqueous (water suspension of particles less than 63 microm) samples were analyzed for total recoverable metals using a modification of USEPA Method 200.7. The modified version digests the entire sample, rather than an aliquot, of the sample. Using a total recoverable acid digestion on the entire contents of the sieved solid and aqueous samples improved the accuracy of the derived sediment-associated constituent concentrations. Concentration values of sieved solid and aqueous samples can later be summed to determine an event mean concentration.     

Prenatal diagnosis of congenital Chagas' disease (American trypanosomiasis)

The prenatal diagnosis of congenital transmission of Chagas' disease in a pregnant woman with the indeterminate form of the disease is reported. Sonography revealed fetal hydrops at 31 weeks' gestation. Anti-Trypanosoma cruzi IgM and IgG antibodies were negative in the fetal blood sampled by cordocentesis, but T. cruzi trypomastigotes were found in its buffy coat. Owing to anemia, in utero exchange transfusion was undertaken, but fetal demise ensued. Labor was induced and a stillborn infant weighing 2030 g was delivered. The pathological examination revealed placentitis and meningoencephalitis, myocarditis and splenitis in the stillborn fetus. Amastigotes were found in the myocardium, brain and placenta. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A procedure to estimate worst-case air quality in complex terrain

Using a straightforward synoptic climatological analysis scheme, it is shown that the potential for an area to experience air quality degradation due to local sources is highest under polar subtropical highs. With respect to polar highs, the problem is most severe when the sun angle is low and snow covers the ground, and the polar high persists for a long period of time. A simple algorithm is introduced which is designed to estimate worst-case impact in a trapping valley. The potential for the accumulation of air pollution in such valleys due to the persistence of a polar high in a region, is ignored in current regulatory air quality assessments. Trapping valleys and synoptic flow stagnation often occur in wilderness areas. Refined air quality assessments are shown to be possible using a mesoscale meteorological model and a pollution dispersion model. These tools permit quantitative assessments of pollution build-up from local sources as a result of the recirculation of the local air. This tool, along with the synoptic climatological classification scheme, also permits an evaluation of the fractional contribution of long range versus local sources in the air quality degradation in a region. Areas near the center of a polar or subtropical surface high pressure system, for instance, appear to be dominated by local sources, if they exist, whereas in the vicinity of extratropical cyclones, long-range transport is usually much more important.     

Emergency room evidence on the role of alcohol intoxication in injury at work in the U.S.

Alcohol is a known risk factor for many kinds of injuries, but past research has failed to implicate alcohol intoxication as a major cause of work injuries in the U.S. Local and regional studies have indicated that alcohol-related injuries are relatively less common in work settings than non-work settings. In a six-month study, the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System collected the first national sample data on alcohol and injuries presenting to hospital emergency rooms. The study included both work injuries and product-related non-work injuries. Alcohol intoxication was ascertained by emergency room chart review. Alcohol involvement was much lower than in other studies, probably because of poor sensitivity in ascertainment, and it was 10 times lower among work injuries than non-work injuries. “Non-work activities at the time of injury” were a significant risk factor for alcohol-related injuries (odds ratio = 7). Thus, results of this national study are consistent with previous research in finding that alcohol poses a greater risk for nonwork injury than for work injury.     

Embryonic and parental preferences for incubation temperature in herring gulls: implications for parent-offspring conflict

According to Trivers (1974), parent-offspring (P-O) conflict arises because offspring are selected to solicit more care than parents are selected to provide. However, should benefits fail to increase with increasing care, the offspring optimum can be reduced to the point where predicted P-O conflict vanishes. We examined offspring demand and parental care in such a benefit-limited system in herring gulls (Larus argentatus). In this species, parents typically neglect their lasthatched (C-) egg during the final hours of hatching (pipped-egg stage), allowing mean temperature to drop by about 4°C, to near 33°C. Other studies indicate that no increased offspring benefit arises from increasing pipped egg incubation temperature above that level, but embryo damage occurs if temperature drops lower. In such a system, P-O conflict over preferred incubation temperature is predicted to be minimal or absent. We assessed phenotypic manifestations of conflict by determining incubation temperature preferences of parent and offspring independently. Temperature provided solely by parental initiative was 33.9°C (artificial eggs, corrected for embryonic heat production). Preferred incubation temperature of pipped embryos was measured by exposing them to moderate chilling (20°C) punctuated by 4-min periods of rewarming when they called. Temperature of vocally thermoregulating embryos stabilized around a mean of 32.9–33.4°C, about 0.5–1.0°C below parental preference. Acting independently, parents and embryos each maintained egg temperature at or near minimum developmentally safe levels. Results provided no evidence for phenotypic conflict, as predicted by a benefit-limited version of Trivers' P-O conflict model. Benefit limitation may also be relevant to P-O conflict in other contexts such as feeding of newly-hatched young.     

Empirical and theoretical evidence concerning the response of the earth's ice and snow cover to a global temperature increase

As a guide to the possible effects of a CO₂-induced warming on the cryosphere, we review the effects of three warm periods in the past, and out theoretical understanding of fluctuations in mountain glaciers, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, ground ice, sea ice and seasonal snow cover. Between 1890 and 1940 A.D. the glaciated area in Switzerland was reduced by over 25%. In the Hypsithermal, at about 6000 BP, ground ice in Eurasia retreated northward by several hundred kilometres. In the interglacial Stage 5e, at about 120 000 BP, global sea-level rose by over 6 m. Fluctuations of mountain glaciers depend on mesoscale “weather” and on their mechanical response to it. Any melting of the Greenland ice sheet is likely to be slow in human terms. The West Antarctic ice sheet (its base below sea-level) is susceptible to an ungrounding, and such an event may have been the cause of the sea-level rise above. The East Antarctic ice sheet is susceptible to mechanical “surges”, which might be triggered by a warming at its margin. Both an ungrounding and a surge might occupy less than 100 yr, and are potetially the most important ice changes in human terms. Modelling studies suggest that a 5°C warming would remove the Arctic pack ice in summer, and this may be the most significant effect for further climatic change.