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111.
Uncertainty Assessment for Management of Soil Contaminants with Sparse Data   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
In order for soil resources to be sustainably managed, it is necessary to have reliable, valid data on the spatial distribution of their environmental impact. However, in practice, one often has to cope with spatial interpolation achieved from few data that show a skewed distribution and uncertain information about soil contamination. We present a case study with 76 soil samples taken from a site of 15 square km in order to assess the usability of information gleaned from sparse data. The soil was contaminated with cadmium predominantly as a result of airborne emissions from a metal smelter. The spatial interpolation applies lognormal anisotropic kriging and conditional simulation for log-transformed data. The uncertainty of cadmium concentration acquired through data sampling, sample preparation, analytical measurement, and interpolation is factor 2 within 68.3 % confidence. Uncertainty predominantly results from the spatial interpolation necessitated by low sampling density and spatial heterogeneity. The interpolation data are shown in maps presenting likelihoods of exceeding threshold values as a result of a lognormal probability distribution. Although the results are not deterministic, this procedure yields a quantified and transparent estimation of the contamination, which can be used to delineate areas for soil improvement, remediation, or restricted area use, based on the decision-makers probability safety requirement.  相似文献   
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Summary Migratory orientation of robins (Erithacus rubecula) at sunset was recorded using orientation cages, under clear autumn skies. The aim of the experiments was to examine the importance of different visible sky sections for the orientation of robins. I obtained the following results: (1) Robins tested with the visible sky section limited to 90° around zenith (45° above the horizon) showed a mean orientation that coincided with the average sunset azimuth, with little scatter around the mean angle (Fig. 2). (2) When the birds were allowed a more extensive field of sky vision (maximum 160°), they chose headings on an approximate north-south axis, significantly different from tests with a restricted view of the sky (Fig. 3). (3) Experiments were also performed in which the response of robins to a mirror deflection (about 120° counterclockwise) of visual cues in the lower parts of the sunset sky was examined. The outcome indicated that visual information in the lower part of the sky may be critical for the orientation of robins (Fig. 5). These results, together with recent findings that robins captured and tested at two nearby sites show distinctly different orientation behavior in relation to experimental manipulations of the magnetic field, suggest that priorities among orientation cues may differ depending on the migratory situation encountered.  相似文献   
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Brouwer R  Nhassengo J 《Disasters》2006,30(2):234-255
Massive floods hit Mozambique in 2000.1 Many of the affected regions benefited from external aid. This paper investigates how the floods impacted on two communities in the interior of the Limpopo Valley, which did not receive significant assistance during the event and in the immediate aftermath. Drawing on the livelihood approach, it focuses on the role of two types of local resources: knowledge and social capital. The paper shows that the scale of the 2000 floods surpassed the response capacity of these resources and looks at how wealth and gender influenced access by households to the local support mechanisms that enhance survival and recovery. It appears that the floods mainly affected wealthier households, as these more frequently lost houses and cattle. The paper points to the importance of ploughs and cattle for local support mechanisms, which, in turn, most likely reduced the capacities of communities to recover from the disaster.  相似文献   
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The Arctic marine ecosystem is shaped by the seasonality of the solar cycle, spanning from 24-h light at the sea surface in summer to 24-h darkness in winter. The amount of light available for under-ice ecosystems is the result of different physical and biological processes that affect its path through atmosphere, snow, sea ice and water. In this article, we review the present state of knowledge of the abiotic (clouds, sea ice, snow, suspended matter) and biotic (sea ice algae and phytoplankton) controls on the underwater light field. We focus on how the available light affects the seasonal cycle of primary production (sympagic and pelagic) and discuss the sensitivity of ecosystems to changes in the light field based on model simulations. Lastly, we discuss predicted future changes in under-ice light as a consequence of climate change and their potential ecological implications, with the aim of providing a guide for future research.  相似文献   
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Market presence of illegal and counterfeit pesticides is now a global problem. According to data published in 2012 by the European Crop Protection Association (ECPA), illegal products represent over 10% of the global market of plant protection products. Financial benefits are the main reason for the prevalence of this practice. Counterfeit and illegal pesticides may contain substances that may pose a threat to the environment, crops, animals, and humans, inconsistent with the label and registration dossier. In Poland, action against illegal and counterfeit plant protection products is undertaken by the Main Inspectorate of Plant Health and Seed Inspection (PIORiN), the police, the prosecution, and the pesticide producers. Results of chemical analyses carried out by the Institute of Plant Protection - National Research Institute So?nicowice Branch, Pesticide Quality Testing Laboratory (PQTL IPP-NRI Sosnicowice Branch) indicate that a majority of illegal pesticides in Poland are detected in the group of herbicides. Products from parallel trade tend to have the most irregularities. This article describes the official quality control system of plant protection products in Poland and presents the analytical methods for testing pesticides suspected of adulteration and recent test results.  相似文献   
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Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were determined by gas chromatography in 241 placentas from cotton-growing regions, 121 placentas from an urban area (city of Osh), and 146 placentas from unpolluted mountain regions of Kyrgyzstan. Manifestations of disease were recorded in the mothers during pregnancy and parturition and in their newborns during the first 6 days of life. OCPs were detected in 240 out of 508 placentas (47.2%), with increased incidence in the two polluted regions (65%), particularly in placentas from women living near former pesticide storehouses and agro air-strips (99%), but only in 2.7% of placentas from the unpolluted region. α-, β-, and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH); DDT; DDE; aldrin; and heptachlor were detected. The sum of concentrations of all OCPs (total OCPs) was calculated for each of the 240 placentas with detectable OCPs (median 9.5 μg/kg placenta, mean 88.3 μg/kg, range 0.1–3070 μg/kg). The incidence of health problems in four subgroups of this data set, with increasing levels of total OCPs, was compared with the incidence of health problems in the group of 268 placentas, where OCPs were undetectable. Relative risk of health problems in both, mothers and newborns, increased significantly, in a concentration-dependent manner, with increasing levels of total OCPs (p?<?0.0001). Health complications with increased incidence in OCP-exposed newborns included, i.a., low birth weight, congenital malformations, infections, and stillbirths, in OCP-exposed mothers preterm delivery, (pre-)eclampsia/gestosis, and frequency of hospitalizations after delivery (infections). Women living near former pesticide storehouses and agro airstrips should be considered as being at risk. Reduction of exposure is urgently needed.  相似文献   
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