Minimum viable metapopulation size, extinction debt, and the conservation of a declining species.

A key question facing conservation biologists is whether declines in species' distributions are keeping pace with landscape change, or whether current distributions overestimate probabilities of future persistence. We use metapopulations of the marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas aurinia in the United Kingdom as a model system to test for extinction debt in a declining species. We derive parameters for a metapopulation model (incidence function model, IFM) using information from a 625-km2 landscape where habitat patch occupancy, colonization, and extinction rates for E. aurinia depend on patch connectivity, area, and quality. We then show that habitat networks in six extant metapopulations in 16-km2 squares were larger, had longer modeled persistence times (using IFM), and higher metapopulation capacity (lambdaM) than six extinct metapopulations. However, there was a > 99% chance that one or more of the six extant metapopulations would go extinct in 100 years in the absence of further habitat loss. For 11 out of 12 networks, minimum areas of habitat needed for 95% persistence of metapopulation simulations after 100 years ranged from 80 to 142 ha (approximately 5-9% of land area), depending on the spatial location of habitat. The area of habitat exceeded the estimated minimum viable metapopulation size (MVM) in only two of the six extant metapopulations, and even then by only 20%. The remaining four extant networks were expected to suffer extinction in 15-126 years. MVM was consistently estimated as approximately 5% of land area based on a sensitivity analysis of IFM parameters and was reduced only marginally (to approximately 4%) by modeling the potential impact of long-distance colonization over wider landscapes. The results suggest a widespread extinction debt among extant metapopulations of a declining species, necessitating conservation management or reserve designation even in apparent strongholds. For threatened species, metapopulation modeling is a potential means to identify landscapes near to extinction thresholds, to which conservation measures can be targeted for the best chance of success.     

EQUILIBRIUM AND TRANSIENT GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER RESOURCES IN WALES1

ABSTRACT: A methodology has been developed to predict the responses of a range of water supply sources in Wales to global warming scenarios. Hydrologically effective rainfall is predicted from temperature and precipitation for each season based on site specific formulae developed using the Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System (MORECS) and UK Surface Water Archive databases. Comparisons are then made between the effects predicted for the scenarios established from equilibrium simulations and the new Hadley Centre High Resolution Model (UKHI) transient mode results. Though very different, both suggest increased stress on water resources late in the hydrological year.     

Recovery of crustacean zooplankton communities from acidification in Killarney Park,Ontario, 1971-2000: pH 6 as a recovery goal

Despite reductions in atmospheric SO4(2-) deposition and resultant decreases in surface water acidity, widespread biological recovery from acidification has not yet been documented. Temporal trends in crustacean zooplankton species richness (number of species) and composition were examined between 1971-2000 in 46 Killarney Park lakes, Ontario, Canada, to assess the degree of biological recovery in lakes with significant water quality improvements, i.e. pH now > 6, compared to 2 other groups: i) lakes which never acidified; and ii) lakes which are still acidified (pH < 6). Time trends in species richness could not be distinguished among the 3 groups of lakes, nor did changes in species richness indicate recovery. In contrast, the zooplankton community composition of lakes in which the pH increased to above 6, as measured by a multivariate index of species abundances, changed from a "damaged" state to one typical of neutral lakes. Some recovery in composition was also documented for the acidic lakes. While still acidic, the pH levels of these lakes have risen. The extent and pace of recovery in Killarney Provincial Park bodes well for the future of other acidified regions in North America and Europe.     

Planning STI/HIV prevention among refugees and mobile populations: situation assessment of Sudanese refugees

This article reflects an investigation of knowledge, attitudes and behaviours and HIV/STI prevalence of Sudanese refugees and Ethiopian sex workers in 1992. It represents one of the earliest such investigations within an African refugee population. The investigation took place in the Dimma refugee settlement in south-western Ethiopia and study participants included Sudanese refugee men and women and Ethiopian female sex workers. Methods used for this investigation included focus group discussions, behavioural surveys and serologic testing. The main outcome measures of the investigation were HIV/STI knowledge, attitudes and behaviours and biological markers for HIV, syphilis and herpes simplex 2. The study findings indicate that in the early 1990s, knowledge about AIDS and condom use was low among Sudanese refugee women and not one reported having ever used a condom. Furthermore, sexual contact between refugee men and sex workers was frequent during the time of this study and the prevalence of HIV and other STIs was high. The results confirm a widely held assumption that highly mobile and transient populations in Africa are susceptible to STIs and HIV, in large part due to their knowledge, attitudes and behaviours.     

Community air monitoring for pesticides. Part 3: using health-based screening levels to evaluate results collected for a year

The CA Department of Pesticide Regulation (CDPR) and the CA Air Resources Board monitored 40 pesticides, including five degradation products, in Parlier, CA, to determine if its residents were exposed to any of these pesticides and, if so, in what amounts. They included 1,3-dichloropropene, acrolein, arsenic, azinphos-methyl, carbon disulfide, chlorpyrifos and its degradation product, chlorthalonil, copper, cypermethrin, diazinon and its degradation product, dichlorvos, dicofol, dimethoate and its degradation product, diuron, endosulfan and its degradation product, S-ethyl dipropylcarbamothioate (EPTC), formaldehyde, malathion and its degradation product, methyl isothiocyanate (MITC), methyl bromide, metolachlor, molinate, norflurazon, oryzalin, oxyfluorfen, permethrin, phosmet, propanil, propargite, simazine, SSS-tributylphosphorotrithioate, sulfur, thiobencarb, trifluralin, and xylene. Monitoring was conducted 3 days per week for a year. Twenty-three pesticides and degradation products were detected. Acrolein, arsenic, carbon disulfide, chlorpyrifos, copper, formaldehyde, methyl bromide, MITC, and sulfur were detected in more than half the samples. Since no regulatory ambient air standards exist for these pesticides, CDPR developed advisory, health-based non-cancer screening levels (SLs) to assess acute, subchronic, and chronic exposures. For carcinogenic pesticides, CDPR assessed risk using cancer potency values. Amongst non-carcinogenic agricultural use pesticides, only diazinon exceeded its SL. For carcinogens, 1,3-dichloropropene concentrations exceeded its cancer potency value. Based on these findings, CDPR has undertaken a more comprehensive evaluation of 1,3-dichloropropene, diazinon, and the closely related chlorpyrifos that was frequently detected. Four chemicals—acrolein, arsenic, carbon disulfide, and formaldehyde—sometimes used as pesticides were detected, although no pesticidal use was reported in the area during this study. Their presence was most likely due to vehicular or industrial emissions.     

Modeling of road traffic noise and estimated human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, USA

Environmental noise is a major source of public complaints. Noise in the community causes physical and socio-economic effects and has been shown to be related to adverse health impacts. Noise, however, has not been actively researched in the United States compared with the European Union countries in recent years. In this research, we aimed at modeling road traffic noise and analyzing human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, United States. We modeled road traffic noise levels using the United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Traffic Noise Model implemented in SoundPLAN?. After analyzing noise levels with raster, vector and fa?ade maps, we estimated human exposure to high noise levels. Accurate digital elevation models and building heights were derived from Light Detection And Ranging survey datasets and building footprint boundaries. Traffic datasets were collected from the Georgia Department of Transportation and the Atlanta Regional Commission. Noise level simulation was performed with 62 computers in a distributed computing environment. Finally, the noise-exposed population was calculated using geographic information system techniques. Results show that 48% of the total county population [N=870,166 residents] is potentially exposed to 55 dB(A) or higher noise levels during daytime. About 9% of the population is potentially exposed to 67 dB(A) or higher noises. At nighttime, 32% of the population is expected to be exposed to noise levels higher than 50 dB(A). This research shows that large-scale traffic noise estimation is possible with the help of various organizations. We believe that this research is a significant stepping stone for analyzing community health associated with noise exposures in the United States.     

Modeling the Highly Dynamic Loading of Mercury Species in the Carson River and Lahontan Reservoir System,Nevada

The semiarid Carson River — Lahontan Reservoir system in Nevada, United States is highly contaminated with mercury (Hg) from historic mining with contamination dispersed throughout channel and floodplain deposits. Work builds on previous research using a fully dynamic numerical model to outline a complete conceptualization of the system that includes transport and fate of both sorbed and dissolved constituents. Flow regimes are defined to capture significant mechanisms of Hg loading that include diffusion, channel pore water advective flux, bank erosion, and overbank deposition. Advective flux of pore water is required to reduce dilution and likely represents colloidal‐mediated transport. Fluvial concentrations span several orders of magnitude with spatial and temporal trends simulated within 10‐24% error for all modeled species. Over the simulation period, 1991‐2008, simulated loads are 582 kg/yr (THg²⁺), 4.72 kg/yr (DHg²⁺), 0.54 kg/yr (TMeHg), and 0.07 kg/yr (DMeHg) with bank erosion processes the principal mechanism of loading for both total and dissolved species. Prediction error in the reservoir is within one‐order of magnitude and considered qualitative; however, simulated results indicate internal cycling within the receiving reservoir accounts for only 1% of the reservoir's water column contamination, with river channel sediment sources more influential in the upper reservoir and bank erosion processes having greater influence in the lower reservoir.