PREDICTING FECAL COLIFORM BACTERIA LEVELS IN THE CHARLES RIVER,MASSACHUSETTS, USA1

In Massachusetts, the Charles River Watershed Association conducts a regular water quality monitoring and public notification program in the Charles River Basin during the recreational season to inform users of the river's health. This program has relied on laboratory analyses of river samples for fecal coliform bacteria levels, however, results are not available until at least 24 hours after sampling. To avoid the need for laboratory analyses, ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform bacteria concentrations and the probabilities of exceeding the Massachusetts secondary contact recreation standard for bacteria based on meteorological conditions and streamflow. The OLS models resulted in adjusted R²s ranging from 50 to 60 percent. An uncertainty analysis reveals that of the total variability of fecal coliform bacteria concentrations, 45 percent is explained by the OLS regression model, 15 percent is explained by both measurement and space sampling error, and 40 percent is explained by time sampling error. Higher accuracy in future bacteria forecasting models would likely result from reductions in laboratory measurement errors and improved sampling designs.     

Challenges to achieving a successful transition to a low carbon economy in South Africa: examples from poor urban communities

South Africa faces several development challenges including those linked to climate change. Energy usage in South Africa, for example, is already constrained because of a range of development challenges (the dependence on cheap coal as a heating source; energy availability; access; affordability of alternative energy sources; and a range of health impacts, including air pollution). Notwithstanding calls for a transition to a low carbon economy, there have been few, recent assessments in South Africa of the costs associated with such a transition, particularly the social and economic costs for the poor who use energy in a variety of ways. In this paper we focus on trying to unravel some of the complex energy-use behaviour including understanding what drives consumers in resource-poor areas to choose and use persistently risky energy options. Analysis of qualitative data in two township areas, Doornkop and Kwaguqa, shows that township households, whether electrified or not, continue to burn coal. In both study areas, an estimated 80% of electrified households burn coal for space heating and cooking and also make use of multiple fuel sources for a range of activities. Although the major obstacles preventing people from discontinuing domestic coal combustion are poverty, the ready availability and social acceptability of coal together with other social customs cannot be underrated. This paper therefore highlights some of the persistent challenges associated with sustainable energy transitions in South Africa including implications for improved mitigation and adaptation for the energy sector in wider climate change efforts.     

Identifying fecal sources in a selected catchment reach using multiple source-tracking tools

Given known limitations of current microbial source-tracking (MST) tools, emphasis on small, simple study areas may enhance interpretations of fecal contamination sources in streams. In this study, three MST tools-Escherichia coli repetitive element polymerase chain reaction (rep-PCR), coliphage typing, and Bacteroidales 16S rDNA host-associated markers-were evaluated in a selected reach of Plum Creek in south-central Nebraska. Water-quality samples were collected from six sites. One reach was selected for MST evaluation based on observed patterns of E. coli contamination. Despite high E. coli concentrations, coliphages were detected only once among water samples, precluding their use as a MST tool in this setting. Rep-PCR classification of E. coli isolates from both water and sediment samples supported the hypothesis that cattle and wildlife were dominant sources of fecal contamination, with minor contributions by horses and humans. Conversely, neither ruminant nor human sources were detected by Bacteroidales markers in most water samples. In bed sediment, ruminant- and human-associated Bacteroidales markers were detected throughout the interval from 0 to 0.3 m, with detections independent of E. coli concentrations in the sediment. Although results by E. coli-based and Bacteroidales-based MST methods led to similar interpretations, detection of Bacteroidales markers in sediment more commonly than in water indicates that different tools to track fecal contamination (in this case, tools based on Bacteroidales DNA and E. coli isolates) may have varying relevance to the more specific goal of tracking the sources of E. coli in watersheds. This is the first report of simultaneous, toolbox approach application of a library-based and marker-based MST analyses to flowing surface water.     

Strahlenbelastung durch Umwelt, Zivilisation und Medizin

Der Vergleich der Strahlendosis aus Umwelt, Zivilisation und Medizin besagt, da? jeder dieser drei Bereiche wesentlich zu der Dosis beitragen kann, die ein Mensch w?hrend seines Lebens erh?lt. Es zeigt sich aber auch, da? es m?glich ist, die Strahlenbelastung zu reduzieren. So steigt bei erh?hter W?rmed?mmung und der damit verbundenen geringeren Ventilation eines Raumes bei bestimmten Baustoffen die Radioaktivit?t in diesen R?umen an. Manche Regionen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und in der Welt weisen erhebliche Unterschiede durch terrestrische und kosmische Strahlung auf. Diese Dosis kann bei unterschiedlichen Flugrouten vermieden werden. Die eingesparten Werte k?nnen, z.B., bezogen auf die Gonadendosis, die Strahlenexposition im Rahmen einer R?ntgendiagnostik ausgleichen.     

Modeling depth-variant and domain-specific sorption and biodegradation in dual-permeability media

A dual-permeability model (S_1D_DUAL) was developed to simulate the transport of land-applied pesticides in macroporous media. In this model, one flow domain was represented by the bulk matrix and the other by the preferential flow domain (PFD) where water and chemicals move at faster rates. The model assumed the validity of Darcian flow and the advective-dispersive solute transport in each of the two domains with inter-domain transfer of water and solutes due to pressure and concentration gradients. It was conceptualized that sorption and biodegradation rates vary with soil depth as well as in each of the two flow domains. In addition to equilibrium sorption, kinetic sorption was simulated in the PFD. Simulations were conducted to evaluate the combined effects of preferential flow, depth- and domain-variant sorption, and degradation on leaching of two pesticides: one with strong sorption potential (trifluralin) and the other with weak sorption potential (atrazine). Simulation results for a test case showed that water flux in the PFD was three times more than in the matrix for selected storm events. When equilibrium sorption was considered, the simulated profile of trifluralin in each domain was similar; however, the atrazine profile was deeper in the PFD than in the bulk matrix under episodic storm events. With an assumption of negligible sorption in the PFD, both the atrazine and the trifluralin profiles moved twice deeper into the PFD. The simulated concentrations of the chemicals were several orders higher in the PFD than in the matrix, even at deeper depths. The volume fraction of the macropores and the sorption and biodegradation properties of the chemicals could also affect the amount of pesticides leaving the root zone. For an intense storm event, slow sorption reaction rates in the PFD produced higher breakthrough concentrations of atrazine at the bottom of the simulated soil profile, thus posing the risk for breakthrough of chemicals from the root zone.