Implementation of ecological modeling as an effective management and investigation tool: Lake Kinneret as a case study

The need for scientifically based management of lakes, as key water resources, requires the establishment of quantitative relationships between in-lake processes responsible for water quality (WQ) and the intensity of major management measures (MM, e.g. nutrient loading). In this paper, we estimate the impact of potential changes in nutrient loading on the Lake Kinneret ecosystem. Following validation of the model against a comprehensive dataset, we applied an approach that goes beyond scenario testing by linking the lake ecosystem model DYRESM–CAEDYM with a set of ecosystem variables included in a pre-assessed system of water quality indices. The emergent properties of the ecosystem predicted from the model simulations were also compared with lake data as a form of indirect validation of the model. Model output, in good agreement with lake data, indicated differential effects of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient loading on concentrations, and major in-lake fluxes, of TN and TP, and dynamics and algal community structure. Both model output and lake data indicated a strong relationship between nitrogen loading and in-lake TN values. This relationship is not apparent for phosphorus and only a weak relationship exists between phosphorus loading and in-lake TP. The modeling results, expressed in terms of water quality, allowed establishment of critical/threshold values for the nutrient loads. Implementation of the ecological modeling supplemented with the quantified set of WQ indices allowed us to take a step towards establishment of the association between permissible ranges for water quality and major management measures, i.e. towards sustainable management.     

Effects of zooplankton diel vertical migration on a phytoplankton community: A scenario analysis of the underlying mechanisms

A mechanistic model was applied to study the influence of diurnal vertical migration (DVM) of planktonic crustaceans on the succession and composition of the phytoplankton community. While zooplankton was restricted to only one functional group, the phytoplankton community was divided into two functional groups which are distinguished by their maximum growth rates and vulnerability to zooplankton grazing. DVM causes a pulsed grazing regime and may also entail a corresponding reduction of the cumulative daily rates of ingestion and losses of zooplankton. To study the relative importance of these two mechanisms of DVM to phytoplankton we performed a scenario analysis consisting of 5 different scenarios. The results show that DVM has a strong influence on the phytoplankton community. Well edible algae benefit during the first 3–4 weeks of summer stratification by reduced daily grazing. The typical shift from small, well edible algae to larger, poorly or non-edible phytoplankton is distinctly delayed. Under the assumption of unchanged daily grazing, however, a pulsed grazing regime has nearly no influence on the resulting phytoplankton composition. As similar effects are also found for completely non-edible phytoplankton, indirect effects via phosphorus availability must be assumed. Thus, the scenario analysis reveals that the observed effects of DVM on phytoplankton can be explained by a combination of two mechanisms: (1) reduction of the daily zooplankton grazing, and (2) changed assimilation and remineralisation of phosphorus. Surprisingly and in contradiction to earlier reports there is almost no DVM effect on phytoplankton due to the sole action of a pulsed grazing regime.