Participatory scenario planning to facilitate human–wildlife coexistence

Fostering human–wildlife coexistence requires transdisciplinary approaches that integrate multiple sectors, account for complexity and uncertainty, and ensure stakeholder participation. One such approach is participatory scenario planning, but to date, this approach has not been used in human–wildlife contexts. We devised a template for how participatory scenario planning can be applied to identify potential avenues for improving human–wildlife coexistence. We drew on 3 conceptual building blocks, namely the SEEDS framework, the notion of critical uncertainties, and the three-horizons technique. To illustrate the application of the proposed template, we conducted a case study in the Zambezi region of Namibia. We held 5 multistakeholder workshops that involved local people as well as numerous nongovernment and government stakeholders. We identified 14 important wildlife species that generated multiple services and disservices. The subsequent benefits and burdens, in turn, were inequitably distributed among stakeholders. Government actors played particularly influential roles in shaping social-ecological outcomes. We identified 2 critical uncertainties for the future: the nature of governance (fragmented vs. collaborative) and the type of wildlife economy (hunting vs. photography based). Considering these uncertainties resulted in 4 plausible scenarios describing future human–wildlife coexistence. Stakeholders did not agree on a single preferred scenario, but nevertheless agreed on several high-priority strategies. Bridging the remaining gaps among actors will require ongoing deliberation among stakeholders. Navigating the complex challenges posed by living with wildlife requires moving beyond disciplinary approaches. To that end, our template could prove useful in many landscapes around the world.     

Monitoring individual exposure. Measurements of volatile organic compounds in breathing-zone air, drinking water, and exhaled breath

Methods for determining individual exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOC) during normal daily activities were field tested on university student volunteers in Texas and North Carolina. The equipment tested included a personal monitor employing Tenax GC® to collect organic vapors for later analysis by GC-MS, and a specially designed spirometer for collecting samples of expired human breath on duplicate Tenax cartridges. The personal monitor and spirometer proved feasible for collecting abundant quantitative data on most of the 15 target organics. Air exposures to many VOC varied widely, sometimes over three orders of magnitude, among students on the same campus who had been monitored over the same time period and day. A log-linear relationship between breathing-zone air exposures and concentrations in exhaled breath was suggested for three chemicals: tetrachloroethylene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and vinylidene chloride. Air was the main route of exposure for all target compounds except the two trihalomethanes (chloroform and bromodichloromethane), which were transmitted mainly through water. Estimated total daily intake through air and water of the target organics ranged from 0.3 to 12.6 mg, with 1,1,1-trichloroethane at the highest concentrations in both geographic areas.     

A guide towards climate change adaptation in the livestock sector: adaptation options and the role of robust decision-making tools for their economic appraisal

Economic appraisal and technical effectiveness of adaptation options are key criteria for judging climate change adaptation investment decisions in all sectors. Yet relatively little methodological guidance exists for determining the most appropriate appraisal techniques for different adaptation options. This paper provides adaptation options and scopes relevant appraisal methods in agriculture focussing on livestock production specifically. We find that for many adaptation options for livestock agriculture, standard (expected) cost-benefit analysis is an appropriate tool. For adaptation options requiring long lead times or those with long lifetimes, techniques incorporating uncertainty (‘robust’ methods) are more suitable, including real options analysis, portfolio analysis and robust decision-making. From a comprehensive list of adaptation options in the livestock sector, we identify the most appropriate appraisal technique for each option and describe how the robust appraisal tools could be applied to heat stress, flood risk and water management.

     

Macrobenthic community colonization and community development in dredged material disposal habitats off coastal Louisiana

We examined marine benthic macroinvertebrate colonization and community structure at multiple spatial scales (study areas, reference and disposal sites, and depth zones within sites) within a 3-day period at three relatively widely separated (ca 60 km) dredged material disposal areas (Mermentau and Atchafalaya Rivers and Freshwater Bayou) in coastal Louisiana. Study areas had different histories of dredged material disposal, but all three are subject to frequent natural habitat disturbances (e.g. freshets). Nine phyla and 51 taxa were represented among the three study areas at reference (R) and disposal (D) sites (Freshwater Bayou: 21(R), 18 (D); Mermentau River: 14 (R), 17 (D) and Atchafalaya River: 38 (R), 40 (D)). Only 15 taxa were common to all three study areas. At the Freshwater Bayou, average taxa richness and abundance responded to water depth, not sites. These response variables averaged higher mean values at the Mermentau River disposal than at the reference site. No consistent pattern in the average of these response variables was detected between sites at the Atchafalaya River. Multidimensional scaling ordination and non-parametric multivariate inferential analysis provided a distinctly different picture of community structure within study areas compared to parametric analyses. A relatively moderate to strong separation in community structure between sites was detected depending on study area. Non-parametric multivariate inferential analysis detected significant differences in internal community structure at the scale of stations and sites within study areas. The weight of evidence suggests that frequent natural disturbances explain differences in macrobenthic animal community structure more than effects of dredged material disposal.     

Concentrations of phthalate esters and identification of other additives in PVC children’s toys

This study was intended to provide data on the composition of soft PVC toys, addressing the widest practicable range of chemical additives and including non-phthalate additives. The study also included toys from as many countries as possible, since for many, no data were available. A total of 72 toys were purchased in 17 countries. The majority (64) were PVC or had PVC sections. In almost all the soft PVC toys analysed, phthalates comprised a sizeable proportion (most frequently 10–40%) of the total weight of the toy. The predominant phthalates detected were diisononyl phthalate (DINP) and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP). Other phthalates identified in high concentrations in some toys include isomeric mixes of diisooctyl phthalate (DIOP) and diisodecyl phthalate (DIDP). The estrogenic chemical nonylphenol was isolated from 13 toys, while 2 toys were found to contain the fungicide Fungitrol 11 (Folpet). 78% of PVC toys contained one or more extractable organic compounds in addition to those reported above. Some of these data have been released previously by Greenpeace and made available on the internet.This report, however, which is intended for a technically expert audience, has been peer reviewed and contains further analytical data that have not been published before.     

Nomadic pastoralists adopt subsistence strategies that maximise long-term household survival

Summary Optimality approaches have been used to investigate the adaptiveness of human subsistence strategies mainly in hunter-gatherer societies. However the static optimality models used are not suitable for investigating the long-term costs and benefits of decisions, especially in societies where wealth is accumulated and hence resources gained in one year have an influence on future years. Here I use dynamic optimality modelling to investigate the adaptiveness of a subsistence strategy in the Gabbra, a nomadic pastoralist group. I show that herders forego short-term gain in favour of long-term household survival. This is done by herders sometimes manipulating the life histories of their sheep. In herds where the breeding rate has been slowed, by restricting ewes access to males, females have greater longevity, but fewer offspring per year, than in unmanipulated herds. Models maximising offtake from the herd predict that herd breeding-rate should never be slowed. Models maximising short-term household survival predict herd-breeding rate should always be slowed. Models of long-term household survival predict that herd-breeding rate should be slowed only by relatively wealthy households. This is the behaviour observed. Poor and wealthy house-holds adopt different behaviours, yet all are following optimal strategies for their own level of wealth, that maximise their long-term survival. This is the behaviour that would be predicted on the basis of evolutionary theory, given that a family takes many years to be raised. Correspondence to: R. Mace     

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01381-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.