Adaptive Water Resource Planning in the South Saskatchewan River Basin: Use of Scenarios of Hydroclimatic Variability and Extremes

The South Saskatchewan River Basin is one of Canada's most threatened watersheds, with water supplies in most subbasins over‐allocated. In 2013, stakeholders representing irrigation districts, the environment, and municipalities collaborated with researchers and consultants to explore opportunities to improve the resiliency of the management of the Oldman and South Saskatchewan River subbasins. Streamflow scenarios for 2025‐2054 were constructed by the novel approach of regressing historical river flows against indices of large‐scale ocean‐atmosphere climate oscillations to derive statistical streamflow models, which were then run using projected climate indices from global climate models. The impacts of some of the most extreme scenarios were simulated using the hydrologic mass‐balance model Operational Analysis and Simulation of Integrated Systems (OASIS). Based on stakeholder observations, the project participants proposed and evaluated potential risk management and adaption strategies, e.g., modifying existing infrastructure, building new infrastructure, changing operations to supplement environmental flows, reducing demand, and sharing supply. The OASIS model was applied interactively at live modeling sessions with stakeholders to explore practical adaptation strategies. Our results, which serve as recommendations for policy makers, showed that forecast‐based rationing together with new expanded storage could dramatically reduce water shortages.     

Management of the Spring Snowmelt Recession in Regulated Systems

In an effort to restore predictable ecologically relevant spring snowmelt recession flow patterns in rivers regulated by dams, this study defined a methodology by which spring flow regimes can be modeled in regulated systems from the quantifiable characteristics of spring snowmelt recessions in unregulated rivers. An analysis of eight unregulated rivers across the Sierra Nevada mountain range in California found that unregulated systems behaved similarly with respect to seasonal spring patterns and recession limb curvature, and thus prescribed flows could be designed in a manner that mimics those predictable characteristics. Using the methodology to quantify spring recession flows in terms of a daily percent decrease in flow, a series of flow recession scenarios were created for application in an existing hydrodynamic model for the regulated Rubicon River. The modeling results showed that flow recessions with slow ramping rates similar to those observed in unregulated rivers (less than 10% per day) were likely to be protective of native aquatic species, such as the Foothill yellow‐legged frog, while flows that receded at greater rates would likely result in desiccation of egg masses and potential stranding of tadpoles and fry. Furthermore, recession rates of less than 10% per day provided the most spatially diverse hydraulic habitat in the modeled domain for an appropriate duration in spring to support all native species guilds and maximize aquatic biodiversity.     

Discharge and Nutrient Transport between Lakes in a Hydrologically Complex Area of Voyageurs National Park,Minnesota, 2010‐2012

An acoustic Doppler velocity meter (ADVM) was deployed in the narrows between Namakan and Kabetogama Lakes in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, from November 3, 2010, through October 3, 2012. The ADVM can account for wind, seiche, and changing flow direction in hydrologically complex areas. The objectives were to (1) estimate discharge and document the direction of water flow, (2) assess whether specific conductance can be used to determine flow direction, and (3) document nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations at the narrows. The discharge direction through the narrows was seasonal. Water generally flowed out of Kabetogama Lake and into Namakan Lake throughout the ice‐covered season. During spring, water flow was generally from Namakan Lake to Kabetogama Lake. During the summer and fall, the water flowed in both directions, affected in part by wind. Water flowed into Namakan Lake 70% of water year 2011 and 56% of water year 2012. Nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations were highest during the summer months when water‐flow direction was unpredictable. The use of an ADVM was effective for assessing flow direction and provided flow direction under ice. The results indicated the eutrophic Kabetogama Lake may have a negative effect on the more pristine Namakan Lake. The results also provide data on the effects of the current water‐level management plan and may help determine if adjustments are necessary to help protect the aquatic ecosystem of Voyageurs National Park.     

Social Network Analysis of Multi-level Linkages: A Swedish Case Study on Northern Forest-Based Sectors

Forest use in Northern Sweden is being influenced both by global trends and local situations. This results in interactions between numerous groups that may impact local forest governance. Social network analysis can here provide insight into the total pattern of positive, negative, and cross-level interactions within user group community structure (within and among groups). This study analyses interactions within selected renewable resource sectors in two northern Swedish municipalities, both with regard to whether they are positive, neutral, or negative, as well as with regard to how local actors relate to actors across levels, e.g., with regional, national, and international actors. The study illustrates that many interactions both within and outside a given sector are seen as neutral or positive, and that considerable interaction and impact are defined as national and in some cases even international. It also indicates that the impact of Sweden’s only existing Model Forest may to some extent constitute a bridge between different sectors and levels, in comparison with the interactions between sectors in a municipality where such a cooperation mechanism does not exist.     

Region-wide retreats from lower elevations of range-restricted birds across the Northern Andes

Local studies show upslope shifts in the distribution of tropical birds in response to warming temperatures. Unanswered is whether these upward shifts occur regionally across many species. We considered a nearly 2000-km length of the Northern Andes, where deforestation, temperature, and extreme weather events have increased during the past decades. Range-restricted bird species are particularly vulnerable to such events and occur in exceptionally high numbers in this region. Using abundant crowd-sourced data from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology database, eBird, and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, we documented distributions of nearly 200 such species. We examined whether species shifted their elevational ranges over time by comparing observed versus expected occurrences below a low elevational threshold and above a high elevational threshold for 2 periods: before and after 2005. We predicted fewer observations at lower elevations (those below the threshold) and more at upper elevations (those above the threshold) after 2005. We also tested for deforestation effects at lower elevations within each species’ distribution ranges. We compared relative forest loss with the differences between observed and expected occurrences across the elevational range. Species’ retreats from lower elevations were ubiquitous and involved a 23–40% decline in prevalence at the lowest elevations. Increases at higher elevations were not consistent. The retreats occurred across a broad spectrum of species, from predominantly lowland to predominantly highland. Because deforestation showed no relationship with species retreats, we contend that a warming climate is the most parsimonious explanation for such shifts.     

Verification results of jet resonance-enhanced multiphoton ionization as a real-time PCDD/F emission monitor

A jet resonance-enhanced multiphoton ionization (REMPI) monitor was tested on a hazardous-waste-fired boiler for its ability to determine concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDDs/Fs). Jet REMPI is a real-time instrument capable of highly selective and sensitive (from parts per billion to parts per trillion) detection of a broad range of aromatic compounds, including a number of air toxic compounds. The PCDD/F toxic equivalency (TEQ) value was derived from a predetermined correlation (R ² = 0.74) with monochlorobenzene (MClBz). This relationship was applied to nine subsequent jet REMPI on-line measurements of MClBz and parallel, standard extractive sampling for PCDD/F TEQ. For high waste-firing rates, with a range of PCDD/F TEQ values between 3.9 and 6.0 ng TEQ/m³, the TEQ values predicted by jet REMPI had a relative difference of 26% with the standard EPA Method 23 results. At low waste-firing rates (0.9–1.6 ng TEQ/m³), the relative difference increased to 219%. This limited testing shows that jet REMPI has promise as an on-line diagnostic monitor, providing feedback on the effects on PCDD/F emissions of operating parameter changes such as fuel feed interruptions or air pollution control failures.     

Proximal exposure of public schools and students to major roadways: a nationwide US survey

This study addresses the effect of urban planning and road development on the health risk of students attending schools near major roadways. The proximity of public schools and students was quantified to Interstate, US and state highways in nine large Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) of the USA. In total among the surveyed schools and students, over 30% fell within 400 m of a major roadway and over 10% were within 100 m. For some MSAs almost half of the student population attended schools near (≤400m) major roadways, resulting in a potentially increased risk for asthma and other chronic respiratory problems, especially in schools representing the urban fringe locale. It was concluded that proximity of major roadways should be an important factor in considering sites for new schools and developing policies for reducing the exposure in existing schools. The findings provide an important reference point for coordinating future urban development, transportation and environmental policies.     

Modelling the dispersion of treated wastewater in a shallow coastal wind-driven environment,Geographe Bay,Western Australia: implications for environmental management

Numerical models are useful for predicting the transport and fate of contaminants in dynamic marine environments, and are increasingly a practical solution to environmental impact assessments. In this study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and field data were used to validate a far-field dispersion model that, in turn, was used to determine the fate of treated wastewater (TWW) discharged to the ocean via a submarine ocean outfall under hypothetical TWW flows. The models were validated with respect to bottom and surface water current speed and direction, and in situ measurements of total nitrogen and faecal coliforms. Variations in surface and bottom currents were accurately predicted by the model as were nutrient and coliform concentrations. Results indicated that the ocean circulation was predominately wind driven, evidenced by relatively small oscillations in the current speeds along the time-scale of the tide, and that dilution mixing zones were orientated in a predominantly north-eastern direction from the outfall and parallel to the coastline. Outputs of the model were used to determine the ‘footprint’ of the TWW plume under a differing discharge scenario and, particularly, whether the resultant changes in TWW contaminants, total nitrogen and faecal coliforms would meet local environmental quality objectives (EQO) for ecosystem integrity, shellfish harvesting and primary recreation. Modelling provided a practical solution for predicting the dilution of contaminants under a hypothetical discharge scenario and a means for determining the aerial extent of exclusion zones, where the EQOs for shellfish harvesting and primary recreation may not always be met. Results of this study add to the understanding of regional discharge conditions and provide a practical case study for managing impacts to marine environments under a differing TWW discharge scenario, in comparison to an existing scenario.