A microcomputer-based emergency response system*

A microcomputer-based system was developed to provide local officials responsible for disaster management with assistance during the crucial period immediately following a disaster, a period when incorrect decisions could have an adverse impact on the surrounding community.
While the paper focuses on a potential disaster resulting from an accident at a commercial nuclear power generating facility, the system can be applied to other disastrous situations. Decisions involving evacuation, shelter and the deployment of resources must be made in response to floods, earthquakes, accidents in the transportation of hazardous materials, and hurricanes to name a few examples.
As a decision aid, the system was designed to enhance data display by presenting the data in the form of representations (i.e. road maps, evacuation routes, etc.) as well as in list or tabular form. The potential impact of the event (i.e. the release of radioactive material) was displayed in the form of a cloud, representing the dispersion of the radioactive material. In addition, an algorithm was developed to assist the manager in assigning response resources to demands.
The capability for modelling the impact of a disaster is discussed briefly, with reference to a system installed in the communities surrounding the Indian Point nuclear power plant in New York State.
Results demonstrate both the technical feasibility of incorporating microcomputers indecision support systems for radiological emergency response, and the acceptance of such systems by those public officials responsible for implementing the response plans.     

Patterns of PCBs and PCDD/PCDFs in chicken and pork fat following a Belgian food contamination incident

A food contamination incident involving polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) and PCDD/Fs occurred in 1999 in Belgium. On heavily affected farms, concentrations of PCBs in chicken or pork fat exceeded the Belgium tolerance limit of 200 ng/g lipid weight for the sum of seven marker PCBs. Analysis of contaminated samples showed that the patterns for PCB and PCDD/F congeners differed among feed, chicken fat and pork fat. Lower chlorinated PCBs and polychlorodibenzofurans (PCDFs) including those with high TEFs (PCBs 105, 118, 126 and 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF) were shown to either bioaccumulate more in chicken fat or to be eliminated more readily in pork. This leads to the possibility that consumption of chicken would result in a higher TEQ human body burden than that from the same consumption of pork. In addition, PCDF congeners with non-2,3,7,8-substitution (e.g., 1,2,4,7,8-PeCDF) were present in chicken fat but absent in pork fat. Since the residue pattern in this commercial episode changes less in the avian species, these results reinforce the value of birds rather than mammals as markers of the source of contamination with persistent organochlorine pollutants.     

EFFECT OF PRICE ON THE RESIDENTIAL DEMAND FOR WATER WITHIN AN AGENCY1

ABSTRACT: This paper develops a model that can be used to forecast the residential elasticity of demand for water within a district. Long-term water conservation programs and revenue and cost decisions hinge crucially on a determination of this elasticity. This study then pools cross-sectional (census) and time series data to generate elasticity forecasts for the Oakland urban area.     

ECOSYSTEM MODELING OF A FORESTED RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: A present concern in decision making processes for forest land use is the environmental effects of land use activities on water, air, and the land itself. Criteria for evaluating the magnitude and detriment of environmental impacts are not definite since it is often difficult to isolate a particular activity as the cause of a particular impact. Instead, interactions between various forest practices must be considered along with their integrated impacts. In order to provide an effective decision tool, the College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, is modeling the forest ecosystem of the Snohomish River Basin located in the Cascade Mountains of western Washington. The project consists of a general system model comprised of subsystem models dealing with product conversion processes, forest production processes, recreation supply processes, wildlife and fisheries supply processes, and the interactions of these processes with water and the atmosphere. The system model is interfaced with a computerized multiple player management game which enables land managers, manufacturing managers, and regulation agency personnel to make management decisions and respond to indications of lack of environmental control. Responses of the hydrologic system to various management decisions are simulated by the water subsystem model. The responses being considered include surface flow quantity and water quality. The model emphasizes the monitoring of non-point as well as point source impacts rather than predicting short-term hydrographs. The significance of impacts vary with land use patterns and the goals of the game player. Therefore, the model has flexible resolution and is able to predict hydrologic conditions for both large and small scale. The water subsystem model responds to management decisions by interpreting the effects of management options selected by game players for 40-acre cells within the Basin. The model then determines which streams are immediately affected, defines the watersheds contributing to these streams, and extracts from a resource data bank the information needed to define model parameters. Using these parameters and precipitation inputs, mean flow discharge on a montly and annual basis is calculated for the impactcd sub watersheds as well as 21 major watersheds of the Basin. Water quality responses predicted for these watersheds include suspended sediment concentration, temperature increases due to stream exposure, dissolved oxygen concentrations, the effects of fertilization on nitrogen content, biocide and herbicide effects, and residues from product conversion processes.     

Pastoralists' responses to variation of rangeland resources in time and space.

We explore the response of pastoralists to rangeland resource variation in time and space, focusing on regions where high variation makes it unlikely that an economically viable herd can be maintained on a single management unit. In such regions, the need to move stock to find forage in at least some years has led to the evolution of nomadism and transhumance, and reciprocal grazing agreements among the holders of common-property rangeland. The role of such informal institutions in buffering resource variation is well documented in some Asian and African rangelands, but in societies with formally established private-property regimes, where we focus, such institutions have received little attention. We examine agistment networks, which play an important role in buffering resource variation in modern-day Australia. Agistment is a commercial arrangement between pastoralists who have less forage than they believe they require and pastoralists who believe they have more. Agistment facilitates the movement of livestock via a network based largely on trust. We are concerned exclusively with the link between the characteristics of biophysical variation and human aspects of agistment networks, and we developed a model to test the hypothesis that such a link could exist. Our model builds on game theory literature, which explains cooperation between strangers based on the ability of players to learn whom they can trust. Our game is played on a highly stylized landscape that allows us to control and isolate the degree of spatial variation and spatial covariation. We found that agistment networks are more effective where spatial variation in resource availability is high, and generally more effective when spatial covariation is low. Policy design that seeks to work with existing social networks in rangelands has potential, but this potential varies depending on localized characteristics of the biophysical variability.     

Assessing the carbon balance of circumpolar Arctic tundra using remote sensing and process modeling.

This paper reviews the current status of using remote sensing and process-based modeling approaches to assess the contemporary and future circumpolar carbon balance of Arctic tundra, including the exchange of both carbon dioxide and methane with the atmosphere. Analyses based on remote sensing approaches that use a 20-year data record of satellite data indicate that tundra is greening in the Arctic, suggesting an increase in photosynthetic activity and net primary production. Modeling studies generally simulate a small net carbon sink for the distribution of Arctic tundra, a result that is within the uncertainty range of field-based estimates of net carbon exchange. Applications of process-based approaches for scenarios of future climate change generally indicate net carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra as enhanced vegetation production exceeds simulated increases in decomposition. However, methane emissions are likely to increase dramatically, in response to rising soil temperatures, over the next century. Key uncertainties in the response of Arctic ecosystems to climate change include uncertainties in future fire regimes and uncertainties relating to changes in the soil environment. These include the response of soil decomposition and respiration to warming and deepening of the soil active layer, uncertainties in precipitation and potential soil drying, and distribution of wetlands. While there are numerous uncertainties in the projections of process-based models, they generally indicate that Arctic tundra will be a small sink for carbon over the next century and that methane emissions will increase considerably, which implies that exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and Arctic tundra ecosystems is likely to contribute to climate warming.     

“Alternative” mating behavior in the swordtails Xiphophorus nigrensis and Xiphophorus pygmaeus (Pisces: Poeciliidae)

Summary The swordtail Xiphophorus nigrensis exhibits three relatively discrete male body-size classes that derive from allelic variation at the Y-linked pituitary (P) locus. Previous studies have shown that larger males have greater relative reproductive success, and that females prefer large males. We describe the mating behavior utilized by males of each size class during individual encounters with females. Small males rely on chase behavior, similar to the alternative mating behavior classified as sneaker in small males of other species. Large males court and intermediate-sized males court or chase, depending on their body size. There is a strong correlation between P alleles for small size (s) and large size (L) with chasing and courting, respectively. The relationship between mating behavior of males of the genotype I is ambiguous. In the closely related species X. pygmaeus, males are of size similar to smaller X. nigrensis males. Paradoxically, these males do not show the courtship display that typifies larger male X. nigrensis and many other species of swordtails, but instead often employ chase behavior identical to the alternative mating behavior in small male X. nigrensis. We suggest that historical and genetic constraints, in addition to current selection forces, might be important factors in explaining the existence of alternative mating behavior in X. pygmaeus.     

Transport of cadmium and other metals in the blood of the bivalve mollusc Mercenaria mercenaria

The distribution of metals (Ba, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni and Zn) in the blood plasma and the circulating hemocytes was determined for a eulamellibranch bivalve, the quahog Mercenaria mercenaria (L.), collected from a relatively clean site at Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA. Whole blood volume was an exponential function of quahog length (Y=5.71×10^-5 X^3.0678; Y=ml of whole blood; X=mm length). Of this volume, 1.2±0.3% ( ) was attributable to blood cells. Total metal content (g metal, or g metal normalized per g of whole blood) was much higher in blood plasma than in hemocytes. In quahogs exposed in the laboratory to 100 ppb ¹⁰⁹Cd, 93.0% of the total accumulated blood Cd was in the plasma rather than in the circulating hemocytes (7.0%), irrespective of the length of exposure (1 h to 31 d). Less than 5% of the plasma Cd was either Cd²⁺, small inorganic Cd complexes or bound to organic molecules with a molecular weight smaller than 1 000. Cadmium was primarily bound to high molecular weight protein(s) (>60 000 daltons) within the plasma. This plasma protein-Cd complex has a low affinity constant (approximately 10⁴ M ^-1), indicating non-specific Cd binding, although the capacity for Cd-binding in the plasma is great (as high as 200 g Cd per ml of plasma). Blood plasma may be far more important in metal transport than has previously been realized.     

Preventing behavioural interactions with a male facilitates sex change in female bluebanded gobies, Lythrypnus dalli

Sex change in marine teleost fishes is commonly regulated by social factors. In species that exhibit protogynous sex change, such as the bluebanded goby Lythrypnus dalli, the most dominant female typically initiates sex change when a male is removed from the social group. Females can use visual, chemical or tactile cues to assess the presence or absence of a male. The primary goal of our study was to determine whether the olfactory and visual presence of a male versus its behavioural interactions with females were important for mediating sex change. We exposed females to three different treatments: absence of a male, presence of a male that could physically interact with her and presence of a male behind a barrier that allowed visual and olfactory interactions but prohibited physical interactions. Sex change occurred in the absence of a male but not in the presence of a male that could physically interact with the female. The presence of a male behind the barrier did not prevent sex change but affected the timing of sex change. Season appeared to affect the latency to initiate male typical courtship, with a delay at the end of the reproductive season only when the male was present behind the barrier. We discuss the seasonal results in terms of L. dalli life history and the potential benefits and costs of changing sex late in the season in the presence or absence of aggressive reinforcement by the male. Our results identify direct behavioural interactions as an important proximate mechanism in the social regulation of sex change in L. dalli.