Errors and uncertainties in a gridded carbon dioxide emissions inventory

Emission inventories (EIs) are the fundamental tool to monitor compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reduction commitments. Inventory accounting guidelines provide the best practices to help EI compilers across different countries and regions make comparable, national emission estimates regardless of differences in data availability. However, there are a variety of sources of error and uncertainty that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines can define. Spatially explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes and there are no specific guidelines to achieve spatial emission estimates. The errors and uncertainties associated with the spatial estimates are unique to the approaches employed and are often difficult to assess. This study compares the global, high-resolution (1 km), fossil fuel, carbon dioxide (CO₂), gridded EI Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO₂ (ODIAC) with the multi-resolution, spatially explicit bottom-up EI geoinformation technologies, spatio-temporal approaches, and full carbon account for improving the accuracy of GHG inventories (GESAPU) over the domain of Poland. By taking full advantage of the data granularity that bottom-up EI offers, this study characterized the potential biases in spatial disaggregation by emission sector (point and non-point emissions) across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy-relevant scales) and identified the root causes. While two EIs are in agreement in total and sectoral emissions (2.2% for the total emissions), the emission spatial patterns showed large differences (10~100% relative differences at 1 km) especially at the urban-rural transitioning areas (90–100%). We however found that the agreement of emissions over urban areas is surprisingly good compared with the estimates previously reported for US cities. This paper also discusses the use of spatially explicit EIs for climate mitigation applications beyond the common use in atmospheric modeling. We conclude with a discussion of current and future challenges of EIs in support of successful implementation of GHG emission monitoring and mitigation activity under the Paris Climate Agreement from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). We highlight the importance of capacity building for EI development and coordinated research efforts of EI, atmospheric observations, and modeling to overcome the challenges.

     

The impacts of warfare and armed conflict on land systems

ABSTRACT

Land-use decisions can change abruptly in response to shocks, and warfare and armed conflicts are among the most drastic and globally frequent shocks. Yet, our understanding of where armed conflict affects land systems, how land-use patterns are impacted, and how far-reaching and persistent these changes are, is partial. We used a spatially detailed dataset on armed conflict and a literature review to explore these questions. A number of key insights emerged from our study: (1) warfare and armed conflict affect land systems mainly in more densely populated areas, regardless of the dominating land use; (2) warfare and armed conflict can impact land systems in major ways, but these effects are diverse and not unidirectional; (3) warfare and armed conflict primarily affects land systems locally, but can forge telecouplings; and (4) although the impact of warfare and armed conflict is often immediate, it can instigate long-lasting land-use legacies.     

A unified approach for including non-extractable residues (NER) of chemicals and pesticides in the assessment of persistence

All chemicals form non-extractable residues (NER) to various extents in environmental media like soil, sediment, plants and animals. NER can be quantified in environmental fate studies using isotope-labeled (such as ¹⁴C or ¹³C) tracer compounds. Previous NER definitions have led to a mismatch of legislation and state of knowledge in research: the residues are assumed to be either irreversibly bound degradation products or at least parts of these residues can be released. In the latter assumption, soils and sediments are a long-term source of slowly released residues. We here present a conceptual experimental and modeling approach to characterize non-extractable residues and provide guidance how they should be considered in the persistence assessment of chemicals and pesticides. Three types of NER can be experimentally discriminated: sequestered and entrapped residues (type I), containing either the parent substance or xenobiotic transformation products or both and having the potential to be released, which has indeed been observed. Type II NER are residues that are covalently bound to organic matter in soils or sediments or to biological tissue in organisms and that are considered being strongly bound with very low remobilization rates like that of humic matter degradation rates. Type III NER comprises biogenic NER (bioNER) after degradation of the xenobiotic chemical and anabolic formation of natural biomolecules like amino acids and phospholipids, and other biomass compounds. We developed the microbial turnover to biomass (MTB) model to predict the formation of bioNER based on the structural properties of chemicals. Further, we proposed an extraction sequence to obtain a matrix containing only NER. Finally, we summarized experimental methods to distinguish the three NER types. Type I NER and type II NER should be considered as potentially remobilizable residues in persistence assessment but the probability of type II release is much lower than that of type I NER, i.e., type II NER in soil are “operationally spoken” irreversibly bound and can be released only in minute amounts and at very slow rates, if at all. The potential of remobilization can be evaluated by chemical, physical and biological methods. BioNER are of no environmental concern and, therefore, can be assessed as such in persistence assessment. The general concept presented is to consider the total amount of NER minus potential bioNER as the amount of xenoNER, type I?+?II. If a clear differentiation of type I and type II is possible, for the calculation of half-life type I NER are considered as not degraded parent substance or transformation product(s). On the contrary, type II NER may generally be considered as (at least temporarily) removed. Providing proof for type II NER is the most critical issue in NER assessment and requires additional research. If no characterization and additional information on NER are available, it is recommended to assess the total amount as potentially remobilizable. We propose our unified approach of NER characterization and evaluation to be implemented into the persistence and environmental hazard assessment strategies for REACH chemicals and biocides, human and veterinary pharmaceuticals, and pesticides, irrespective of the different regulatory frameworks.     

Essential fatty acid (docosahexaenoic acid, DHA) availability affects growth of larval herring in the field

Larval fish growth and survival depends not only on prey quantity, but also on prey quality. To investigate effects of prey fatty acid concentration on larval herring growth, we collected different prey organisms and larval herring (Clupea harengus L.) in the Kiel Canal during the spring season of 2009. Along with biotic background data, we analysed fatty acids both in prey organisms and in the larvae and used biochemically derived growth rates of the larvae as the response variable. Larval herring reached their highest RNA/DNA derived growth rates only at high docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) concentration. When the ratio of copepodids to lesser quality cirriped nauplii was low, larval growth and larval DHA concentration were both significantly negatively affected. This was true even as prey abundance was increasing. This finding indicates that even in mixed, natural feeding conditions, growth variations are associated with DHA availability in larval fish.     

Restoration planning to guide Aichi targets in a megadiverse country

Ecological restoration has become an important strategy to conserve biodiversity and ecosystems services. To restore 15% of degraded ecosystems as stipulated by the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi target 15, we developed a prioritization framework to identify potential priority sites for restoration in Mexico, a megadiverse country. We used the most current biological and environmental data on Mexico to assess areas of biological importance and restoration feasibility at national scale and engaged stakeholders and experts throughout the process. We integrated 8 criteria into 2 components (i.e., biological importance and restoration feasibility) in a spatial multicriteria analysis and generated 11 scenarios to test the effect of assigning different component weights. The priority restoration sites were distributed across all terrestrial ecosystems of Mexico; 64.1% were in degraded natural vegetation and 6% were in protected areas. Our results provide a spatial guide to where restoration could enhance the persistence of species of conservation concern and vulnerable ecosystems while maximizing the likelihood of restoration success. Such spatial prioritization is a first step in informing policy makers and restoration planners where to focus local and large‐scale restoration efforts, which should additionally incorporate social and monetary cost–benefit considerations.     

Specialization and interaction strength in a tropical plant-frugivore network differ among forest strata

The degree of interdependence and potential for shared coevolutionary history of frugivorous animals and fleshy-fruited plants are contentious topics. Recently, network analyses revealed that mutualistic relationships between fleshy-fruited plants and frugivores are mostly built upon generalized associations. However, little is known about the determinants of network structure, especially from tropical forests where plants' dependence on animal seed dispersal is particularly high. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of specialization and interaction strength in a plant-frugivore network from a Kenyan rain forest. We recorded fruit removal from 33 plant species in different forest strata (canopy, midstory, understory) and habitats (primary and secondary forest) with a standardized sampling design (3447 interactions in 924 observation hours). We classified the 88 frugivore species into guilds according to dietary specialization (14 obligate, 28 partial, 46 opportunistic frugivores) and forest dependence (50 forest species, 38 visitors). Overall, complementary specialization was similar to that in other plant-frugivore networks. However, the plant-frugivore interactions in the canopy stratum were less specialized than in the mid- and understory, whereas primary and secondary forest did not differ. Plant specialization on frugivores decreased with plant height, and obligate and partial frugivores were less specialized than opportunistic frugivores. The overall impact of a frugivore increased with the number of visits and the specialization on specific plants. Moreover, interaction strength of frugivores differed among forest strata. Obligate frugivores foraged in the canopy where fruit resources were abundant, whereas partial and opportunistic frugivores were more common on mid- and understory plants, respectively. We conclude that the vertical stratification of the frugivore community into obligate and opportunistic feeding guilds structures this plant-frugivore network. The canopy stratum comprises stronger links and generalized associations, whereas the lower strata are composed of weaker links and more specialized interactions. Our results suggest that seed-dispersal relationships of plants in lower forest strata are more prone to disruption than those of canopy trees.     

Variation along the shy–bold continuum in extremophile fishes (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Poecilia mexicana</Emphasis>, <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Poecilia sulphuraria</Emphasis>)

One potential trade-off that bold individuals face is between increased predation risks and gains in resources. Individuals experiencing high predation and hungry individuals (or individuals with low body condition) are predicted to show increased boldness. We examined one behavioral trait previously reported to be associated with boldness (the time individual fish needed to emerge from shelter) in various populations of mollies (Poecilia spp.). Our study system included several southern Mexican surface streams with high piscine predation and high food availability, sulfidic surface streams with high avian predation, in which the inhabiting fish show reduced body condition, and a sulfidic cave, where predation and body condition are low. Our comparison revealed very short times to emerge from the start box in populations from non-sulfidic streams. In sulfidic habitats (whether surface or cave), it took individual Poecilia mexicana considerably longer to emerge from the start box, and the same difference was also found in an independent comparison between P. mexicana and the closely related, highly sulfide-adapted Poecilia sulphuraria. Fish reared under common garden conditions (in the absence of predators and hydrogen sulfide) showed intermediate boldness scores to the extremes observed in the field. Our data thus indicate that (a) boldness is shaped by environmental conditions/experiential effects, but is not heritable, (b) predation affects boldness in the predicted direction, but (c) low body condition leads to reduced boldness. Extremophile Poecilia spp. spend most of their time surfacing to survive under sulfidic and hypoxic conditions, which exposes them to increased levels of predations, but the fish forage on the bottom. Hence, in this system, increased boldness does not increase foraging success. We argue that energy limitation favors reducing energetically costly behaviors, and exploring novel environments may be just one of them.     

Incorporation of plant carbon into the soil animal food web of an arable system

We used stable isotopes to examine the incorporation of plant carbon into the belowground food web of an agricultural system. Plots were established and planted with maize (Zea mays) in a rye field (Secale cereale) near G?ttingen (northern Germany) in May 1999. In October 1999, April 2000, and October 2000, meso- and macrofauna and maize and rye litter were collected in each plot and analyzed for 13C and 15N content. 15N signatures suggested that the soil animal species analyzed span three trophic levels with the trophic position of species varying little in time. The species investigated formed a continuum from primary to secondary decomposers to predators. On average, predator species differed from primary and secondary decomposers by 3.9 sigma15N suggesting that they fed on a mixed diet of both decomposer groups. The combined analysis of 13C and 15N signatures allowed us to identify links between prey and consumer species. In October 1999, shortly after maize residues had been incorporated into the plots, maize-born carbon was present in each of the animal species investigated, including top predators. The incorporation of maize carbon into the belowground food web increased during the following 12 months but the concentration of maize-born carbon never exceeded 50% in any of the species. Furthermore, the ranks of the incorporation of maize-born carbon of the species changed little. The results suggest that the belowground food web relies heavily on carbon originating from plant residues from before the recent two growing seasons. In most species the amount of maize-born carbon increased continuously; however, in some species it decreased during winter, suggesting that these species switched to a diet based more on C3 plants during winter, or predominantly metabolized carbon incorporated during the last growing season. The study documents that the combined analysis of 13C and 15N signatures in soil invertebrate species, after replacement of C3 by C4 plants, is a powerful tool to better understand the structure of the belowground food web and the flux of carbon through it.     

Using slides to test for changes in crown defoliation assessment methods part II: Application of the image analysis system CROCO

We tested whether the semi-automatic program CROCO can replace visual assessments of slides to detect changes in defoliation assessment methods. We randomly selected a series of slides of 24 Norway spruce trees with 220 field assessments made between 1986 and 1995. The slides had been randomly arranged and assessed by three experts without knowledge of the tree number or the year when the slide was taken. Defoliation scores were computed with CROCO. Each tree had thus three different defoliation scores, field assessments, photo assessments and CROCO scores.CROCO scores were less correlated with the field assessments (Spearmans rank correlation: 0.67) than were the slide assessments with the field assessments (0.79–0.83). However, CROCO was not biased against the field scores, while slide assessments systematically underestimated defoliation.In a multi-variate mixed effect model none of the variables tree overlap, tree visibility and light conditions was significant in explaining differences between slide assessors and CROCO scores. The same model applied for the differences from the field scores yielded significant effects for poor light conditions (CROCO and all assessors), for crown overlap (CROCO and one assessor) and for visibility (one assessor). We conclude, therefore, that CROCO can be used to detect past and future changes in assessment methods without bias if poor quality photographs are avoided.     

Distribution analysis of airborne nicotine concentrations in hospitality facilities

A number of publications report statistical summaries for environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) concentrations. Despite compelling evidence for the data not being normally distributed, these publications typically report the arithmetic mean and standard deviation of the data, thereby losing important information related to the distribution of values contained in the original data. We were interested in the frequency distributions of reported nicotine concentrations in hospitality environments and subjected available data to distribution analyses. The distribution of experimental indoor airborne nicotine concentration data taken from hospitality facilities worldwide was fit to lognormal, Weibull, exponential, Pearson (Type V), logistic, and loglogistic distribution models. Comparison of goodness of fit (GOF) parameters and indications from the literature verified the selection of a lognormal distribution as the overall best model. When individual data were not reported in the literature, statistical summaries of results were used to model sets of lognormally distributed data that are intended to mimic the original data distribution. Grouping the data into various categories led to 31 frequency distributions that were further interpreted. The median values in nonsmoking environments are about half of the median values in smoking sections. When different continents are compared, Asian, European, and North American median values in restaurants are about a factor of three below levels encountered in other hospitality facilities. On a comparison of nicotine concentrations in North American smoking sections and nonsmoking sections, median values are about one-third of the European levels. The results obtained may be used to address issues related to exposure to ETS in the hospitality sector.