Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages

Several integrated assessment studies have concluded that future learning about the uncertainties involved in climate change has a considerable effect on welfare but only a small effect on optimal short-term emissions. In other words, learning is important but anticipation of learning is not. We confirm this result in the integrated assessment model “model of investment and technological development” for learning about climate sensitivity and climate damages. If learning about an irreversible threshold is included, though, we show that anticipation can become crucial both in terms of necessary adjustments of pre-learning emissions and resulting welfare gains. We specify conditions on the time of learning and the threshold characteristic, for which this is the case. They can be summarized as a narrow “anticipation window.”     

Distribution patterns of plants explained by human movement behaviour

Distribution patterns of plants are affected by human activities such as creation, destruction or modification of habitats. However, another important question is to what extent humans shape plant distributions by acting as dispersal vectors. In order to answer this question we developed a simulation model for the spread of plant species between human settlements. This was done on the basis of extensive sociological and ecological data on a regional scale. With regard to the sociological data, human movement behaviour defined the amount of exchange between the settlements. Gardening types represented the potential habitat in our model. The ecological data was derived from a vegetation survey carried out in 2003, which was a repeat of a survey between 1974 and 1981 along the same transects. From these surveys, we studied the distributions of 13 species in 67 settlements. In our model, the earlier survey provided the data for the initial distribution. The simulated pattern was consequently compared with the distribution pattern in 2003. In the model, dispersal kernels based on patterns of human movement between settlements led to a better match with the distribution patterns than a null model simulating pure distance dependent dispersal for all species. This was statistically significant for seven of the thirteen species. A striking result was that alien species seem to benefit more from human dispersal than native species. We emphasize the importance of the sociological data on human movement behaviour in parameterizing our regional scale model. This study provides quantitative evidence on the impact of human movement behaviour on the distribution of plant species in suburban areas.     

Human impacts on fire occurrence: a case study of hundred years of forest fires in a dry alpine valley in Switzerland

Forest fire regimes are sensitive to alterations of climate, fuel load, and ignition sources. We investigated the impact of human activities and climate on fire occurrence in a dry continental valley of the Swiss Alps (Valais) by relating fire occurrence to population and road density, biomass removal by livestock grazing and wood harvest, temperature and precipitation in two distinct periods (1904–1955 and 1956–2006) using generalized additive modeling. This study provides evidence for the role played by humans and temperature in shaping fire occurrence. The existence of ignition sources promotes fire occurrence to a certain extent only; for example, high road density tends to be related to fewer fires. Changes in forest uses within the study region seem to be particularly important. Fire occurrence appears to have been negatively associated with livestock pasturing in the forest and wood harvesting, in particular during the period 1904–1955. This study illustrates consistently how fire occurrence has been influenced by land use and socioeconomic conditions. It also suggests that there is no straightforward linear relationship between human factors and fire occurrence.     

Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

Integrating energy efficiency performance in production management – gap analysis between industrial needs and scientific literature

For governments and for manufacturing companies, global warming, rising energy prices, and customers’ increasing ecological awareness have pushed energy efficient manufacturing to the top of the agenda. Governments and companies are both striving to identify the most effective measures to increase energy efficiency in manufacturing processes. Based on results of a recent EU-funded roadmapping project, this paper highlights the needs of industrial companies for integrating energy efficiency performance in production management. First, it analyses concepts and tools for measurement, control and improvement of energy efficiency in production management proposed in literature. Second, the paper outlines that ICT tools and standardization are important enablers for energy efficient manufacturing. Third, industrial needs in these areas are presented based on expert interviews. The industrial needs thus identified are contrasted with concepts proposed in literature to point out the implementation gaps between practice and theory. The paper demonstrates that there exists a gap between the solutions available and the actual implementation in industrial companies. It concludes by deriving requirements for energy management in production that future collaborative research projects should address.     

Underlying reasons of the controversy over adverse effects of Bt toxins on lady beetle and lacewing larvae

In their recent study, Hilbeck et al. (2012) report that Cry1Ab causes lethal effects on larvae of the ladybird beetle Adalia bipunctata when fed directly to the predator. Such toxic effects were not previously observed in a direct feeding study conducted by us (álvarez-Alfageme et al. 2011). Because Hilbeck et al. (2012) claim that our study design did not allow us to detect any adverse effects we provide arguments for the value and relevance of our study in this commentary. Furthermore we discuss two additional published studies that have not revealed any direct effects of Cry1Ab on larvae of A. bipunctata and are not mentioned by Hilbeck et al. (2012). One of the studies was conducted in our laboratory under more realistic exposure conditions (álvarez-Alfageme et al. 2011). Feeding A. bipunctata larvae with spider mites reared on Bt maize did not reveal any adverse effects on lethal and sublethal parameters of the predator. This was despite the fact that the larvae had ingested high amounts of biologically-active Cry1Ab protein. Thus, we do not see verified evidence that A. bipunctata larvae are sensitive to Cry1Ab at realistic worst-case exposure concentrations. This, together with the fact that A. bipunctata will be little exposed to Cry1Ab under field conditions, allows us to conclude that the risk of Bt maize to this predator is negligible. Support for this comes from the results of many Bt maize field studies that have not revealed evidence for direct Cry1Ab-effects on non-Lepidoptera species.     

Typical patterns of smallholder vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security in the Peruvian Altiplano

Smallholder livelihoods in the Peruvian Altiplano are frequently threatened by weather extremes, including droughts, frosts and heavy rainfall. Given the persistence of significant undernourishment despite regional development efforts, we propose a cluster approach to evaluate smallholders’ vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security. We applied this approach to 268 smallholder households using information from two existing regional assessments and from our own household survey. The cluster analysis revealed four vulnerability patterns that depict typical combinations of household attributes, including their harvest failure risk, agricultural resources, education level and non-agricultural income. We validated the identified vulnerability patterns by demonstrating the correlation between them and an independently reported damage: the purchase of food and fodder resulting from exposure to weather extremes. The vulnerability patterns were then ranked according to the different amounts of purchase. A second validation aspect accounted for independently reported mechanisms explaining smallholders’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Based on the similarities among the households, our study contributes to the understanding of vulnerability beyond individual cases. In particular, the validation strengthens the credibility and suitability of our findings for decision-making pertaining to the reduction of vulnerability.     

Impact of the use of waste on trace element concentrations in cement and concrete.

The results of model calculations carried out to identify and quantify the input pathways of trace elements into cement and concrete and to estimate the extent to which trace element concentrations in cement may change due to waste utilization are presented. As expected, primary raw materials represented the most important input pathway for trace elements into cement, but the contribution from wastes was not negligible. The use of waste led to a slight increase of the concentrations of cadmium, antimony and zinc in cement. For cobalt, lead and vanadium, this increase was less distinct and for all other trace elements considered, the effect of the use of wastes on trace element concentrations in cement could not be demonstrated clearly. The trace element content of concrete was governed by the aggregates for most elements considered. However, for arsenic, cadmium, lead and zinc, both cement and the additive coal fly ash contributed noticeably to the total trace element concentration in the concrete.     

Dynamics of skeleton formation in the Lake Baikal sponge Lubomirskia baicalensis. Part II. Molecular biological studies

In a preceding study it has been reported that the freshwater sponge Lubomirskia baicalensis, living in Lake Baikal (East Siberia), is composed of spicules forming a characteristic pattern which follows radiate accretive growth. Here we report that the spicules are synthesized by the enzyme silicatein, a protein which is related to cathepsin L. The cDNAs for silicatein and the related cathepsin L were isolated and used as probes to show that the mRNA levels of silicatein in the bases of the spicule skeleton of the animals are low, while the mRNA level of cathepsin L in this region exceeds that of the growing zone. This is the first comprehensive study on the importance of the axial filament/silicatein as an essential structural and functional component determining the growth and stability of demosponge spicules.Note: Sequences from Lubomirskia baicalensis have been deposited in the EMBL/GenBank; cDNAs for the putative silicatein (LBSILICA) are deposited under the accession no. AJ786771 and for cathepsin L (LBCATL) under the accession no. AJ786770.