On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change

The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.     

Learning from Tabasco’s floods by applying MORT

Natural disasters are increasing alarmingly worldwide in recent years. They have killed millions of people, and adversely affected the life of at least one billion people. Given this, natural disasters present a great challenge to society today concerning how they are to be mitigated so as to produce an acceptable risk is a question which has come to the fore in dramatic ways recently. In 2007, the state of Tabasco, Mexico, was flooded and it is believed that al least one million people were left homeless. The paper addresses the following question: what can be learnt from flood disasters? The paper presents some preliminary results of the analysis of the Tabasco’s flooding by applying the Management Oversight Risk Tree (MORT). The MORT technique may be regarded as a structured checklist in the form of a complex ‘fault-tree’ model that is intended to ensure that all aspects of an organization’s management are looked into when assessing the possible causes of an incident. One of the key conclusions of the present analysis is that the approach to decision making in relation ‘flood management’ at the time of the disaster has not been based explicitly on ‘flood risk assessment’. It is hoped that by conducting such analysis lessons can be learnt so that the impact of natural disasters such as the Tabasco’s flooding can be mitigated in the future.     

Potential moderating influence of career growth opportunities on careerist orientation and work attitudes: evidence of the protean career era in Singapore

The emerging transactional or protean employment contract appears to have precipitated the development of a careerist orientation on the part of employees. This study examined the generalizability of the construct in a collectivist culture and the potential moderating influence of career growth opportunities on the careerist orientation–work attitude relationships. The results tend to support the generalizability of careerist orientation across cultures and, importantly, showed an absence of a moderating influence for career growth opportunities, suggesting that organizations cannot effectively counter the negative effects of careerist orientation on work attitudes. Limitations of the study, directions for future research, and implication of the findings for organizational dependence on employees as a competitive resource are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accumulation of organochlorine insecticides in the blood of the general population of Nigeria

Gas Chromatographic determination of blood levels of organochlorine pesticides in people of Southern Nigeria is described. Among the compounds detected and quantified were the HCH‐isomers, DDT and its metabolites and dieldrin, the major pollutants being DDT, DDE and the HCH‐isomers. Delta‐HCH, HCB and Endrin were also detected in a few samples. Total DDT (DDT + DDE + DDD) ranged from 0.04–7.24 ppm, total HCH (alpha + beta + gamma) 0.08–5.64 ppm, and dieldrin 0.03–0.28 ppm.     

Assessment of the aquatic biodiversity of a threatened coastal lagoon at Bimini, Bahamas

Coastal biodiversity is threatened worldwide by both direct and indirect anthropogenic activities. To more effectively manage and protect coastal biodiversity, accurate assessments of genetic, species, and ecosystem level diversity are required. We present the results from an assessment of the aquatic species diversity of a small (3?km²), shallow, mangrove-fringed Bahamian lagoon (the North Sound) subject to ongoing anthropogenic development. The assessment was conducted through a collation of field observations and data in published literature. We found that eight angiosperm species, 30 macroalgal species, and 370 animal species (including 95 fishes, 69 arthropods, 56 birds, and 45 mollusks) were documented within the lagoon. At least 11 of these species are of conservation concern, such as the critically endangered smalltooth sawfish (Pristis pectinata) and hawksbill turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata). Comparisons of community similarity indicated that the North Sound has a relatively distinct fauna and flora, but available data suggest that the species found there are most similar to those found in nearby habitats in Cuba. The lagoon forms a key nursery habitat for many species, including lemon sharks (Negaprion brevirostris), Caribbean spiny lobsters (Panulirus argus), and queen conch (Strombas gigas). Recently, the lagoon was included as part of a new marine protected area (MPA), but much of the habitat has already experienced considerable anthropogenic disturbance and the MPA boundaries have yet to be established. We have therefore analyzed the lagoon biodiversity and expect the data presented here to serve as a baseline for future comparisons.     

Modelling hydraulic jump using the bubbly two-phase flow method

Hydraulic jumps have complex flow structures, characterised by strong turbulence and large air contents. It is difficult to numerically predict the flows. It is necessary to bolster the existing computer models to emphasise the gas phase in hydraulic jumps, and avoid the pitfall of treating the phenomenon as a single-phase water flow. This paper aims to improve predictions of hydraulic jumps as bubbly two-phase flow. We allow for airflow above the free surface and air mass entrained across it. We use the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations to describe fluid motion, the volume of fluid method to track the interface, and the k–ε model for turbulence closure. A shear layer is shown to form between the bottom jet flow and the upper recirculation flow. The key to success in predicting the jet flow lies in formulating appropriate bottom boundary conditions. The majority of entrained air bubbles are advected downstream through the shear layer. Predictions of the recirculation region’s length and air volume fraction within the layer are validated by available measurements. The predictions show a linear growth of the shear layer. There is strong turbulence at the impingement, and the bulk of the turbulence kinetic energy is advected to the recirculation region via the shear layer. The predicted bottom-shear-stress distribution, with a peak value upstream of the toe of the jump and a decaying trend downstream, is realistic. This paper reveals a significant transient bottom shear stress associated with temporal fluctuations of mainly flow velocity in the jump. The prediction method discussed is useful for modelling hydraulic jumps and advancing the understanding of the complex flow phenomenon.     

Modeling Monthly Fluctuations in Submersion Area of a Dammed River Reservoir: A Case Study1

Lu, Haorong, S. Samuel Li, and Jinsong Guo, 2012. Modeling Monthly Fluctuations in Submersion Area of a Dammed River Reservoir: A Case Study. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐13. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12003 Abstract: Fluctuations in water submersion of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China have not been explored in spite of their important implications for shoreline erosion and other undesirable consequences. This article aims to quantify the monthly fluctuations in response to changing hydraulic parameters and regional climatic factors. Flow velocity and water levels distributed along the 609‐km long dammed river reservoir are calculated with a one‐dimensional hydrodynamics model. Evaporation of water from the surface of the reservoir is determined using mass transfer‐based methods. Calculated flow velocities and water levels compare well with field data. We show that the water surface slope decreases with rising water level at the dam, and decreases to almost zero during the winter months of water storage when the downstream water level reaches the normal pool level. The submersion area varies between 830 and 1,070 km² over the year or over 20% of the reservoir zone will experience the annual cycle of dry land and partial or complete submersion. These fluctuations are of relevance to shoreline management and to the prevention and restoration of shoreline erosion. Evaporation is estimated to fluctuate between 1,240 and 26,110 tons of water per month per kilometer length of reservoir channel; this can possibly affect the hydrological budget of the reservoir region. The simple methodologies discussed in this article can easily be applied to other dammed river reservoirs for submersion estimates.     

Predicting Fish Growth Potential and Identifying Water Quality Constraints: A Spatially-Explicit Bioenergetics Approach

Anthropogenic impairment of water bodies represents a global environmental concern, yet few attempts have successfully linked fish performance to thermal habitat suitability and fewer have distinguished co-varying water quality constraints. We interfaced fish bioenergetics, field measurements, and Thermal Remote Imaging to generate a spatially-explicit, high-resolution surface of fish growth potential, and next employed a structured hypothesis to detect relationships among measures of fish performance and co-varying water quality constraints. Our thermal surface of fish performance captured the amount and spatial-temporal arrangement of thermally-suitable habitat for three focal species in an extremely heterogeneous reservoir, but interpretation of this pattern was initially confounded by seasonal covariation of water residence time and water quality. Subsequent path analysis revealed that in terms of seasonal patterns in growth potential, catfish and walleye responded to temperature, positively and negatively, respectively; crappie and walleye responded to eutrophy (negatively). At the high eutrophy levels observed in this system, some desired fishes appear to suffer from excessive cultural eutrophication within the context of elevated temperatures whereas others appear to be largely unaffected or even enhanced. Our overall findings do not lead to the conclusion that this system is degraded by pollution; however, they do highlight the need to use a sensitive focal species in the process of determining allowable nutrient loading and as integrators of habitat suitability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We provide an integrated approach useful for quantifying fish growth potential and identifying water quality constraints on fish performance at spatial scales appropriate for whole-system management.     

Mangrove vulnerability modelling in parts of Western Niger Delta, Nigeria using satellite images, GIS techniques and Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA)

Mangroves are known for their global environmental and socioeconomic value. Despite their importance, mangrove like other ecosystems is now being threatened by natural and human-induced processes that damage them at alarming rates, thereby diminishing the limited number of existing mangrove vegetation. The development of a spatial vulnerability assessment model that takes into consideration environmental and socioeconomic criteria, in spatial and non-spatial formats has been attempted in this study. According to the model, 11 different input parameters are required in modelling mangrove vulnerability. These parameters and their effects on mangrove vulnerability were selected and weighted by experts in the related fields. Criteria identification and selection were mainly based on effects of environmental and socioeconomic changes associated with mangrove survival. The results obtained revealed the dominance of socioeconomic criteria such as population pressure and deforestation, with high vulnerability index of 0.75. The environmental criteria was broadly dispersed in the study area and represents vulnerability indices ranging from 0.00?C0.75. This category reflects the greater influence of pollutant input from oil wells and pipelines and minimal contribution from climatic factors. This project has integrated spatial management framework for mangrove vulnerability assessment that utilises information technology in conjunction with expert knowledge and multi-criteria analysis to aid planners and policy/ decision makers in the protection of this very fragile ecosystem.