STOCHASTIC WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS USING RELIABILITY METHOD1

ABSTRACT: This study developed a QUAL2E‐Reliability Analysis (QUAL2E‐RA) model for the stochastic water quality analysis of the downstream reach of the main Han River in Korea. The proposed model is based on the QUAL2E model and incorporates the Advanced First‐Order Second‐Moment (AFOSM) and Mean‐Value First‐Order Second‐Moment (MFOSM) methods. After the hydraulic characteristics from standard step method are identified, the optimal reaction coefficients are then estimated using the Broyden‐Fletcher‐Goldfarb‐Shanno (BFGS) method. Considering variations in river discharges, pollutant loads from tributaries, and reaction coefficients, the violation probabilities of existing water quality standards at several locations in the river were computed from the AFOSM and MFOSM methods, and the results were compared with those from the Monte Carlo method. The statistics of the three uncertainty analysis methods show that the outputs from the AFOSM and MFOSM methods are similar to those from the Monte Carlo method. From a practical model selection perspective, the MFOSM method is more attractive in terms of its computational simplicity and execution time.     

环境补偿制度——解决环境问题的经济手段之一

为了保护环境，使环境资源可持续利用，应该建立环境补偿制度。环境补偿制度是解决环境问题的有效手段之一。本文从环境补偿的概念出发，对环境补偿制度的理论基础，建立目的、征收原则及对象等内容进行了探讨。     

环境补偿制度——解决环境问题的经济手段之一

为了保护环境，使环境资源可持续利用，应该建立环境补偿制度。环境补偿制度是解决环境问题的有效手段之一。从环境补偿的概念出发，对环境补偿制度的理论基础进行了探讨，为我国建立环境补偿制度提供依据。     

北疆250年地表水资源变化特征及未来趋势预测

本文从北疆年轮场重建了北疆２５０年的地表水资源，探讨气候－地表水资源－年轮之间的关系，分析地表水资源的长期变化特征，预测其变化趋势，为北疆地表水资源的研究与利用提供了新的参考依据。     

Heavy metal removal by activated sludge: influence of Nocardia amarae.

The goal of this research was to examine the metal binding capacity of Nocardia amarae cells and to assess the influence of Nocardia cells on the overall metal binding capacity of activated sludge. Metal sorption capacities of the pure Nocardia cells and activated sludge biomass containing various levels of added Nocardia pure cultures were determined by a series of batch experiments. Batch sorption isotherms for nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), and cadmium (Cd) showed that the pure culture of N. amarae exhibited significantly higher metal sorption capacity than the activated sludge biomass obtained from Wilmington Wastewater Treatment Plant (Wilmington, DE). Surface area of biomass estimated by a dye technique showed that pure N. amarae cells growing at stationary phase have substantially more specific surface area than that of activated sludge from Wilmington Treatment Plant. A two-fold difference in specific surface area indicated that the higher metal sorption capacity of Nocardia cells may be due to the higher specific surface area. The metal sorption capacity of activated sludge increased proportionally with the amount of Nocardia cells present in the mixed liquor. This increase was attributed to the greater specific surface area of the mixed liquor samples containing greater amounts of Nocardia cells.     

铬对水栖寡毛类赫德莱顠体虫（Aeolosomaheadleyi）的毒性试验

赫德莱顠体虫（Ａｅｏｌｏｓｏｍａｈｅａｄｌｅｙｉ）为一种小型木栖寡毛类，行无性繁殖，室内培养容易。铬对其急性毒性试验结果为：２４ｈＬＣ＿（５０）为３．５５（３．１６─３．９０）ｍｇ／Ｌ，４８ｈＬＣ＿（５０）为１．８８（１．７７─２．０１）ｍｇ／Ｌ。低浓度慢性试验结果为：无效应浓度（ＮＯＥＣ）为１０１μｇ／Ｌ最大可接受浓度（ＭＡＥＣ）为１０１─１０２μｇ／Ｌ慢性暴露１０ｄ后种群可恢复的最高浓度为２１０ｕｇ／Ｌ．对此种寡毛类作为毒性试验生物的可能性作了简短的讨论。     

Are there higher pedestrian fatalities in larger cities?: A scaling analysis of 115 to 161 largest cities in the United States

Objective: In 2012, 4,743 pedestrians were killed in the United States, representing 14% of total traffic fatalities. The number of pedestrians injured was higher at 76,000. Therefore, 36 out of 52 of the largest cities in the United States have adopted a citywide target of reducing pedestrian fatalities. The number of cities adopting the reduction goal during 2011 and 2012 increased rapidly with 8 more cities. We examined the scaling relationship of pedestrian fatality counts as a function of the population size of 115 to 161 large U.S. cities during the period of 1994 to 2011. We also examined the scaling relationship of nonpedestrian and total traffic fatality counts as a function of the population size.

Methods: For the data source of fatality measures we used Traffic Safety Facts Fatality Analysis Reporting System/General Estimates System annual reports published each year from 1994 to 2011 by the NHTSA. Using the data source we conducted both annual cross-sectional and panel data bivariate and multivariate regression models. In the construction of the estimated functional relationship between traffic fatality measures and various factors, we used the simple power function for urban scaling used by Bettencourt et al. (2007 Bettencourt LMA, Lobo J, Helbing D, Kühnert C, West GB. Growth, innovation, scaling and the pace of life in cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2007;104:7301–7306.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2010 Bettencourt LMA, Lobo J, Strumsky D, West GB. Urban scaling and its deviations: revealing the structure of wealth, innovation and crime across cities. PLoS ONE. 2010;5:e13541.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the refined STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model used in Dietz and Rosa (1994 Dietz T, Rosa EA. Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Human Ecology Review. 1994;1:277–300. [Google Scholar], 1997 Dietz T, Rosa EA. Effects of population and affluence on CO₂ emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 1997;94:175–179.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and York et al. (2003 York R, Rosa EA, Dietz T. STIRPAT, IPAT and IMPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecol Econ. 2003;46:351–365.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).

Results: We found that the scaling relationship display diseconomies of scale or sublinear for pedestrian fatalities. However, the relationship displays a superlinear relationship in case of nonpedestrian fatalities. The scaling relationship for total traffic fatality counts display a nearly linear pattern. When the relationship was examined by the 4 subgroups of cities with different population sizes, the most pronounced sublinear scaling relationships for all 3 types of fatality counts was discovered for the subgroup of megacities with a population of more than 1 million.

Conclusions: The scaling patterns of traffic fatalities of subgroups of cities depend on population sizes of the cities in subgroups. In particular, 9 megacities with populations of more than 1 million are significantly different from the remaining cities and should be viewed as a totally separate group. Thus, analysis of the patterns of traffic fatalities needs to be conducted within the group of megacities separately from the other cities with smaller population sizes for devising prevention policies to reduce traffic fatalities in both megacities and smaller cities.     

Carbonaceous resin capsule for vapor-phase monitoring of volatile hydrocarbons in soil: partitioning and kinetic model verification

The resin capsule system (RCS) was tested as a means of providing data on the presence and forms of volatile hydrocarbons. Results indicated that resin capsules provided data showing sensitivity to soil variables (texture and moisture content) and time. The objectives of this paper are to evaluate the RCS methodology and to determine whether carbonaceous resin capsules provide results that can be described by fundamental chemical partitioning and kinetic principles. Findings revealed a significant relationship between quantities of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene adsorbed on the capsule and quantities partitioned into the vapor phase. Kinetic evaluation indicated that the vapor adsorption by the resin capsule is regulated by diffusion processes. No verification of rate-limiting processes was possible due to limitations imposed by the experimental design, but it appears that during early stages, adsorption rate was limited by vapor diffusion through the soil. The resin capsule data also reflected differences that would be expected due to properties of the organic liquids present. These results provide further evidence that the RCS could be developed to suggest direct in situ monitoring to reveal quantities and nature of organic substances in soils.     

不同粒径矿化垃圾对大麦生长发育和斑马鱼胚胎毒性效应研究

将太原东山新沟垃圾填埋场矿化垃圾筛分为900~300μm、300~150μm、150~105μm、105~90μm和90~0μm共5个不同粒径范围,制备浸出液。在分析不同粒径矿化垃圾浸出液的理化指标基础上,研究了矿化垃圾浸出液对大麦和斑马鱼胚胎生长发育的影响。结果显示,矿化垃圾浸出液p H值随粒径的减小而减小,电导率、CODCr、全盐量和总氮则随粒径的减小而增大。矿化垃圾浸出液对大麦的萌发、根长和芽长均表现出抑制作用,且抑制作用随粒径的减小而显著增加,90~0μm抑制作用最强,具体表现为染毒1 d、2 d和3 d后,大麦种子处理组萌发率为对照组的39.74%、56.38%和59.81%;染毒3 d、5 d和7 d后,根长分别为对照组的57.08%、48.33%和41.66%;芽长分别为对照组的66.60%、64.79%和61.65%。斑马鱼胚胎暴露于不同粒径的矿化垃圾浸出液中,胚胎生长发育的毒害作用与粒径大小呈现明显负相关关系,即在最小粒径90~0μm处理后,卵凝结、血循环异常、孵化率、心包水肿及脊柱畸形影响作用达到最大,这5个指标值分别为40.28%、50.00%、51.39%、31.94%和29.17%。以上研究表明,矿化垃圾浸出液对大麦和斑马鱼胚胎生长发育的毒性效应与矿化垃圾粒径分布显著相关,小粒径矿化垃圾(90~0μm)的生态毒性效应最大。