Estimating the critical phosphorus loading of shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake: Sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty

There is a vast body of knowledge that eutrophication of lakes may cause algal blooms. Among lakes, shallow lakes are peculiar systems in that they typically can be in one of two contrasting (equilibrium) states that are self-stabilizing: a ‘clear’ state with submerged macrophytes or a ‘turbid’ state dominated by phytoplankton. Eutrophication may cause a switch from the clear to the turbid state, if the P loading exceeds a critical value. The ecological processes governing this switch are covered by the ecosystem model PCLake, a dynamic model of nutrient cycling and the biota in shallow lakes. Here we present an extensive analysis of the model, using a three-step procedure. (1) A sensitivity analysis revealed the key parameters for the model output. (2) These parameters were calibrated on the combined data on total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, macrophytes cover and Secchi depth in over 40 lakes. This was done by a Bayesian procedure, giving a weight to each parameter setting based on its likelihood. (3) These weights were used for an uncertainty analysis, applied to the switchpoints (critical phosphorus loading levels) calculated by the model. The model was most sensitive to changes in water depth, P and N loading, retention time and lake size as external input factors, and to zooplankton growth rate, settling rates and maximum growth rates of phytoplankton and macrophytes as process parameters. The results for the ‘best run’ showed an acceptable agreement between model and data and classified nearly all lakes to which the model was applied correctly as either ‘clear’ (macrophyte-dominated) or ‘turbid’ (phytoplankton-dominated). The critical loading levels for a standard lake showed about a factor two uncertainty due to the variation in the posterior parameter distribution. This study calculates in one coherent analysis uncertainties in critical phosphorus loading, a parameter that is of great importance to water quality managers.     

Sexual selection,male morphology,and the efficacy of courtship signalling in two wolf spiders (Araneae: Lycosidae)

Males of the brush-legged wolf spider, Schizocosa ocreata (Araneae: Lycosidae), possess a conspicuous male secondary sexual character: dark pigmentation and tufts of bristles on the tibiae of their forelegs. We tested several hypotheses relating to the role of this conspicuous trait in sexual selection. Triad mating experiments suggest that the tufts do not play an obvious role in the operation of sexual selection by either male competition or female choice, as there were no significant differences in the mating success of intact and experimentally shaved males. However, females mated more often with males that initiated courtship first, suggesting that capture of a female’s attention by male signalling may play a critical role. In behavioral experiments that paired a single male with a female in arenas that allowed both visual and vibratory signal transmission during courtship, female receptivity did not vary significantly with the presence or absence of tufts. However, experiments that isolated the visual component of communication (by eliminating vibratory communication) revealed a significant effect of the presence of tufts: females showed receptivity less often to males with tufts removed. Female response to visual signals was much greater in S. ocreata than in its sibling congener, Schizocosa rovneri, which lacks male tufts. We hypothesize that the tufts serve to increase the efficacy of visual displays of S. ocreata, as vibratory communication is constrained by the complex leaf litter habitat of some populations. Such environmental constraints may make visual signalling over distance a critical factor for effective courtship communication, which may in turn strongly influence male fitness. Received: 30 September 1994/Accepted after revision: 4 August 1995