The Role of Abatement Costs in GHG Permit Allocations: A Global Stabilization Scenario Analysis

Our objective is to propose permit allocation schemes that lead to a fair distribution of the net abatement cost among regions in a global greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization scenario. We use a detailed technology-based energy model, World-MARKAL, to determine efficient abatement decisions, and to calculate the regional gross abatement costs (before permit allocation and trading). The net abatement costs are then calculated and used for different permit allocation schemes.     

Optimal Expansion Strategy for a Sewer System under Uncertainty

Because of fast urban sprawl, land use competition, and the gap in available funds and needed funds, municipal decision makers and planners are looking for more cost-effective and sustainable ways to improve their sewer infrastructure systems. The dominant approaches have turned to planning the sanitary sewer systems within a regional context, while the decentralized and on-site/cluster wastewater systems have not overcome the application barriers. But regionalization policy confers uncertainties and risks upon cities while planning for future events. Following the philosophy of smart growth, this paper presents several optimal expansion schemes for a fast-growing city in the US/Mexico borderlands—the city of Pharr in Texas under uncertainty. The waste stream generated in Pharr is divided into three distinct sewer sheds within the city limit, including south region, central region, and north region. The options available include routing the wastewater to a neighboring municipality (i.e., McAllen) for treatment and reuse, expanding the existing wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in the south sewer shed, and constructing a new WWTP in the north sewer shed. Traditional deterministic least-cost optimization applied in the first stage can provide a cost-effective and technology-based decision without respect to associated uncertainties system wide. As the model is primarily driven by the fees charged for wastewater transfer, sensitivity analysis was emphasized by the inclusion of varying flat-rate fees for adjustable transfer schemes before contracting process that may support the assessment of fiscal benefits to all parties involved. Yet uncertainties might arise from wastewater generation, wastewater reuse, and cost increase in constructing and operating the new wastewater treatment plant simultaneously. When dealing with multiple sources of uncertainty, the grey mixed integer programming (GIP) model, formulated in the second stage, can further allow all sources of uncertainties to propagate throughout the optimization context, simultaneously leading to determine a wealth of optimal decisions within a reasonable range. Both models ran for three 5-year periods beginning in 2005 and ending in 2020. The dynamic outputs of this analysis reflect the systematic concerns about integrative uncertainties within this decision analysis, which enable decision makers and stakeholders to make all-inclusive decisions for sanitary sewer system expansion in an economically growing region.     

Modelling Tracer Dispersion from Landfills

Several wind tunnel experiments of tracer dispersion from reduced-scale landfill models are presented in this paper. Different experimental set-ups, hot-wire anemometry, particle image velocimetry and tracer concentration measurements were used for the characterisation of flow and dispersion phenomena nearby the models. The main aim of these experiments is to build an extensive experimental data set useful for model validation purposes. To demonstrate the potentiality of the experimental data set, a validation exercise on several mathematical models was performed by means of a statistical technique. The experiments highlighted an increase in pollutant ground level concentrations immediately downwind from the landfill because of induced turbulence and mean flow deflection. This phenomenon turns out to be predominant for the dispersion process. Tests with a different set-up showed an important dependence of the dispersion phenomena from the landfill height and highlighted how complex orographic conditions downwind of the landfill do not affect significantly the dispersion behaviour. Validation exercises were useful for model calibration, improving code reliability, as well as evaluating performances. The Van Ulden model proved to give the most encouraging results.     

A Model for Landscape Planning Under Complex Spatial Conditions

We present a new mathematical programming framework that is adaptable to a variety of spatially explicit landscape problems in environmental investment, conservation, and land-use planning, transport planning, and agriculture. As part of capturing spatial interdependencies, the framework considers decision variables at two levels, finely spaced grid cells and landholdings. We applied the framework to an environmental investment problem using objective functions representing biodiversity and carbon sequestration. We also tested the model to optimize the path of a road through part of the landscape. Using the Nambucca case study in eastern Australia, we applied a hybrid greedy randomised adaptive search procedure (GRASP) to find solutions to the model.     

Extension of the EUROS Integrated Air Quality Model to Fine Particulate Matter by Coupling to CACM/MADRID 2

The European Operational Smog (EUROS) integrated air quality modelling system has been extended to model fine particulate matter (PM). From an extended literature study, the Caltech Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionisation and Dissolution were selected and recently coupled to EUROS. Currently, modelling of mass and chemical composition of aerosols in two size fractions (PM_2.5 and PM_10–2.5) is possible. The chemical composition is expressed in terms of seven components: ammonium, nitrate, sulphate, elementary carbon, primary inorganic compounds, primary organic compounds and secondary organic compounds. Calculated PM₁₀ concentrations and chemical composition are presented for two summer months of the year 2003 (1 July to 31 August).     

Development and Parameterization of a Rain- and Fire-driven Model for Exploring Elephant Effects in African Savannas

We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree–grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation.     

Effect of diel period and season on seining effort required to detect changes in Lake Erie beach fish assemblages

Using beach seining data from Lake Erie beaches, we examined the effect of diel period and season on two common study objectives considered sensitive to sampling effort: (1) has fish assemblage composition changed between two sampling time periods?, and (2) how many samples are necessary to provide a representative sample of the fish assemblage? Across a range of effect sizes and power levels, sample sizes were estimated for species richness, total fish abundance, round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) abundance and emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides) abundance. For most sampling periods and effect sizes, several hundred to several thousand seine hauls were estimated to be required for detecting large-scale (e.g. basin-wide) changes in round goby and emerald shiner abundance. Depending on the indicator of interest, night seining (either spring or fall) was interpreted as the most efficient approach. For both seasons, sampling effort beyond 40 to 50 night seine hauls results in few additional species being detected. Both species accumulation curves and estimated sample sizes indicate that less effort is required to detect species richness changes than fish abundance. For most effect sizes and power levels, estimates of the number of seine hauls required to detect changes in fish abundance are unrealistically large for most monitoring programs. More practical monitoring strategies could be achieved by adopting alternative indicators (e.g. guilds), a more liberal significance level (p=0.1), a paired-site sampling design, or including reference sites.     

Uptake and loss of dissolved 109Cd and 75Se in estuarine macroinvertebrates

Semaphore crabs (Heloecius cordiformis), soldier crabs (Mictyris platycheles), ghost shrimps (Trypaea australiensis), pygmy mussels (Xenostrobus securis), and polychaetes (Eunice sp.), key benthic prey items of predatory fish commonly found in estuaries throughout southeastern Australia, were exposed to dissolved (109)Cd and (75)Se for 385 h at 30 k Bq/l (uptake phase), followed by exposure to radionuclide-free water for 189 h (loss phase). The whole body uptake rates of (75)Se by pygmy mussels, semaphore crabs and soldier crabs were 1.9, 2.4 and 4.1 times higher than (109)Cd, respectively. There were no significant (P>0.05) differences between the uptake rates of (75)Se and (109)Cd for ghost shrimps and polychaetes. The uptake rates of (109)Cd and (75)Se were highest in pygmy mussels; about six times higher than in soldier crabs for (109)Cd and in polychaetes for (75)Se - the organisms with the lowest uptake rates. The loss rates of (109)Cd and (75)Se were highest in semaphore crabs; about four times higher than in polychaetes for (109)Cd and nine times higher than in ghost shrimps for (75)Se - the organisms with the lowest loss rates. The loss of (109)Cd and (75)Se in all organisms was best described by a two (i.e. short and a longer-lived) compartment model. In the short-lived, or rapidly exchanging, compartment, the biological half-lives of (75)Se (16-39 h) were about three times greater than those of (109)Cd (5-12h). In contrast, the biological half-lives of (109)Cd in the longer-lived, or slowly exchanging compartment(s), were typically greater (1370-5950 h) than those of (75)Se (161-1500 h). Semaphore crabs had the shortest biological half-lives of both radionuclides in the long-lived compartment, whereas polychaetes had the greatest biological half-life for (109)Cd (5950 h), and ghost shrimps had the greatest biological half-life for (75)Se (1500 h). This study provides the first reported data for the biological half-lives of Se in estuarine decapod crustaceans. Moreover, it emphasises the importance of determining metal(loid) accumulation and loss kinetics in keystone prey items, which consequently influences their trophic transfer potential to higher-order predators.