Modelling plant species richness using functional groups

Conservation biologists increasingly rely on spatial predictive models of biodiversity to support decision-making. Therefore, highly accurate and ecologically meaningful models are required at relatively broad spatial scales. While statistical techniques have been optimized to improve model accuracy, less focus has been given to the question: How does the autecology of a single species affect model quality? We compare a direct modelling approach versus a cumulative modelling approach for predicting plant species richness, where the latter gives more weight to the ecology of functional species groups. In the direct modelling approach, species richness is predicted by a single model calibrated for all species. In the cumulative modelling approach, the species were partitioned into functional groups, with each group calibrated separately and species richness of each group was cumulated to predict total species richness. We hypothesized that model accuracy depends on the ecology of individual species and that the cumulative modelling approach would predict species richness more accurately. The predictors explained plant species richness by ca. 25%. However, depending on the functional group the deviance explained varied from 3 to 67%. While both modelling approaches performed equally well, the models of the different functional groups highly varied in their quality and their spatial richness pattern. This variability helps to improve our understanding on how plant functional groups respond to ecological gradients.     

Modelling with uncertainty: Introducing a probabilistic framework to predict animal population dynamics

Predictive population models designed to assist managers and policy makers require an explicit treatment of inherent uncertainty and variability. These are particular concerns when modelling non-native and reintroduced species, when data have been collected within one geographical or ecological context but predictions are required for another, or when extending models to predict the consequences of environmental change (e.g., climate or land-use). We present an aspatial, probabilistic framework of hierarchical process models for predicting population growth even when data are sparse or of poor quality. Insight into the factors affecting population dynamics in real landscapes can be provided and Kullback–Leibler distances are used to compare the relative output of models. This flexible yet robust framework gives easily interpretable results, allowing managers as well as modellers to invalidate anomalous models and apply others to real-life scenarios.We illustrate the framework’s power with a meta-analysis of European wild boar (Sus scrofa) data. We test hypotheses about the effect of geographic region, hunting and mast years on wild boar population growth, to build models of wild boar dynamics for the UK. The framework quantifies the importance of hunting pressure as a driver of population growth, and confirms that reproductive success is greatly decreased in poor mast years, suggesting that the key to predicting wild boar dynamics is to ascertain local hunting pressure and to better understand changing food availability. Geography had no significant effect, indicating that it is not a good proxy for modelling the impact of change in climate or land-use on wild boar populations at the European scale. We use the framework to predict population abundance 9 years after an isolated population of wild boar established in the UK; in a comparison with the only field data and two independent modelling exercises, our framework provides the most robust and informative results.     

利用玉米浸泡液产电的微生物燃料电池研究

以玉米淀粉生产过程中的浸泡液（玉米浸泡液）作为接种液和基质,利用“三合一”膜电极的单室空气阴极微生物燃料电池进行试验,采用在线监测电压和废水分析方法对产电功率和化学需氧量（COD）、氨氮进行测定,探讨高COD、高氨氮有机废水产电及废水处理的可行性.结果表明,经过94 d（1个周期）的连续运行（固定外电阻为1 000 Ω）,17 d时输出电压达到最大（525.0 mV）,稳定期最大输出功率可达169.6 mW/m²,此时电池相应的电流密度为440.2 mA/m²,内阻约为350 Ω,开路电压619.5 mV;但燃料电池电子利用效率较低（库仑效率为1.6%）;1个周期结束时浸泡液的COD去除率达到51.6%,氨氮去除率25.8%.本试验利用玉米浸泡液成功获得电能,同时对浸泡液有效地进行了处理,为其资源化利用提供新途径.     

Determination of sorbent point zero charge: usefulness in sorption studies

Potentiometric mass titration (PMT) technique has been adapted to determine the pH _pzc of four vegetable wastes: grape stalks, cork, yohimbe bark and olive stones wastes used for Cu(II) removal. The pH at the point zero charge (pH _pzc), determined by PMT, are compared with that obtained by two classical techniques: mass titration (MT) and immersion technique (IT). PMT has been found to be an easy and appropriate technique to determine pH _pzc of the studied materials. From the results, the knowledge of sorbents pH _pzc provides information about the possible attraction and repulsion between sorbent and sorbate but in any case enables to ensure that electrostatic force is one of the mechanisms that takes place in metal sorption.     

Rainfall trends in twentieth century over Kerala,India

Attempts were made to study temporal variation in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall over Kerala, India, during the period from 1871 to 2005. Longterm changes in rainfall determined by Man-Kendall rank statistics and linear trend. The analysis revealed significant decrease in southwest monsoon rainfall while increase in post-monsoon season over the State of Kerala which is popularly known as the “Gateway of summer monsoon”. Rainfall during winter and summer seasons showed insignificant increasing trend. Rainfall during June and July showed significant decreasing trend while increasing trend in January, February and April. Hydel power generation and water availability during summer months are the concern in the State due to rainfall decline in June and July, which are the rainiest months. At the same time, majority of plantation crops are likely to benefit due to increase in rainfall during the post-monsoon season if they are stable and prolonged.     

Quantitative chemical composition and characteristics of aerosols over western India: One-year record of temporal variability

One-year quantitative chemical data set consisting of water-soluble constituents (NH₄⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl^?, NO₃^?, SO₄^2? and HCO₃^?), crustal and trace elements (Al, Fe, Ca, Mg, K, Mn, Zn, Pb) and carbonaceous species (OC, EC) in ambient aerosols, collected over an urban site located in a high-dust semi-arid region of western India, reveals excellent linear relationship (r² = 0.92; slope = 0.96 ± 0.05) between gravimetrically assessed TSP (total suspended particulates) and chemically analyzed aerosol mass. The TSP abundance ranging from 60 to 250 μg m^?3, over a period of 12 months (January–December), is dominated by mineral dust (～70%); whereas contribution from sea-salts, anthropogenic and carbonaceous species exhibits significant temporal variability depending upon the wind regimes. The mineral dust is enriched in Ca, Mg and Fe with respect to upper continental crust (UCC); whereas Zn and Pb exhibit a characteristic anthropogenic source and high enrichment factors. The carbonaceous species show significant seasonality; with dominance of OC (range: 4.6–28 μg m^?3; average: 12.8 μg m^?3; SD: 6.8) and minor contribution from EC (range: 0.3–4.4 μg m^?3; average: 2.4 μg m^?3; SD: 1.4). The observed concentrations are significantly lower than those reported for the metro cities in South Asia but the OC/EC ratios (range: 4.3–35; average: 8.3; SD: 5.7) are significantly higher than the characteristic ratio (～2–4) reported for the urban atmosphere. Such quantitative chemical characterization of aerosols is essential in assessing their role in atmospheric chemistry and climate change. This study could also be useful in understanding the physical and optical aerosol properties documented from the same site and thus, in validating regional climate models.     

我国县级地区生活垃圾焚烧设施环境社会风险分析及应对策略研究——基于31省份设施负荷率与网络舆情的分析

在政策支持和实际需求的驱动下,可能会导致县级地区垃圾焚烧项目迅速增多,且带来潜在的环境监管压力和环境社会风险,需要给予持续的特别关注,并对地方做好环境监管和风险管控的指导。本文基于全国精细化的生活垃圾焚烧处理设施、生活垃圾产生量、网络舆情等数据,通过构建泰森多边形等空间分析方法进行了焚烧处理设施的服务范围识别及负荷率计算,通过自然语言处理技术进行了关于生活垃圾焚烧处理设施的情感分析。在此基础上,基于焚烧处理设施的负荷率和负面舆情比例,对31个省份环境社会风险进行定量的评估分析并提出对策建议,一是平衡解决“缺口大”和“吃不饱”问题,合理规划布局县级地区生活垃圾焚烧处理设施;二是聚焦负面舆情高发领域、区域,积极防范县级地区生活垃圾焚烧处理设施环境社会风险。     

Two Hundred Years of Local Avian Extinctions in Eastern Amazonia

Local, regional, and global extinctions caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation have been widely reported for the tropics. The patterns and drivers of this loss of species are now increasingly well known in Amazonia, but there remains a significant gap in understanding of long‐term trends in species persistence and extinction in anthropogenic landscapes. Such a historical perspective is critical for understanding the status and trends of extant biodiversity as well as for identifying priorities to halt further losses. Using extensive historical data sets of specimen records and results of contemporary surveys, we searched for evidence of local extinctions of a terra firma rainforest avifauna over 200 years in a 2500 km² eastern Amazonian region around the Brazilian city of Belém. This region has the longest history of ornithological fieldwork in the entire Amazon basin and lies in the highly threatened Belém Centre of Endemism. We also compared our historically inferred extinction events with extensive data on species occurrences in a sample of catchments in a nearby municipality (Paragominas) that encompass a gradient of past forest loss. We found evidence for the possible extinction of 47 species (14% of the regional species pool) that were unreported from 1980 to 2013 (80% last recorded between 1900 and 1980). Seventeen species appear on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, and many of these are large‐bodied. The species lost from the region immediately around Belém are similar to those which are currently restricted to well‐forested catchments in Paragominas. Although we anticipate the future rediscovery or recolonization of some species inferred to be extinct by our calculations, we also expect that there are likely to be additional local extinctions, not reported here, given the ongoing loss and degradation of remaining areas of native vegetation across eastern Amazonia. Doscientos Años de Extinciones Locales de Aves en la Amazonia Oriental