自然灾害综合预报和年度会商

本文从系统论的观点和高度上分析了自然灾害综合预报的必要性和重要意义，同时结合陕西省近几年开展年度综合会商的实际和体会，就自然灾害综合预报和年度会商的具体内容、形式和方法等建设问题进行了讨论，最后提出了今后进一步改进会商质量、提高预报水平的建议。     

Acute toxicity of benzene derivatives to the tadpoles (Rana japonica) and QSAR analyses

Acute lethal toxicity (the negative logarithm of molar concentrations of 12 h acute median lethal, expressed as 12 h-log1/LC50) of 46 benzene derivatives to Rana japonica tadpoles was determined. 1-octanol/water partition coefficient (logKow)-dependent models were developed to study the toxicity of different categories chemicals. In an effort to model all chemicals, response surface analyses and stepwise multiple regression analyses were performed and successful models were obtained. A general and robust QSAR model was achieved with the combined application of variables reflecting hydrophobicity, electric property, and molecular size respectively (12h-log1/LC50 = 0.393logKow - 0.428Elumo + 0.0110Vol. + 1.362 n = 51, r2 = 0.834) using stepwise multiple regression analyses. Because of strong dissociation of carboxyl group greatly decreasing their observed toxicity, using logDow in instead of logKow the quality of the models is greatly improved. The conventional r2 and cross-validation r2(CV) were 0.914 and 0.785, respectively, indicating that QSAR was both internally consistent and highly predictive.     

砂对海水中溶解油的吸附及影响因素研究

以柴油污染的海水为对象，研究了砂对海水中溶解油的吸附作用及吸附的影响因素。结果表明，砂对溶解油的吸附符合Henry型吸附等温式，其吸附量随着砂粒粒径的减小、温度的降低和盐度的增加而增大。在影响吸附的3种因素中，粒径对吸附的影响最大。通过吸附热力学分析，推断砂对溶解油的吸附属于物理吸附。     

Statistical visualization for data exploration: a case study on Sydney Olympic Park

Due to the powerful graphic interface in modern computers, visualization techniques have become more and more popular for data exploration. As a preliminary investigation, visualization is a greatly useful tool to lead to further statistical analysis and modelling. It is likely that historical environmental data from a range of different studies may contain useful information that should be assessed for determining management actions. However, these historical data are collected from many different studies, which have different space and/or time scales making the visualization process complicated. In this paper we present several ways of visualizing historical data based on a study at Sydney Olympic Park. The tools include spatial coverage and variation for different spatial resolutions, temporal coverage and time series plots for different time scales, multi-panel scatterplots for a small number of variables and "one-to-all" scatterplots for a large number of variables.     

Distribution of rare earth elements in PM10 emitted from burning coals and soil-mixed coal briquettes

Emission from burning coals is one of the major sources of the airborne particles in China. We carried out a study on the rare earth elements (REEs) in the inhalable particulate matter (PM₁₀) emitted from burning coals and soil-coal honeycomb briquettes with different volatile contents and ash yields in a combustion-dilution system. Gravimetric analysis indicates that the equivalent mass concentration of the PM₁₀ emitted from burning the coals is higher than that emitted from burning the briquettes. The ICP-MS analysis indicates that the contents of total REEs in the coal-burning PM₁₀ are lower than those in the briquette-burning PM₁₀. In addition, the contents of the light rare earth elements (LREEs) are higher than those of the heavy rare earth elements (HREEs) in the PM₁₀ emitted from burning the coals and briquettes, demonstrating that the REEs in both the coal-burning and briquette-burning PM₁₀ are dominated by LREEs. The higher contents of total REEs and LREEs in the coal-burning PM₁₀ are associated with the higher ash yields and lower volatile contents in the raw coals. A comparative analysis indicates that the La/Sm ratios in the PM₁₀ emitted from burning the coals and briquettes, being lower than 2, are lower than those in the particles from gasoline-powered vehicle emission.     

纳滤膜截留特性与膜基本特征之间关系的研究

选择DF10、DF30、DF90 3种纳滤膜对无机盐(NaCl和CaCl_2)、微量有机物(药物及个人护理品)、富里酸溶液进行纳滤实验,考察具有不同物理化学特性的膜对不同种类溶质的截留能力差异.结果表明,膜孔大小和带电量共同决定了纳滤膜对无机物的截留率,而微量有机物和天然有机物的截留率主要由膜孔径决定.膜活性层厚度很大程度上影响了膜的透水系数;膜的透水系数与NaCl截留率呈现负相关;膜的截留分子量越小,其对有机物的截留率越高;脱盐(NaCl)能力不一定正相关于有机物截留率,也不正相关于CaCl_2截留率.研究发现,DF30具有低无机物截留、高有机物截留的特性,这与其截留分子量适中、膜表面电荷密度低、活性层厚度小等物化性质密切相关.     

《海洋的变化:来自大海的呼唤》

艾莉博士的大作《海洋的变化：来自大海的呼唤》是一本伟大的书,它揭示了人类与海洋的关系,对人类与海洋的命运进行了探讨.     

一种从有机废水中获取甲酸的方法

探讨了从环己醇/环己酮生产装置产生的酸性有机废水中获取甲酸的方法.在实验基础上,确定了共沸-分馏组合法回收甲酸的工艺过程、适宜挟带剂及工艺条件.采用共沸-分馏组合法处理该有机废水,可获取质量分数为80%以上的甲酸水溶液,甲酸回收率可达70%以上.同时,经本法处理后,该有机废水的COD由1.0×105～1.6×105 mg/L降至5× 102 mg/L以下,COD去除率达98%以上.     

易腐性有机垃圾的产生与处理技术途径比较

我国城市垃圾以易腐性有机垃圾为主.目前有关管理部门提出逐步减少进入填埋场的易腐性有机垃圾量,因此,必须寻求其他填埋替代技术消纳易腐性有机垃圾物流.本文对几种常规技术方案进行了比较.认为应该根据非餐饮业和餐饮业易腐性有机垃圾各自的产生源特点,采取不同的处理方案;但目前这些替代技术用于处理易腐垃圾时均存在各自的缺陷.本文据此提出了相应的技术完善要求和配套管理政策建议.     

混沌理论在事故分析及预测中的应用

在对江苏常州市某公司安全事故资料进行大量调查与统计的基础上,应用混沌理论分析了该公司安全事故的混沌特征,指出了事故对初始条件的敏感依赖性和事故的长期不可预测性。应用重构相空间理论对安全事故次数的时间序列进行了分析和预测。同时,还对安全事故统计资料进行了R/S分析,得出该时间序列以2 0 0 1年6月为界限,存在两个Hurst指数,H1=1.6 82 8和H2 =0 .2 936 ,表明在以3个月为时间统计尺度的条件下,事故发生次数在前一时间段整体表现为持久相关性,而在后一时间段表现为反持久相关性。预测与分析结果与实际情况符合较好,表明应用混沌理论进行事故分析与预测是可行的,反映了事故的发展趋势。