Accounting for large-scale factors in the study of understory vegetation using a conditional logistic model

Local-scale and large-scale factors can affect the presence of a species of understory vegetation in the forest. Local-scale factors may be the influence of surrounding trees, while climate and latitude are typically considered large-scale factors. A model for the presence of a species needs to take into account both scales. A conditional logistic model is proposed for those studies where only the local-scale factors are of interest and that avoids estimating the large-scale parameters. Conditioning is carried out by the number of quadrats in the plot where the vegetation is found. As the latter is a sufficient statistic for the large-scale factors, a model free from these parameters is obtained. Data gathered in the permanent sample plots of the 1985–1986 National Forest Inventory of Finland is used for illustration, where the local-scale factor of interest is the influence of the trees, quantified by an index based on the size and location of the trees. The model fitted to Vaccinium vitis-idaea showed a significant and positive influence of Scots pine on the presence of this species, while for Calamagrostis arundinacea, a decrease in the odds ratio was observed due to the influence of Norway spruce.     

Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. corn belt?

Agricultural management practices that enhance C sequestration, reduce greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide [N?O], methane [CH?], and carbon dioxide [CO?]), and promote productivity are needed to mitigate global warming without sacrificing food production. The objectives of the study were to compare productivity, greenhouse gas emission, and change in soil C over time and to assess whether global warming potential and global warming potential per unit biomass produced were reduced through combined mitigation strategies when implemented in the northern U.S. Corn Belt. The systems compared were (i) business as usual (BAU); (ii) maximum C sequestration (MAXC); and (iii) optimum greenhouse gas benefit (OGGB). Biomass production, greenhouse gas flux change in total and organic soil C, and global warming potential were compared among the three systems. Soil organic C accumulated only in the surface 0 to 5 cm. Three-year average emission of N?O and CH was similar among all management systems. When integrated from planting to planting, N?O emission was similar for MAXC and OGGB systems, although only MAXC was fertilized. Overall, the three systems had similar global warming potential based on 4-yr changes in soil organic C, but average rotation biomass was less in the OGGB systems. Global warming potential per dry crop yield was the least for the MAXC system and the most for OGGB system. This suggests management practices designed to reduce global warming potential can be achieved without a loss of productivity. For example, MAXC systems over time may provide sufficient soil C sequestration to offset associated greenhouse gas emission.     

Ecosystem services and urban heat riskscape moderation: water, green spaces, and social inequality in Phoenix, USA

Urban ecosystems are subjected to high temperatures--extreme heat events, chronically hot weather, or both-through interactions between local and global climate processes. Urban vegetation may provide a cooling ecosystem service, although many knowledge gaps exist in the biophysical and social dynamics of using this service to reduce climate extremes. To better understand patterns of urban vegetated cooling, the potential water requirements to supply these services, and differential access to these services between residential neighborhoods, we evaluated three decades (1970-2000) of land surface characteristics and residential segregation by income in the Phoenix, Arizona, USA metropolitan region. We developed an ecosystem service trade-offs approach to assess the urban heat riskscape, defined as the spatial variation in risk exposure and potential human vulnerability to extreme heat. In this region, vegetation provided nearly a 25 degrees C surface cooling compared to bare soil on low-humidity summer days; the magnitude of this service was strongly coupled to air temperature and vapor pressure deficits. To estimate the water loss associated with land-surface cooling, we applied a surface energy balance model. Our initial estimates suggest 2.7 mm/d of water may be used in supplying cooling ecosystem services in the Phoenix region on a summer day. The availability and corresponding resource use requirements of these ecosystem services had a strongly positive relationship with neighborhood income in the year 2000. However, economic stratification in access to services is a recent development: no vegetation-income relationship was observed in 1970, and a clear trend of increasing correlation was evident through 2000. To alleviate neighborhood inequality in risks from extreme heat through increased vegetation and evaporative cooling, large increases in regional water use would be required. Together, these results suggest the need for a systems evaluation of the benefits, costs, spatial structure, and temporal trajectory for the use of ecosystem services to moderate climate extremes. Increasing vegetation is one strategy for moderating regional climate changes in urban areas and simultaneously providing multiple ecosystem services. However, vegetation has economic, water, and social equity implications that vary dramatically across neighborhoods and need to be managed through informed environmental policies.     

Population Persistence in Florida Torreya: Comparing Modeled Projections of a Declining Coniferous Tree

Abstract: The Florida torreya (   Torreya taxifolia ) is a coniferous tree endemic to a 35-km stretch of bluffs and ravines along the east side of the Apalachicola River in northern Florida and southern Georgia. This formerly locally abundant tree has declined as a result of disease during the 1950s and is on the U.S. endangered species list. With no seed production in the wild, this species is headed toward extinction. We conducted a survey on roughly 200 trees from 1988 to 1996 and used these data to estimate the likelihood of population persistence during the next several decades. We compared a stage-class transition matrix model ( RAMAS) and an individual-based stochastic model ( TORSIM) of growth and mortality to project future populations. Given the current lack of seed production in the wild, all models predict extinction. The question of concern is the imminence of this predicted extinction. Differing predicted times to extinction would suggest different immediate management recommendations. Both models predicted an over 90% likelihood of persistence during the next 50 years. Predictions differed in that the transition matrix model was less optimistic than the individual-based model regarding persistence. Model sensitivity analysis showed that the results were robust to significant decreases in growth and sprouting probabilities. Submodels identified different persistence likelihoods in different populations. Nonetheless, unless management of the population can facilitate maturation and seed production, extinction of this species in the wild is inevitable.     

Predicting the safety performance of volunteers: Does motivation for volunteering influence driving behavior?

Volunteering has long been known for its positive effects on the individual and the community. However, no research to date has examined the safety of individuals when volunteering their services. The safety of individuals when driving a vehicle is particularly a concern in the nonprofit sector as volunteers is leaving organizations due to fear of public liability. As such, this paper aims to identify the internal motivational factors influencing the safety of volunteers when driving a vehicle (n = 73). Utilizing Clary’s et al. [Clary, E.G., Snyder, M., Ridge, R.D., Copeland, J., Stukas, A.A., Haugen, J., Miene, P., 1998. Understanding and assessing the motivations of volunteers: a functional approach. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 74, 1516–1530] scale of the motivational functions served by volunteering, we found that individuals who volunteer their services for ego-related functioning (protective) were more likely to report higher self-reported driving speeds, while individuals who volunteer their services for altruistic purposes (values) were more likely to report lower self-reported driving speeds. In turn, higher self-reported driving speeds were found to be associated with a greater number of self-reported crashes in the past two years. These results have important implications for volunteer driving organizations, as these results suggest that some motivations are associated with poorer driving performance.     

Diversity-invasibility across an experimental disturbance gradient in Appalachian Forests

Research examining the relationship between community diversity and invasions by nonnative species has raised new questions about the theory and management of biological invasions. Ecological theory predicts, and small-scale experiments confirm, lower levels of nonnative species invasion into species-rich compared to species-poor communities, but observational studies across a wider range of scales often report positive relationships between native and nonnative species richness. This paradox has been attributed to the scale dependency of diversity-invasibility relationships and to differences between experimental and observational studies. Disturbance is widely recognized as an important factor determining invasibility of communities, but few studies have investigated the relative and interactive roles of diversity and disturbance on nonnative species invasion. Here, we report how the relationship between native and nonnative plant species richness responded to an experimentally applied disturbance gradient (from no disturbance up to clearcut) in oak-dominated forests. We consider whether results are consistent with various explanations of diversity-invasibility relationships including biotic resistance, resource availability, and the potential effects of scale (1 m2 to 2 ha). We found no correlation between native and nonnative species richness before disturbance except at the largest spatial scale, but a positive relationship after disturbance across scales and levels of disturbance. Post-disturbance richness of both native and nonnative species was positively correlated with disturbance intensity and with variability of residual basal area of trees. These results suggest that more nonnative plants may invade species-rich communities compared to species-poor communities following disturbance.     

A 700-year paleoecological record of boreal ecosystem responses to climatic variation from Alaska

Recent observations and model simulations have highlighted the sensitivity of the forest-tundra ecotone to climatic forcing. In contrast, paleoecological studies have not provided evidence of tree-line fluctuations in response to Holocene climatic changes in Alaska, suggesting that the forest-tundra boundary in certain areas may be relatively stable at multicentennial to millennial time scales. We conducted a multiproxy study of sediment cores from an Alaskan lake near the altitudinal limits of key boreal-forest species. Paleoecological data were compared with independent climatic reconstructions to assess ecosystem responses of the forest tundra boundary to Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic fluctuations. Pollen, diatom, charcoal, macrofossil, and magnetic analyses provide the first continuous record of vegetation fire-climate interactions at decadal to centennial time scales during the past 700 years from southern Alaska. Boreal-forest diebacks characterized by declines of Picea mariana, P. glauca, and tree Betula occurred during the LIA (AD 1500-1800), whereas shrubs (Alnus viridis, Betula glandulosa/nana) and herbaceous taxa (Epilobium, Aconitum) expanded. Marked increases in charcoal abundance and changes in magnetic properties suggest increases in fire importance and soil erosion during the same period. In addition, the conspicuous reduction or disappearance of certain aquatic (e.g., Isoetes, Nuphar, Pediastrum) and wetland (Sphagnum) plants and major shifts in diatom assemblages suggest pronounced lake-level fluctuations and rapid ecosystem reorganization in response to LIA climatic deterioration. Our results imply that temperature shifts of 1-2 degrees C, when accompanied by major changes in moisture balance, can greatly alter high-altitudinal terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems, including conversion between boreal-forest tree line and tundra. The climatic and ecosystem variations in our study area appear to be coherent with changes in solar irradiance, suggesting that changes in solar activity contributed to the environmental instability of the past 700 years.     

A comparison of the driving behavior between remunerated and volunteer drivers

IntroductionPast research suggests that some groups of work-related drivers practice more safe driving behavior than others. However, no research to date has compared the driving behavior of those remunerated for their services and volunteer work-related drivers. As such, based on a theoretical discussion of the organizational and social contexts in which work-related driving occurs, this study hypothesized that volunteers would report safer driving behavior compared with remunerated drivers.MethodsOne-hundred and ninety remunerated drivers and 59 volunteers completed a self-reported driving behavior questionnaire.ResultsSome support was found for the hypotheses, as volunteers reported more safe driving behavior than remunerated drivers. Specifically, volunteers reported less inattention and tiredness while driving compared to remunerated drivers.ConclusionsThe results suggested that organizations need to formalize the roles and responsibilities of the work-related driver, and better integrate driving within the wider occupational health and safety system.     

Work-related driving safety in light vehicle fleets: A review of past research and the development of an intervention framework

This paper presents a critical review of past research in the work-related driving field in light vehicle fleets (e.g., vehicles < 4.5 tonnes) and an intervention framework that provides future direction for practitioners and researchers. Although work-related driving crashes have become the most common cause of death, injury, and absence from work in Australia and overseas, very limited research has progressed in establishing effective strategies to improve safety outcomes. In particular, the majority of past research has been data-driven, and therefore, limited attention has been given to theoretical development in establishing the behavioural mechanism underlying driving behaviour. As such, this paper argues that to move forward in the field of work-related driving safety, practitioners and researchers need to gain a better understanding of the individual and organisational factors influencing safety through adopting relevant theoretical frameworks, which in turn will inform the development of specifically targeted theory-driven interventions. This paper presents an intervention framework that is based on relevant theoretical frameworks and sound methodological design, incorporating interventions that can be directed at the appropriate level, individual and driving target group.