现代灾害、灾害研究与灾害学

本文系统分析现代灾害的特点；评述灾害研究及灾害学的历史与现状，预测其发展趋势；探讨灾害学的基本范畴，界定其学科体系的总体框架，对灾害研究及灾害学发展中的几个重要问题提出认识与建议。     

灾害基本成因研究

本文依据灾害的生态经济性质,在对各类灾害的具体成因进行概括与抽象的基础上,从地球系统、自然生态系统、社会经济系统、城市系统的运动与发展及灾害与这些系统的相互联系和相互作用等方面研究各类灾害的共同成因,即灾害的基本成因,并对其进行系统分析。     

Environmental management in Mainland China

Summary The author was a consultant, assigned from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), to provide technical assistance to China's environmental pollution research and control. His assignment in China from September 1 through October 8, 1983 was filled with visits and meetings at key research institutes, universities, and regulatory agencies in the cities of Beijing (Peiking), Shanghai, Hangchow, Zhuji and Zhiaxing (Fig. 1). Trips to famous historical sites and scenic points in and around those cities were squeezed in between the heavily scheduled meetings. Dr Shen was born and educated in China through college. This is a report of his first trip back to his homeland since he left 35 years ago. His ability to communicate with the Chinese professionals and social strata in their native tongue provided him with a greater advantage in understanding the current status of China's environmental sciences and technology in preventing air, water, and land pollution. His contribution lies not only in the technical transfer of environmental sciences and engineering, but also in strengthening the ties of cooperation and communication between American and Chinese professionals. Dr Shen is a senior research scientist with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation and an adjunct faculty member of the Division of Environmental Sciences, Columbia University.     

Size distribution and diurnal and seasonal trends of ultrafine particles in source and receptor sites of the Los Angeles basin

This paper presents results from a study conducted in two urban areas of southern California, Downey and Riverside, to examine the effect of different sources and formation mechanisms on the size distribution and temporal trends of ultrafine particles. Near-continuous data were collected for 5 months at each location. Our data clearly identified Downey as a source site, primarily affected by vehicular emissions from nearby freeways, and Riverside as a receptor site, where photochemical secondary reactions form a substantial fraction of particles, along with local vehicular emissions. In Downey, the diurnal trends of total particle number concentration and elemental carbon (EC) appear to be almost identical throughout the day and irrespective of season, thereby corroborating the role of primary emissions in the formation of these particles. This agreement between EC and particle number was not observed in Riverside during the warmer months of the year, while very similar trends to Downey were observed during the winter months in that area. Similarly, the size distribution of ultrafine particles in Downey was generally unimodal with a mode diameter of 30-40 nm and without significant monthly variations. The number-based particle size distributions obtained in Riverside were bimodal, with a significant increase in accumulation mode as the season progressed from winter to summer. During the warmer months, there was also an increase in sub-100-nm particles in the afternoon hours, between 2:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m., that also increased with the temperature. The differences observed in the ultrafine particle distribution and temporal trends clearly demonstrated that mechanisms other than direct emissions play an important role in the formation of ultrafine particles in receptor sites of the Los Angeles Basin.     

农业开发的企业化经营

目前企业化经营已被越来越多地运用于农业开发的生产管理中。本文阐述了农业开发中企业化经营形式及其重要性,分析了当前企业化经营优势尚未充分发挥的原因,提出了加强农业开发企业化管理的对策。     

江苏省耕地资源的发展趋势及潜力分析

根据《江苏统计年鉴(1998年)》,对江苏省耕地资源在数量、质量两方面的历年发展趋势进行了分析,并针对耕地资源存在的数量减少、质量恶化现状,对江苏耕地持续利用的潜力进行了探讨。     

生物膜与A／O工艺耦合快速降解氨氮

应用由城市污水处理厂序批式间歇反应器（SBR）中筛选得到的4株特殊氨氧化菌，分别在SBR和有回流的生物膜与A／O工艺耦合体系培养中，考察其降解低碳高氨氮废水的功能。结果表明，自养硝化与异养氨氧化菌的混合菌群较单一自养硝化菌株降解氨氮速率快；在生物膜与A／O工艺耦合系统中，自养硝化与异养氨氧化菌协同代谢加速氨氮氧化脱除，氨氮脱除速率远比SBR系统快。对生物膜与A／O工艺耦合系统中氨氮脱除动力学进行了研究，模拟了NH4^＋、NO2^-；质量浓度与氨氮脱除比速率之间的关系，模型得到了较好的验证。     

Temporal and spatial characteristics of the urban heat island during rapid urbanization in Shanghai, China

Based on meteorological data from 1978 to 2007, we investigated the annual, seasonal, and fixed hourly variations of Shanghai urban heat island (UHI) in urban and suburban areas and spatial distribution of UHI. The results demonstrated a remarkable interannual increase of UHI intensity in Shanghai. The UHI was the strongest in autumn and the weakest in summer, as a consequence of the prevailing weather conditions. Similar to previous studies of other cities, the UHI in Shanghai was stronger in the nighttime than in the daytime. The SW–NE cross section followed the general cross section of the typical UHI described by Oke (1987) who defines its characteristic parts as “cliff”, “plateau”, and “peak”. Analysis of the association of UHI and urbanization indicated that the UHI increased with the expansion of population and rapid increase of gross domestic product. The continuous increase of power consumption and area of paved road and decrease of area of cropland caused the growth of UHI intensity. Green land had a positive effect on mitigation of heat island based on an inversed U-shaped curve with UHI intensity.     

Predicting future invasion risk of three widespread malignant weeds on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,using multi-algorithm ensemble models北大核心CSCD

农田恶性杂草相比普通杂草的传播更为迅速且难以有效防治,对农业生产危害严重.明确典型恶性杂草当前潜在分布面积及未来气候变化下对耕地的潜在入侵风险对农业生产管理具有重要意义.以广泛分布于青藏高原农田中的3种常见恶性杂草,即野燕麦(Avena fatua L.)、一年生早熟禾(Poa annua L.)和狗尾草[Setaria viridis(L.)P.Beauv.]为研究对象,利用广义增强模型(GBM)、广义线性模型(GLM)、人工神经网络(ANN)、最大熵(MaxEnt)、随机森林(RF)及多元自适应回归样条(MARS)算法集合预测上述3种杂草在青藏高原的潜在地理分布以及驱动其变化的关键因子,以评估其对耕地的入侵风险.未来气候场景采用最新的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)框架下2050年的4种共享经济路线(SSP1-2.6、2-4.5、3-7.0、5-8.5).结果显示:野燕麦适宜分布区面积约为3.5912×10^(5) km^(2),主要分布于四川西南部及青海东部,零星分布于甘肃、西藏和新疆;一年生早熟禾和狗尾草的适宜分布区面积约为4.3046×10^(5) km^(2)和2.0036×10^(5) km^(2),均主要分布于四川西南部和西藏东南部,零星分布于青海东部和甘肃南部.年均温是3种杂草分布的最主要驱动因子.此外,人类足迹和土壤有效氮是影响野燕麦分布的相对重要因子;土壤酸碱度、最暖季降水量是影响一年生早熟禾分布的重要因子;温度季节性、最暖季降水量是影响狗尾草分布的重要因子.预计至2050年,3种杂草在4种情境下均会出现不同程度的扩张,狗尾草的扩张面积表现出随辐射强迫的增强呈先升高后趋于稳定的趋势,而另两种杂草则呈先升后降的趋势.预计3种杂草的潜在分布面积在耕地中的占比与扩张面积的变化趋势一致,且在主产区的占比高于非主产区.模拟结果表明,未来气候变化下,随着3种恶性杂草的适宜分布区面积的扩张,其对青藏高原耕地的入侵风险将增加,尤其是粮食主产区所面临威胁更为严峻,建议应重点关注青藏高原粮食主产区恶性杂草的生理生态、迁移扩散和防治技术研究.(图6表2参61)     

Effect of ambient O3 on mortality due to circulatory and respiratory diseases in a high latitude city of northeast China

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - In recent years, O3 pollution had been worsening in China and became a major challenge for human health. To evaluate the O3 effects on circulatory and...