Coupled Monte Carlo simulation and Copula theory for uncertainty analysis of multiphase flow simulation models

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Simulation-optimization techniques are effective in identifying an optimal remediation strategy. Simulation models with uncertainty, primarily in the...     

全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征

基于长江中下游地区1961~2100年区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟与1961~2005年气象站观测的逐日降水数据,通过统计计算年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率4个极端降水指数,研究全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,年降水量相对于1986~2005年减少5%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加7%、33%和4%;概率密度曲线表明,年降水量均值下降,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值上升,极端降水方差增大;年降水量、强降水量和暴雨日数在空间上表现为南部增加北部减少,极端降水贡献率则相反。(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,年降水量下降3%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别上升15%、46%和15%;年降水量均值稍有减少且方差稍有上升,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值和方差明显增加;年降水量减少区域位于长江主干以北,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率表现为绝大部分地区增加的空间变化特征。(3)全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加3%、7%、10%和11%;随升温幅度的增加极端降水均值和方差上升;极端降水呈增加态势的范围扩大。因此,努力将升温控制在1.5℃对降低极端降水的影响具有重要意义。     

Occurrence of benzotriazoles (BTRs) in indoor air from Albany,New York,USA, and its implications for inhalation exposure

Despite the widespread use of benzotriazoles as corrosion inhibitors in many household goods, studies on the occurrence of these compounds in indoor air are scarce. In this study, five benzotriazole derivatives were measured in 83 indoor air samples collected from various locations in Albany, New York, USA. Benzotriazoles were found in a majority of the indoor air samples, and the concentrations of their sum in bulk (vapor plus particulate phases) indoor air ranged from below the method limit of quantification to 492 ng·m^?3 (geometric mean: 5.8 ng·m^?3). The highest geometric mean concentration was found in air samples collected in parking garages (155 ng·m^?3), followed by barbershops (13.6), public places (11.5), auto repair shops (5.2), automobiles (4.5), homes (4.5), offices (3.7), and laboratories (2.8). Inhalation exposure to benzotriazoles was calculated on the basis of the measured geometric mean concentrations and air inhalation rate. The highest exposure dose was found for teenagers, with a geometric mean inhalation exposure dose of 79 ng·day^?1. The body-weight normalized exposure dose, however, was the highest for infants, at 3.2 ng·(kg bw)^?1·day^?1.     

周年磷肥旱季集中底施对玉-稻轮作磷肥效应的影响

春玉米-晚稻水旱轮作是近年来南方稻区种植制度变化下出现的新型两熟制模式。明确两季作物间磷肥的合理分配对玉-稻轮作作物产量与磷素利用效率的影响,对玉-稻轮作养分高效与高产协同实现,及丰富对水旱轮作前后季作物养分利用关系的认识具有理论意义。采用春玉米-水稻周年轮作田间试验,根据晚稻季磷肥前移至玉米季做底肥施用的比例及周年施磷量,设置7个磷肥施用处理,分别为两季作物均不施磷(P_0)、两季作物均按常规方法施磷(P_1)、1/3晚稻季磷肥前移(P_2)、2/3晚稻季磷肥前移(P_3)、全部晚稻季磷肥前移(P_4)、全部晚稻季磷肥前移且周年总施磷量减少15%(P_5)、全部晚稻季磷肥前移且周年总施磷量减少30%(P_6),分析了不同施磷处理作物产量、磷素吸收量及磷素利用效率的变化。与P_1相比,P_3与P_4处理显著提高了晚稻花后干物质的分配比例及晚稻产量,且其周年产量分别提高了4.87%和6.74%;P_5处理晚稻产量与P_1处理差异不显著,但P_6显著降低了晚稻产量。晚稻季磷肥前移施用明显促进了玉米及晚稻对磷素的吸收,显著降低了磷素的表观盈余量。与P_1处理相比,P_2、P_3、P_4处理两季作物周年土壤磷素依存率分别减少了11.63%、26.47%与22.08%。从磷肥利用效率看,P_4处理的磷肥周年累积回收效率、农学利用效率、偏生产力及磷肥产量贡献率均显著高于P_1处理,分别提高了102.46%、194.83%、6.73%与176.16%。与P_1处理相比,P_5处理周年磷肥产量贡献率及农学利用效率差异不显著,但分别提高了其磷肥回收效率与偏生产力32.56%和58.05%。玉米季施用的磷肥对晚稻有明显的后效作用,且比晚稻季施用磷肥具有更高的磷肥利用效率。所以在春玉米免耕复种晚稻时,可将晚稻季的磷肥全部前移至玉米季施用,并可减少15%周年施磷量。     

改性丝瓜络纤维对水体日落黄的吸附特性

采用化学改性的方法将丝瓜络制备为阴离子吸附剂,并将其用于水体日落黄(SY)染料的吸附,分别考察了吸附剂的用量、日落黄染料的初始浓度(C0)、p H值、温度(K)、时间(T)5个因素对吸附效果的影响。通过模拟吸附等温曲线、吸附动力学以及热力学方程并通过比表面积(BET)和红外光谱(FTIR)分析改性丝瓜络吸附染料前后和丝瓜络改性前后的变化情况以此探究其吸附机理。结果表明,p H对吸附效果影响不明显;最大吸附量随温度升高而增大,在298 K温度时最大吸附量达到137 mg/g,是未改性丝瓜络的9.78倍。Langmuir方程拟合吸附过程描述最好,吸附类别为化学吸附。吸附过程符合伪二级动力学,是一个自发和吸热的过程。改性丝瓜络可以有效去除水体中的日落黄染料。     

三峡工程对下荆江径流变化影响分析

下荆江作为长江最不稳定的江段之一,三峡工程的运行必然会对该江段的水文过程产生深远影响。以监利水文站日均流量数据为基础,研究分析了1983~2012年近30 a来下荆江年径流量、各月月均流量的变化趋势。结合三峡工程的阶段性蓄水,以蓄水前流量的自然波动幅度为基础,定量分析了三峡工程对下荆江径流变化的影响程度。趋势性分析结果显示,近30 a来下荆江年径流量呈波动性变化,无显著趋势。1~3月月均流量有极显著的增加趋势,10月份有极显著的下降趋势。从三峡工程蓄水前后各月份月均流量的绝对变化量来看,10、7和8月的变化量最大,但结合三峡工程蓄水前各月月均流量的自然波动幅度,相对变化率最大的月份为1、2和10月,其相对变化量均超过其自然波动幅度的1.5倍。对于相对变化量较大的月份可能产生的潜在影响亟需进一步的深入研究     

近十年重庆市NDVI变化及对气温降水的旬响应特征分析

在利用SPOT VGT NDVI旬数据、重庆市及周边20个气象站点1999~2010年日气温与降水数据以及研究区相关图件资料的基础上,运用均值法、差值法、趋势线分析和时滞互相关分析法分析重庆市NDVI变化的时空特征及旬平均NDVI与旬均温和旬降水的相关性以及时滞情况。结果表明：1999~2010年重庆市NDVI呈稳步上升趋势;NDVI下降的区域主要集中在渝西北、渝东北、渝南等三峡库区的外围;NDVI与气温和降水之间存在较强的相关性,且NDVI与气温较与降水之间的相关性更强,表明在研究区气温对NDVI的影响大于降水;NDVI与气温和降水之间的相关性和时滞情况存在明显的东南-西北差异,东南地区时滞较长、相关性低,西北地区时滞较短,相关性高;各植被类型NDVI与气温和降水的相关程度高低以及响应速度的快慢决定于各植被类型的生长发育规律及其对气温或降水要求的高低     

地面浓度反推法计算石化企业无组织排放源强

对某石化企业储罐区和原油脱酸装置区的无组织排放非甲烷总烃进行监测,对监测数据进行Pearson相关分析,运用地面浓度反推法计算源强。实验结果表明：原油脱酸装置区各采样线浓度间的相关性好,反推出的源强较为准确,50,100,150 m采样线的反推源强非常接近,分别为21.68,21.60,19.76 t/a;而储罐区监测浓度的相关性不佳,该区域的非甲烷总烃无组织排放源可能不单一,不适用地面浓度反推法计算其源强。     

改性SCAC催化臭氧氧化去除布洛芬效能与反应活性位点研究

采用不同的表面改性方法(去矿化处理、氧化改性、碱改性和还原改性)对污泥基活性炭(SCAC)进行处理,分别获得了表面金属含量低、碱位低、碱性官能团含量高及Lewis碱含量高的4种改性SCAC(SCAC-D、SCAC-S、SCAC-OH和SCAC-N),对比考察了改性前后SCAC催化臭氧氧化去除布洛芬(IBP)的效能,并探讨了SCAC催化臭氧氧化反应的主要活性位点。结果表明,5种SCAC催化活性顺序为:SCAC-N>SCAC-OH>SCAC>SCAC-S>SCAC-D;金属组分减少会直接影响SCAC的催化活性,碱位减少对其催化活性的影响相对较弱,说明SCAC表面较为丰富的金属组分是其催化臭氧氧化反应的主要活性位点;增加SCAC表面碱位(Lewis碱和碱性官能团),减少表面酸性官能团有助于提高其催化活性。     

Effects of cadmium on the photosynthetic activity in mature and young leaves of soybean plants

Cadmium (Cd) is a widely spread pollutant and can be easily taken up by crop from soil, resulting in a serious health issue for humans. The objective of this study was to comparatively investigate the photosynthetic activity, chlorophyll a fluorescence, chlorophyll contents, and spectral reflectance in mature and young leaves of soybean plants after being treated with different concentrations of Cd for 10 days. The photosynthetic rate, chlorophyll contents, actual photochemical efficiency of PSII, and photochemical quenching in the young leaves decreased more significantly with increasing concentrations of Cd in the nutrient solution, compared with those in the mature leaves, though the young leaves had less Cd concentrations. Thus, there was more excessive excited energy produced in the young leaves than that in the mature leaves. In the young leaves, due to more excessive excited energy, more reactive oxygen species may be generated, which further damaged the photosynthetic apparatus. It was supported by the fact that the decrease of reflectance in near-infrared wavelengths of the young leaves was more noticeable than that of the mature leaves. In addition, the chlorophyll a fluorescence transients of the young leaves was significantly different from that in the mature leaves, indicating that the electron transport of young leaves were inhibited much more severely than that of the mature leaves. These observations imply that the responses of photosynthetic activity of soybean leaves to Cd stress depend on their growth stage, and the Cd-induced inhibition of photosynthetic activity might be attributed to the decrease in chlorophyll contents and the decrease in mesophyll CO₂ assimilation ability cause by the Cd, which further decreased the consumption of ATP and NADPH, leading to accumulation of NADPH on the acceptor sides of the PSI, and then feedback inhibited electron transport in chloroplasts.