Semi-parametric statistical approaches for space-time process prediction

The problem of estimation and prediction of a spatial-temporal stochastic process, observed at regular times and irregularly in space, is considered. A mixed formulation involving a non- parametric component, accounting for a deterministic trend and the effect of exogenous variables, and a parametric component representing the purely spatio-temporal random variation is proposed. Correspondingly, a two-step procedure, first addressing the estimation of the non- parametric component, and then the estimation of the parametric component is developed from the residual series obtained, with spatial-temporal prediction being performed in terms of suitable spatial interpolation of the temporal variation structure. The proposed model formula-tion, together with the estimation and prediction procedure, are applied using a Gaussian ARMA structure for temporal modelling to space-time forecasting from real data of air pollution concentration levels in the region surrounding a power station in northwest Spain.     

Eier der Flußseeschwalbe (Sterna hirundo) als Indikator für die aktuelle Belastung von Rhein, Weser und Elbe mit Umweltchemikalien

In 1995, common tern (Sterna hirundo) eggs from the big German rivers, the Rhine, Weser and Elbe were collected to study the contamination with organochlorines and mercury. We found distinct differences between the rivers: common tern eggs from the Rhine had higher concentrations of PCBs and HCHs, while eggs from the Elbe had higher residues of DDT, HCB and mercury. Also toxic PCB congeners had higher residue levels in the Rhine. Considering all organochlorines, samples from the Rhine also had the highest concentrations, while those from the Elbe were the lowest. With 5.7 μg×g^?1 fresh weight, the ΖCBs had a level endangering breeding success. Fish eating birds should be used as indicators of the contamination of the rivers with environmental chemicals and should be included in monitoring programmes.     

Characterization of Organic Compounds in Compost-Amended Soil

Samples of compost-amended soil from waste dumping sites in Lagos Metropolis were extracted with dichloromethane (3 × 20 cm³) and the extract was evaporated at 35 °>C. The residue was extracted with 2,2,4-trimethylpentane, and portions of the solution were applied to a column containing silica gel from which aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons were eluted with n-hexane and toluene respectively. Analysis of the n-hexane fraction using gas chromatography showed the presence of a mixture of aliphatic hydrocarbons, ranging from C₉ to C₂₅, while ultraviolet analysis of the toluene fraction suggested 1,2-benzanthracene; 2,3-benzphenanthrene, chrysene and pyrene as polyaromatic compounds present in samples analyzed. The crude extracts were highly coloured and viscous. Total extractable organic residues in the 2,2,4-trimethylpentane extracts ranged from 36 to 89 mg g^-1 of soil.     

Metals in Feathers of Bonin Petrel, Christmas Shearwater, Wedge-Tailed Shearwater, and Red-Tailed Tropicbird in the Hawaian Islands, Northern Pacific

Levels of environmental pollutants are usually higher in mainland and coastal areas than in offshore or oceanic islands due to higher inputs from agricultural and industrial sources. Levels of heavy metals are usually higher in adult than in young birds, because they have had longer to accumulate metals in their tissues, and/or because they may eat larger, more contaminated, prey. We examined the levels of arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, manganese, mercury, and selenium in the adults and young of Bonin petrel (Pterodroma hypoleuca), Christmas shearwater (Puffinus nativitatis) and red-tailed tropicbird (Phaethon rubricauda) on Midway Atoll, and adult wedge-tailed shearwater (Puffinus pacificus) on Midway Atoll and on Manana Island (off Oahu) in the northern Pacific. All birds were analyzed individually except for Christmas Shearwater chicks where samples were pooled to obtain sufficient quantities for analysis. Significant (p<0.05) age-related differences were found for mercury, selenium, manganese and chromium in Bonin petrels, for selenium and mercury in Christmas shearwaters, and for chromium and mercury in Red-tailed Tropicbirds. Lead approached significance for all three species. Adults had higher levels than young except for chromium and manganese in the petrels and arsenic in all three species. There were significant interspecific differences in concentrations of all metals except arsenic for the adults nesting on Midway. Christmas shearwaters had the highest levels of all metals except mercury and chromium. Bonin petrels, the smallest species examined, had mercury levels that were over three times higher than any of the adults of the other three species. For wedge-tailed shearwaters, levels of chromium and lead were significantly higher, and manganese and selenium were lower on Midway than Manana. Knowledge of the foraging ranges and habits of these far-ranging seabirds is inadequately known, but does not currently explain the observed differences among species. We could not find a consistent pattern of differences between the burrow nesting species (Bonin petrel, Wedge-tailed shearwater) and the surface nesting tropicbirds. There was no consistent pairwise correlation between any metals across all species.     

Anuran Development, Density and Diversity in Relation to Agricultural Activity in the Holland River Watershed, Ontario, Canada (1990–1992)

Significantly lower anuran species diversity and density was recorded in a vegetable growing area relative to upstream and downstream sites in the Holland River watershed, Ontario, Canada. Egg hatching success and tadpole deformity rates of American toads (Bufo americanus americanus), green frogs (Rana clamitans melanota) and northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) eggs in water from field sites and control water were assessed. Compared to the control and the upstream site, the total abnormality rate (unhatched eggs plus deformed tadpoles) was higher for American toads in water from the agricultural and downstream sites. Total abnormality was higher in green frog eggs in water from the agricultural site and a downstream site. Trace concentrations of organophosphorus pesticides were detected most often in agricultural zone water and sediments than in upstream and downstream sites. Organochlorine pesticide residues, especially in agricultural zone samples, exceeded the no effect level guidelines for the protection of aquatic life. Ammonia, phosphorus, particulates, BOD and TKN were highest in the agricultural zone. Significant correlations between these parameters and anuran development suggest nutrient run-off as a causal or contributing factor in lower anuran diversity, density and reproductive success of American toads and green frogs in the site dominated by agriculture.     

Modelling and assessment of South African elephant Loxodonta africana population persistence

The use of a quantitative population growth model to investigate the persistence of South African elephant populations is explored. The model provides quantitative assessments of population persistence and confidence intervals for estimated parameters based purely on population size estimates. The analysis supports the view that most of the larger populations in the region are secure. This view is further supported by a lack of density dependent effects in most of the recovering populations and the high population rates of increase observed. This predominantly positive prognosis is in contrast with that emerging from most of the rest of the African continent where the populations are under greater threat because of habitat restriction and direct human conflict. This preliminary assessment of elephant population persistence suggests that “viable” populations may lie between 400 and 6000 individuals. Although not inconsistent with information-greedy genetic and demographic models, the relationship between population growth versus genetic and demographic models should be further investigated. The implementation of a metapopulation management strategy towards these smaller populations is advocated. In addition, as all of the populations included in this analysis have been afforded some degree of protection since the 1920s, continued protection would be a prerequisite for their continued survival.     

Transport of atmospheric fine particulate matter: part 2--findings from recent field programs on the intraurban variability in fine particulate matter

Air quality field data, collected as part of the fine particulate matter Supersites Program and other field measurements programs, have been used to assess the degree of intraurban variability for various physical and chemical properties of ambient fine particulate matter. Spatial patterns vary from nearly homogeneous to quite heterogeneous, depending on the city, parameter of interest, and the approach or method used to define spatial variability. Secondary formation, which is often regional in nature, drives fine particulate matter mass and the relevant chemical components toward high intraurban spatial homogeneity. Those particulate matter components that are dominated by primary emissions within the urban area, such as black carbon and several trace elements, tend to exhibit greater spatial heterogeneity. A variety of study designs and data analysis approaches have been used to characterize intraurban variability. High temporal correlation does not imply spatial homogeneity. For example, there can be high temporal correlation but with spatial heterogeneity manifested as smooth spatial gradients, often emanating from areas of high emissions such as the urban core or industrial zones.     

Major and trace elements of selected pedons in the USA

Few studies of soil geochemistry over large geographic areas exist, especially studies encompassing data from major pedogenic horizons that evaluate both native concentrations of elements and anthropogenically contaminated soils. In this study, pedons (n = 486) were analyzed for trace (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn) and major (Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na, P, Si, Ti, Zr) elements, as well as other soil properties. The objectives were to (i) determine the concentration range of selected elements in a variety of U.S. soils with and without known anthropogenic additions, (ii) illustrate the association of elemental source and content by assessing trace elemental content for several selected pedons, and (iii) evaluate relationships among and between elements and other soil properties. Trace element concentrations in the non-anthropogenic dataset (NAD) were in the order Mn > (Zn, Cr, Ni, Cu) > (Pb, Co) > (Cd, Hg), with greatest mean total concentrations for the Andisol order. Geometric means by horizon indicate that trace elements are concentrated in surface and/or B horizons over C horizons. Median values for trace elements are significantly higher in surface horizons of the anthropogenic dataset (AD) over the NAD. Total Al, Fe, cation exchange capacity (CEC), organic C, pH, and clay exhibit significant correlations (0.56, 0.74, 0.50, 0.31, 0.16, and 0.30, respectively) with total trace element concentrations of all horizons of the NAD. Manganese shows the best inter-element correlation (0.33) with these associated total concentrations. Total Fe has one of the strongest relationships, explaining 55 and 30% of the variation in total trace element concentrations for all horizons in the NAD and AD, respectively.