灾难事件后继风险决策

对小概率/高风险的灾难事件的后继风险决策进行探讨,着重在决策的认知神经经济模型框架下,讨论灾难事件后继风险决策的影响因素。灾难事件后人们的风险觉知、信念和假定、经验等认知因素以及灾后情绪因素对于决策分别有不同的影响;人们灾后决策的特点为决策更多直觉化而较少运用理性分析;灾难后继决策有随时间变化的趋势,灾难事件后人们为寻求安全感而出现"损失偏差"(loss bias),该偏差在"获得"和"损失"两种条件下的影响是不同的。灾后风险决策的内在机制或可用思维和决策的双加工系统(dual-process)模型来解释。最后展望了灾难事件后继决策进一步的研究方向。     

基于社会科学统计程序(SPSS)回归性分析的尾矿库事故预测模型

基于社会科学统计程序(SPSS)软件的分析功能,对调查研究中获取的尾矿库案例进行数据提炼和分类编码,找出相关因子并进行回归性分析。最终目的是找出尾矿库各个因素的内在联系,建立简单的尾矿库事故模型,从而可以初步预测尾矿库事故发生的可能性。该预测模型为尾矿库事故的研究提出了新方法,对于防灾减灾以及保护人民生命财产安全起到了积极作用。     

长时间单调模拟驾驶对疲劳的影响研究

通过模拟驾驶实验,综合评估长时间驾驶以及单调环境对驾驶员疲劳程度的影响是笔者研究的主要课题内容。借助于在模拟驾驶座舱上,4个健康样本分别参加高速公路(单调环境)和一般公路(非单调环境)的两组驾驶仿真实验,每组测试均持续两小时,一共进行10次实验。实验过程中,样本的操控数据(车速和方向盘转角)、反应时间、心电信号、主观疲劳状况等都同步记录并保存。实验结果表明长时间驾驶对操控能力、反应时间、心率、主观疲劳都有显著性影响(p<0.050),单调环境(高速公路)和非单调环境(一般公路)相比,车速方差区别显著,而尽管被试在高速公路的单调环境下驾驶后主观感觉更疲劳一些,但反应时间、心率等因素并没有显著性差异。     

工业点源大气污染扩散空间信息系统

开发了一个基于高斯扩散的大气污染扩散空间信息系统,用于模拟工业点源污染对区域大气质量的影响。该工业点源污染模型包括工业点源数据库、扩散参数、气象条件和大气质量评价4个主要数据库。用该模型计算上海市主要工业区的SO2排放,结果表明,该模型为模拟SO2污染扩散提供了一个有效便捷的方法。     

Lead,zinc and copper accumulation and tolerance in populations of Paspalum distichum and Cynodon dactylon

Both Fankou and Lechang lead/zinc (Pb/Zn) mine tailings located at Guangdong Province contained high levels of total and DTPA-extractable Pb, Zn and Cu. Paspalum distichum and Cynodon dactylon were dominant species colonized naturally on the tailings. Lead, zinc and copper accumulation and tolerance of different populations of the two grasses growing on the tailings were investigated. Tillers of these populations including those from an uncontaminated area were subjected to the following concentrations: 5, 10, 20, 30 and 40 mg l(-1) Pb, 2.5, 5, 10, 20 and 30 mg (l-1) Zn, or 0.25, 0.50, 1 and 2 mg l(-1) Cu for 14 days, respectively, then tolerance index (TI) and EC50 (the concentrations of metals in solutions which reduce 50% of normal root growth) were calculated. The results indicated that both Lechang and Fankou populations of the two grasses showed a greater tolerance to the three metals than those growing on the uncontaminated area, which suggested that co-tolerant ecotypes have evolved in the two grasses. P. distichum collected from Fankou tailings had the highest tolerance to Cu while Lechang population the highest tolerance to Pb and Zn among the tested populations, and tolerance levels in P. distichum were related to metal concentrations in the plants. P. distichum had a better growth performance than C. dactylon when both of them were grown on the tailings sites. Tolerant populations of these species would serve as potential candidates for re-vegetation of wastelands contaminated with Pb, Zn and Cu.     

环氧丙烷生产废液中1,2 -二氯丙烷的回收

介绍了从环氧丙烷生产废液中回收1,2-二氯丙烷的新方法。采用常压精馏、减压精馏、共沸精馏工艺分离环氧丙烷生产废液中的1,2-二氯丙烷。实验结果显示,共沸精馏工艺的效果最好;在含有一定量的共沸剂、釜温100℃、顶温86℃、回流比为1的条件下,塔顶馏分中1,2-二氯丙烷的质量分数可达到98％以上,1,2-二氯丙烷的回收率可达到97％以上。     

天津城市化发展趋向与水资源可持续利用

分析了新时期天津城市化发展趋向，从城市人口增长、城市工业结构、城市化进程等诸方面，探讨了城市化进程与水资源利用之间的关系，提出了适应城市化发展的水资源可持续利用战略。     

中国盾叶薯蓣资源现状及保护对策

论述了我国盾叶薯蓣的野生资源现状、人工种植生产现状、资源濒危原因及应采取的保护对策.指出:我国现有盾叶薯蓣野生资源蕴藏量估计在200万kg左右,资源数量已大为下降,然而年需求量却高达2亿kg以上,供需矛盾十分突出.造成资源濒危的主要原因是利用过度、生境及种质资源被破坏、家种者皂素含量低且质量差而不能大批量用于皂素生产.建议在采取有效保护野生资源的同时,尽快建立全国性良种繁育基地,按GAP要求建立我国现代化、规模化、规范化的高产优质药材原料生产基地,从根本上解决当前盾叶薯蓣资源保护与利用的矛盾.     

Effects of fluoride on growth and reproduction of the army worm, Mythimna separata (Walker)

This paper deals with effects of airborne fluorine on the army worm, Mythimna separata (Walker), by rearing the larvae on the wheat foliage exposed to HF or fumigating the larvae on the artificial diet with the pollutant. Larval relative growth rate (GR) and index of population trend of the insect reduced by 5% and 11%, respectively, when the larvae were reared on the foliage taken from the wheat plants exposed to 0.87 g·dm^-2·day^-1 of fluorine compared with those of the control. An extra instar appeared in a majority of the larvae treated. Survival rate and GR of the larvae on the wheat plant being exposure to the same concentration of fluorine in field open-top fumigation device were 40% and 15% lower than that of the control, respectively. Similar experiment with the insect on the artificial diet also showed that direct impact of the pollutant on the army worm was greater than its indirect effect via their host plant.     

天津地区人群对六六六的暴露分析

以天津地区六六六(HCH)各介质浓度的实测数据和文献中相关参数为基础资料 ,采用多介质暴露模型,估算了天津地区人群对环境中HCH的暴露水平 .计算结果说明 ,该地区人群的终身日均暴露量为0.05μg·(kg·d)^-1,儿童、青少年和成人亚群的暴露水平分别为 0.10、0.06和0.04 μg·(kg·d)^-1.膳食摄入占总暴露量的 87%以上 ,是最主要的途径 ;其次是呼吸暴露 ,对总暴露的贡献达5%～10%.各项参数中,膳食结构和食品、气相HCH残留水平是影响暴露的重要因素 .