事故预测方法研究述评

将事故预测方法归纳为情景分析法、回归预测法、时间预测法、马尔可夫链状预测法、灰色预测法和非线性预测法6大类,并进行分析和比较.结果表明:1)目前的预测方法大多针对各自行业部门,因此采用自身相适应的预测方法和提高预测精度是事故预测的关键;2)剔除随机性和偶然性,提取异常点和异质性是工业事故进行预测建模的依据;3)系统安全是一个动态随机的非线性过程,应将定性与定量、线性与非线性、静态与动态预测方法相结合,进行组合预测才有可能实现最优预测;4)基于状态预测的事故优生理念,是未来事故预测理论的发展趋势.     

重型自卸汽车车架横梁异常断裂原因分析

针对无副车架的重型自卸汽车在使用过程中出现的车架横梁异常断裂问题,建立了以板壳单元为基本单元的自卸汽车车架有限元分析模型,采用NASTRAN有限元分析软件对车架强度进行分析.有限元分析结果表明,车架横梁异常断裂现象是横梁连接部位应力值大于材料的屈服强度引起的,这与实车车架断裂结果吻合.根据实际工艺要求,改造车架结构,将连接第2根横梁和纵梁的L板厚度变大,并将平衡悬架推力杆支座由整体式支撑改为分体式支撑,从而使两处的最大应力值分别比原结构下降20.4%和51.7%.改进后车架断裂区的强度明显提高,这表明改造方法有效.     

Characterizing effects of uncertainties in MSW composting process through a coupled fuzzy vertex and factorial-analysis approach

A coupled fuzzy vertex and factorial-analysis approach was developed in this study for systematically characterizing effects of uncertainties in a municipal solid waste composting process. A comprehensive composting process model was also embedded into the system framework and used to address substrate decomposition and biomass growth, as well as the interactions between moisture contents, temperatures, and oxygen concentrations. The applicability of the proposed method was verified through a custom-made pilot-scale composting system. Results from fuzzy simulation indicated that the fuzzy vertex method could effectively communicate implicit knowledge into dynamic simulations and thus provide valuable information for enhancing composting process control under uncertainty. The factorial analysis was effective in quantifying the proportion to which the uncertainty of each single or interactive effect of model parameters contributes to the overall uncertainty of the system outcomes. Thus, sensitive parameters that may lead to errors or unreasonable predictions can be determined. The proposed study system could not only be used in characterizing combined effects of uncertainties for composting processes, but was also applicable to many other environmental modelling systems.     

我国生物质废物污染现状与资源化发展趋势

我国的生物质废物具有产生量大、可降解有机物含量高的特点,如果能对其进行有效的利用,不但能减少污染,还将会有助于缓解我国能源短缺的现状。介绍了我国生物质废物的污染现状及生物质废物资源化的主要途径,指出我国生物质废物资源化中存在的问题,并提出今后的发展方向及发展对策。     

电子废弃物回收利用体系建设初探

电子废弃物是目前世界上增长最快的固体废弃物之一,其不合理处置会造成人体健康危害和环境污染,作为一种潜在可回收利用的二次资源,正日益引起人们的高度关注。概述了当前世界上一些发达国家电子废弃物回收利用体系现状,分析了我国目前的相关情况,提出了建设电子废弃物综合回收利用体系对于构建循环经济和和谐社会的必要性与重要性。     

吸烟室内污染对家庭成员呼吸系统健康的影响

应用“家庭健康问卷调查”的方法,对中国兰州,重庆,武汉,广州４城市８所小学中的儿童家庭进行“吸烟室内污染对家庭成员呼吸系统健康的影响”调查,结果表明,吸烟的家庭比不吸烟的家庭室内污染严重,对人体健康有明显影响,其儿童患感冒咳嗽咳痰,支气管等病症的发生率,父亲吸烟的家庭比不吸烟的家庭要高出２倍６倍。     

利辛M4.1地震前的流磁异常及其变化

安徽省利辛县张村镇 1 999 1 2 3 0发生M4 1地震 ,震前数日省流磁测量组在皖北进行了 1 999年第 4期流动地磁测量。运用Sδf方法分析此期流磁资料 ,可见明显异常。震后 ,异常恢复。分析认为 :Sδf方法在运用流磁资料作短期地震预报方面具有一定实用性。     

中国自然保护区可持续管理模式探讨——伦敦自然保护区管理模式借鉴

近年来,世界各地自然保护区迅速发展,如何有效持续地管理这些自然保护区成为一个重要的问题。文章分析了我国自然保护区现有管理模式的特点与存在的问题,简要介绍了伦敦自然保护区的管理模式现状,根据我国的实际情况,笔者认为中国的自然保护区应采用强制式和完全参与合作式相结合的管理模式,并提出了几点管理模式的改革建议。     

Investigations on boron levels in drinking water sources in China

To evaluate boron contamination of public drinking water in China, both dissolved and total boron contents in 98 public drinking water sources from 49 cities, 42 brands of bottled water samples from supermarkets in several cities, and 58 water samples from boron industrial area were measured by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Our experimental results showed that boron existed in public drinking water sources mainly in dissolved status with total concentrations ranging from 0.003 to 0.337 mg/L (mean = 0.046 mg/L). The mean boron concentrations in mineral and pure bottled water were 0.052 and 0.028 mg/L, respectively. The results obtained in this work showed that there was no health risk on view of boron in public drinking water sources and bottled water. In boron industrial area, boron concentrations in surface water and ground water were 1.28 mg/L (range = 0.007–3.8 mg/L) and 18.3 mg/L (range = 0.015–140 mg/L), respectively, which indicated that boron industry caused boron pollution in local water system.