改进的灰色关联分析在滑坡危险性评价中的应用——以广东省滑坡危险性评价为例

利用改进的灰色关联分析方法,采用“中心化”无量纲的处理方法,对广东滑坡灾害危险性的影响因素进行灰色关联度分析。通过地形地貌条件、地层岩性特征、地质构造特征、岩土体结构特性、水文地质条件、植被覆盖率、降雨分布、地震、人类经济工程活动等9个评价因素与滑坡危险性的关联度计算,得出各影响因素与滑坡危险性评价的关系,具有一定的客观性、科学性和合理性。     

岩溶地基土洞塌陷评价及处理

地下水(地表水)产生的渗透潜蚀作用、崩解作用等是土洞形成和发展的重要原因。对工程实例中的土洞,采用极限平衡法和压力拱分析法进行了稳定性判别。在土洞中充填砼,然后采用压力灌浆,灌浆所采用的水灰比为1∶1~1∶1.5,灌浆压力一般为0.15~0.30 MPa,地基处理效果好。     

走科技办学之路

苏州市第三中学地震监测站始建于1976年唐山大地震后，至今29年如一日，监测设备从土变洋，房屋面积从小变大，工作人员从业余到专职，功能从单一的监测发展到多内容结合的防震减灾知识普及教育，三代老师一棒接一棒，使地震监测和防灾减灾宣传工作不断与时俱进。目前，学校的防震减灾科普教育基地已成为全国中学系统唯一规模较大、设备先进、成绩突出的，集地震监测、学生科技活动和面向社会宣传防震减灾知识三大功能于一体的科普教育基地。     

催化光度法测定桂林风景点水中痕量铁(Ⅲ)

本文以过氧化氢-甲基红,在活化剂α、α~1-联吡啶存在下,建立了催化光度法测定痕量铁(Ⅲ)的方法,其灵敏度为2.68×10~(-11)gFe(Ⅲ)/ml,线性范围为0～0.6μgFe(Ⅲ)/25ml。用于桂林风景点水中痕量铁测定,结果令人满意。     

Crash frequency analysis of different types of urban roadway segments using generalized additive model

IntroductionThis paper utilizes generalized additive model to explore the potential non-linear relationship between crash frequency and exposure on different types of urban roadway segments.MethodsGeneralized additive models are used to analyze crash frequency data and compared with the commonly used crash rate method and generalized linear models using a five-year crash data set from Houston, Texas.ResultsThe study shows that the relationship between crash frequency and exposure varies by segment type and the linearity may only approximately exist in certain segment types. In addition, the generalized additive modeling results suggest that such relationship curves may not be monotonic. Finally, this study demonstrates that generalized additive models in general provide better flexibility and modeling performance than generalized linear models.Impact on IndustryThe generalized additive model provides a very promising alternative for crash frequency modeling and other safety studies.     

热水锅炉水冷壁管爆管事故综合分析

对在同一单位的三台热水锅炉发生多起水冷壁管爆管事故进行了综合分析,提出了相应的改进措施。     

聚乙烯微塑料对尼罗罗非鱼(Oreochromis niloticus)生长、抗氧化、免疫和肠道微生物的影响

近年来,微塑料作为一类新型污染物引起了国内外的广泛关注。笔者研究了0、0.01、0.1和5 mg·L^-1的高密度聚乙烯微塑料(high-density polyethylene, HDPE, 61～83 μm)胁迫尼罗罗非鱼(Oreochromis niloticus)28 d后的毒性效应。结果表明,HDPE微塑料暴露28 d后,尼罗罗非鱼的成活率、增重率、肝体比与对照组相比无显著差异(P>0.05)。尼罗罗非鱼肝脏丙二醛(MDA)含量在0.01 mg·L^-1和5 mg·L^-1 HDPE暴露组中显著高于对照组(P<0.05);谷胱甘肽转移酶(GST)活性在5 mg·L^-1暴露组中显著高于对照组(P<0.05);与对照组相比,暴露组尼罗罗非鱼肝脏的超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)和碱性磷酸酶(AKP)活性,以及鱼脑的乙酰胆碱酯酶(AChE)活性无显著差异(P>0.05),而在0.1 mg·L^-1暴露组中酸性磷酸酶(ACP)活性显著高于对照组(P<0.05)。尼罗罗非鱼暴露于HDPE微塑料28 d后,肠道菌群16S rDNA测序结果表明,样品中共获得465 336条优化序列,操作分类单元(OTU)总数854个;与对照组相比,微塑料暴露组尼罗罗非鱼肠道中变形菌门、厚壁菌门、拟杆菌门和蓝细菌门的丰度减少,放线菌门丰度增加,但无显著性差异;在5 mg·L^-1 HDPE微塑料暴露组中,衣原体门的丰度显著高于对照组(P<0.05)。综上可知,高浓度微塑料暴露能够对尼罗罗非鱼产生氧化胁迫并影响肠道菌群群落结构。研究结果可为揭示聚乙烯对水生生物的毒性效应及其潜在的生态风险评估提供科学依据。     

近场地震作用下库区深水钢筋混凝土高墩地震易损性分析∗

为研究近场地震作用下库区深水钢筋混凝土高墩的概率损伤特性,以90 m高的矩形空心薄壁钢筋混凝土深水高墩为研究对象,综合考虑桥墩设计参数和近场地震动的随机性,基于OpenSees软件建立深水高墩有限元模型,开展不同水深的7种工况(水深:0、15、30、45、60、75、90 m)下,顺桥向和横桥向近场地震激励的增量动力非线性分析。以截面临界曲率值为损伤指标,研究深水高墩的易损性。结果表明:各工况下,轻微损伤、中等损伤和严重损伤阶段的损伤概率均随地震波峰值加速度的增加而增大,并且当峰值加速度达到1.0g时损伤概率达到最大,而完全损伤阶段的损伤概率则在峰值加速度为0.5g时出现峰值点;近场地震顺桥向激励时,墩身中上部和墩底区域均较容易损伤,而横桥向激励时仅墩底区域较容易损伤;当水深超过45 m后,高墩最大损伤概率变化不大且截面曲率概率需求基本一致,45 m水深为深水高墩显著水深。因此,应重点分析水深达到高墩高度一半时深水高墩的损伤情况。     

Vegetation dynamics and climate change on the Loess Plateau,China: 1982–2011

Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation growth and its response to climate change is important to understand the mechanisms underlying ecosystem behaviors. This study investigated the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change during the growing seasons on the Loess Plateau in China by analyzing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the Land Long Term Data Record dataset from 1982 to 2011. Results showed that growing-season NDVI had increased at an annual rate of 0.0028, particularly in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. By contrast, the NDVI first increased from 1982 to 1994 (0.0013 year^?1, P < 0.05) and then decreased from 1994 to 2011 (0.0016 year^?1, P < 0.05) in the arid region. Temperature had a positive effect on NDVI in most periods within and across seasons in the semi-humid region but had no significant effect in the arid region. Precipitation had a positive effect on NDVI in the arid region in summer and in the semi-arid region in autumn. Summer precipitation was important for autumn vegetation growth in the arid region, whereas summer temperature increased autumn vegetation growth in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. Further analyses supported the lag-time effects of climate change on vegetation growth on the Loess Plateau. Precipitation shifts had 15- to 18-month time lag effects on vegetation growth in the three climate regions. Vegetation NDVI had a 17-month lag response to temperature in the semi-arid region. Human activities should not be neglected in analyzing the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change on the Loess Plateau.