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71.
Hyun‐Han Kwon Abedalrazq F. Khalil Tobias Siegfried 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2008,44(2):436-448
Abstract: It is now widely acknowledged that climate variability modulates the frequency of extreme hydrological events. Traditional methodologies for hydrologic frequency analysis are not devised to account for variation in the exogenous teleconnections. Flood frequency analysis is further plagued by the assumptions of stationary in the causal structure as well as ergodicity. Here, we propose a dynamical hierarchical Bayesian analysis to account for exogenous forcing that govern the summer season rainfall. The precursors for Korean summer rainfall at different frequencies are identified utilizing wavelet and independent component analyses. The sea surface temperatures, the ensemble of rainfall predictions by General Circulation Model, in addition to the typhoon attributes were found to have direct correlation with extreme rainfall events and were used as inputs to the logistic regression model. The model parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the resulting posterior distributions associated with individual inputs are analyzed to advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal impact of the teleconnections. Eight rainfall stations throughout Korea are considered in this analysis. We demonstrate that the probability of occurrence of extreme events could be successfully projected at a 90% rate of correct classification of extreme events. 相似文献
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Benthic epifauna in three areas of the northern North Sea was studied from 1999 to 2007 to investigate the effect of temperature
changes on community structure and species abundance and biomass. Abundance and/or biomass of 16 epifauna species was significantly
correlated with temperature anomalies of the mean sea surface temperature (SST) from 1971 to 2000. The response of species
to SST changes was different in the study areas depending on species life history and, most likely on food supply, which in
turn is strongly influenced by the timing and duration of primary production and regional hydrographical conditions (e.g.
stratification). Also, changes in community structure were obvious in the three areas between 2002 and 2003 coinciding with
high temperature anomalies and SST. On the other hand, these changes were mainly caused by the variability in abundance of
dominant species and altogether no clear trends in community structure were found. In contrast to epifauna communities in
the shallow southern North Sea temperature changes in the northern North Sea affected only single epifauna species until now. 相似文献
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