In this study, a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming (MRPP) method is proposed for supporting water quality management under multiple uncertainties. The MRPP method can handle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-random-boundary intervals, probability distributions, and interval numbers, and analyze the effects of uncertainties as well as their interactions on modeling outputs. It is applied to plan water quality management in the Xiangxihe watershed. Results reveal that a lower probability of satisfying the objective function (θ) as well as a higher probability of violating environmental constraints (qi) would correspond to a higher system benefit with an increased risk of violating system feasibility. Chemical plants are the major contributors to biological oxygen demand (BOD) and total phosphorus (TP) discharges; total nitrogen (TN) would be mainly discharged by crop farming. It is also discovered that optimistic decision makers should pay more attention to the interactions between chemical plant and water supply, while decision makers who possess a risk-averse attitude would focus on the interactive effect of qi and benefit of water supply. The findings can help enhance the model’s applicability and identify a suitable water quality management policy for environmental sustainability according to the practical situations.
Concentrations of degradation products of nonylphenol polyethoxylates (NPEOs) were analyzed in river water samples in order to determine the distribution characteristic of these alkylphenolic compounds in 18 major rivers of Taiwan. The degradation products of NPEOs were detected in all river samples, with the dicarboxylates alkylphenolic degradation products (CAPEC) being detected most frequently and at the highest concentrations. Concentrations of NP and NP1EO in rivers ranged from n.d. to 5.1 μg l−1 and n.d. to 0.5 μg l−1, respectively. The total concentrations of shortened carboxylates (i.e., NP1EC + NP2EC + NP3EC) and dicarboxylates alkylphenolic degradation products (CAP1EC + CAP2EC) ranged from n.d. to 63.6 μg l−1 and n.d. to 94.6 μg l−1, respectively. Concentrations of NP2EC, NP3EC and all CAPEC residues were determined semi-quantitatively by comparing with the internal standard. Significantly higher concentrations of CAPEC residues were detected in the river waters as compared to those of NP, NP1EO and NPEC degradation products and the average proportions of these compounds in the samples of the rivers were as follows: NP + NP1EO was 5 ± 2.5%, total NPEC was 25 ± 12%, and total CAPEC was 70 ± 12%. The high concentration ratios of CAPEC/NPEC illustrate that aerobic biodegradation plays a main route in the fate of NPEO in the rivers of Taiwan. 相似文献
This study proposes an easy-to-apply method, the Total Life Cycle Emission Model (TLCEM), to calculate the total emissions from shipping and help ship management groups assess the impact on emissions caused by their capital investment or operation decisions. Using TLCEM, we present the total emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) during the 25-yr life cycle of 10 post-Panamax containerships under slow steaming conditions. The life cycle consists of steel production, shipbuilding, crude oil extraction and transportation, fuel refining, bunkering, and ship operation. We calculate total emissions from containerships and compare the effect of emission reduction by using various fuels. The results can be used to differentiate the emissions from various processes and to assess the effectiveness of various reduction approaches. Critical pollutants and GHGs emitted from each process are calculated. If the containerships use heavy fuel oil (HFO), emissions of CO2 total 2.79 million tonnes (Mt), accounting for 95.37% of total emissions, followed by NOx and SOx emissions,which account for 2.25% and 1.30%, respectively.The most significant emissions are from the operation of the ship and originate from the main engine (ME).When fuel is switched to 100% natural gas (NG), SOx, PM10, and CO2 emissions show remarkable reductions of 98.60%, 99.06%, and 21.70%, respectively. Determining the emission factor of each process is critical for estimating the total emissions. The estimated emission factors were compared with the values adopted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).The proposed TLCEM may contribute to more accurate estimates of total life cycle emissions from global shipping.
Implications: We propose a total life cycle emissions model for 10 post-Panamax container ships. Using heavy fuel oil, emissions of CO2 total 2.79 Mt, accounting for approximately 95% of emissions, followed by NOx and SOx emissions. Using 100% natural gas, SOx, PM10, and CO2 emissions reduce by 98.6%, 99.1%, and 21.7%, respectively. NOx emissions increase by 1.14% when running a dual fuel engine at low load in natural gas mode. 相似文献