Objectives: The uncertainties of pedestrian mobility are important factors affecting the accuracy and robustness of an active pedestrian protection system. This study is to provide the means for probabilistic risk evaluation of pedestrian–vehicle collision by counting the uncertainties in pedestrian motion.
Method: The pedestrian is modeled by a first-order Markov model to characterize the stochastic properties in mobility according to field experiments of pedestrians crossing an uncontrolled road. Based on the assumption of Gaussian distribution, unscented transformation (UT) is employed to predict the collision risk probability with the symmetric σ-set constructed on the basis of discrete trajectory simulation. Simulation experiments were carried out with 10,000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulations as the reference.
Results: The probability density distributions of time-to-collision, minimal distance, and collision probability estimated by UT coincide with the reference ones under various vehicle–pedestrian conflict scenarios, and the maximal deviation of collision probability from the reference is 5.33%. The UT method is about 600 times faster than the MC method (10,000 runs), which means that the proposed method has the potential for online application.
Conclusions: This article presents an effective and efficient algorithm to estimate the collision probability by using a UT method to solve the nonlinear transformation of uncertainties in pedestrian motion. Simulation results show that the UT-based method achieves accurate collision probability estimation and higher computation efficiency than MC and provides more valuable information concerning collision avoidance than the deterministic methods in the design of a pedestrian collision avoidance system. 相似文献
Coal-based olefin (CTO) industry as a complement of traditional petrochemical industry plays vital role in China's national economic development. However, high CO2 emission in CTO industry is one of the fatal problems to hinder its development. In this work, the carbon emission and mitigation potentials by different reduction pathways are evaluated. The economic cost is analyzed and compared as well. According to the industry development plan, the carbon emissions from China's CTO industry will attain 189.43 million ton CO2 (MtCO2) and 314.11 MtCO2 in 2020 and 2030, respectively. With the advanced technology level, the maximal carbon mitigation potential could be attained to 15.3% and 21.9% in 2020 and 2030. If the other optional mitigation ways are combined together, the carbon emission could further reduce to some extent. In general, the order of mitigation potential is followed as: feedstock alteration by natural gas > CO2 hydrogenation with renewable electricity applied > CCS technology. The mitigation cost analysis indicates that on the basis of 2015 situation, the economic penalty for feedstock alteration is the lowest, ranged between 186 and 451 CNY/tCO2, and the cost from CCS technology is ranged between 404 and 562 CNY/tCO2, which is acceptable if the CO2 enhanced oil recovery and carbon tax are considered. However, for the CO2 hydrogenation technology, the cost is extremely high and there is almost no application possibility at present. 相似文献
The sol–gel method was used to synthesize a series of metal oxides-supported activated carbon fiber (ACF) and the simultaneous catalytic hydrolysis activity of carbonyl sulfide (COS) and carbon disulfide (CS2) at relatively low temperatures of 60°C was tested. The effects of preparation conditions on the catalyst properties were investigated, including the kinds and amount of metal oxides and calcination temperatures. The activity tests indicated that catalysts with 5 wt.% Ni after calcining at 400°C (Ni(5)/ACF(400)) had the best performance for the simultaneous catalytic hydrolysis of COS and CS2. The surface and structure properties of prepared ACF were characterized by scanning electron microscope-energy disperse spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), Brunauer–Emmett–Teller (BET), X-ray diffraction (XRD), carbon dioxide-temperature programmed desorption (CO2-TPD) and diffuse reflectance Fourier transform infrared reflection (DRFTIR). And the metal cation defects were researched by electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) method. The characterization results showed that the supporting of Ni on the ACF made the ACF catalyst show alkaline and increased the specific surface area and the number of micropores, then improved catalytic hydrolysis activity. The DRFTIR results revealed that -OH species could facilitate the hydrolysis of COS and CS2; -COO and -C–O species could facilitate the oxidation of catalytic hydrolysate H2S. And the EPR results showed that high calcination temperature conditions provide more active reaction center for the COS and CS2 adsorption. 相似文献