Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India

An ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) runs from the EU HighNoon project are used to project future air temperatures and precipitation on a 25 km grid for the Ganges basin in northern India, with a view to assessing impact of climate change on water resources and determining what multi-sector adaptation measures and policies might be adopted at different spatial scales.The RCM results suggest an increase in mean annual temperature, averaged over the Ganges basin, in the range 1–4 °C over the period from 2000 to 2050, using the SRES A1B forcing scenario. Projections of precipitation indicate that natural variability dominates the climate change signal and there is considerable uncertainty concerning change in regional annual mean precipitation by 2050. The RCMs do suggest an increase in annual mean precipitation in this region to 2050, but lack significant trend. Glaciers in headwater tributary basins of the Ganges appear to be continuing to decline but it is not clear whether meltwater runoff continues to increase. The predicted changes in precipitation and temperature will probably not lead to significant increase in water availability to 2050, but the timing of runoff from snowmelt will likely occur earlier in spring and summer. Water availability is subject to decadal variability, with much uncertainty in the contribution from climate change.Although global social-economic scenarios show trends to urbanization, locally these trends are less evident and in some districts rural population is increasing. Falling groundwater levels in the Ganges plain may prevent expansion of irrigated areas for food supply. Changes in socio-economic development in combination with projected changes in timing of runoff outside the monsoon period will make difficult choices for water managers.Because of the uncertainty in future water availability trends, decreasing vulnerability by augmenting resilience is the preferred way to adapt to climate change. Adaptive policies are required to increase society's capacity to adapt to both anticipated and unanticipated conditions. Integrated solutions are needed, consistent at various spatial scales, to assure robust and sustainable future use of resources. For water resources this is at the river basin scale. At present adaptation measures in India are planned at national and state level, not taking into account the physical boundaries of water systems. To increase resilience adaptation plans should be made locally specific. However, as it is expected that the partitioning of water over the different sectors and regions will be the biggest constraint, a consistent water use plan at catchment and river basin scale may be the best solution. A policy enabling such river basin planning is essential.     

Is the effect of forest structure on bird diversity modified by forest productivity?

Currently, the most common strategy when managing forests for biodiversity at the landscape scale is to maintain structural complexity within stands and provide a variety of seral stages across landscapes. Advances in ecological theory reveal that biodiversity at continental scales is strongly influenced by available energy (i.e., climate factors relating to heat and light and primary productivity). This paper explores how available energy and forest structural complexity may interact to drive biodiversity at a regional scale. We hypothesized that bird species richness exhibits a hump-shaped relationship with energy at the regional scale of the northwestern United States. As a result, we hypothesized that the relationship between energy and richness within a landscape is positive in energy-limited landscapes and flat or decreasing in energy-rich landscapes. Additionally, we hypothesized that structural complexity explains less of the variation in species richness in energy-limited environments and more in energy-rich environments and that the slope of the relationship between structural complexity and richness is greatest in energy-rich environments. We sampled bird communities and vegetation across seral stages and biophysical settings at each of five landscapes arrayed across a productivity gradient from the Pacific Coast to the Rocky Mountains within the five northwestern states of the contiguous United States. We analyzed the response of richness to structural complexity and energy covariates at each landscape. We found that (1) richness had a hump-shaped relationship with available energy across the northwestern United States, (2) the landscape-scale relationships between energy and richness were positive or hump shaped in energy-limited locations and were flat or negative in energy-rich locations, (3) forest structural complexity explained more of the variation in bird species richness in energy-rich landscapes, and (4) the slope of the relationship between forest structural complexity and richness was steepest in energy-limited locations. In energy-rich locations, forest managers will likely increase landscape-scale bird diversity by providing a range of forest structural complexity across all seral stages. In low-energy environments, bird diversity will likely be maximized by managing local high-energy hotspots judiciously and adjusting harvest intensities in other locations to compensate for slower regeneration rates.     

Future Impacts of Distributed Power Generation on Ambient Ozone and Particulate Matter Concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley of California

ABSTRACT

Distributed power generation—electricity generation that is produced by many small stationary power generators distributed throughout an urban air basin—has the potential to supply a significant portion of electricity in future years. As a result, distributed generation may lead to increased pollutant emissions within an urban air basin, which could adversely affect air quality. However, the use of combined heating and power with distributed generation may reduce the energy consumption for space heating and air conditioning, resulting in a net decrease of pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. This work used a systematic approach based on land-use geographical information system data to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of distributed generation emissions in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin of California and simulated the potential air quality impacts using state-of-the-art three-dimensional computer models. The evaluation of the potential market penetration of distributed generation focuses on the year 2023. In general, the air quality impacts of distributed generation were found to be small due to the restrictive 2007 California Air Resources Board air emission standards applied to all distributed generation units and due to the use of combined heating and power. Results suggest that if distributed generation units were allowed to emit at the current Best Available Control Technology standards (which are less restrictive than the 2007 California Air Resources Board standards), air quality impacts of distributed generation could compromise compliance with the federal 8-hr average ozone standard in the region.

IMPLICATIONS The San Joaquin Valley is a fast growing region that demands increasing power generation to sustain the economic development, and at the same time it is one of the worst polluted areas in the United States. Hence, the region demands alternatives that minimize the air quality impacts of power generation. This paper addresses the air quality impacts of distributed generation of power, an alternative to central power generation that can potentially reduce greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions throughout the United States.     

Levels of chlorinated compounds (CPs, PCPPs, PCDEs, PCDFs and PCDDs) in soils at contaminated sawmill sites in Sweden

Soil samples from five contaminated sawmill sites in Sweden were characterized with respect to chlorophenols (CP), chlorinated phenoxy phenols (PCPP, hydroxylated chlorinated diphenyl ethers), chlorinated diphenyl ethers (PCDE), chlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF) and chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD). The composition of chlorinated compounds in the soil samples was compared to the composition of two preservatives commonly used in the Scandinavian wood impregnation industry: the 2,3,4,6-tetrachlorophenol preservative called Ky-5 and the pentachlorophenol preservative Dowicide G. The levels of CPs in the soil samples ranged from 0.1 to 4500 mgkg-1 d.w., PCPPs from <0.15 to 940 mgkg-1 d.w., PCDEs from <38 to 6800 microgkg-1 d.w., PCDFs from 7.4 to 18000 microgkg-1 d.w. and PCDDs from 9.9 to 35000 microgkg-1 d.w. The resulting WHO-TEQ of PCDD/Fs in the soil samples ranged from 0.14 to 3000 microgkg-1 d.w. Despite a wide range of concentrations the congener compositions were similar within tetrachlorophenate and pentachlorophenate contaminated soils respectively. The contamination at each sawmill site may be linked to the use of either a tetrachlorphenol preservative, e.g. Ky-5, or a pentachlorophenol preservative, e.g. Dowicide G. Best-fit calculations were used to compare the chlorinated phenol contents of the preservatives to those of the soil samples. This revealed a positive correlation between the hydrophobicity (logKow) of contaminants and the ratio of their levels in soil to preservatives. The relative abundance of the chlorinated compounds varied greatly between the five sites studied, suggesting that their transport parameters differ substantially.     

Brood sex ratios, female harem status and resources for nestling provisioning in the great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus)

The theory of parental investment and brood sex ratio manipulation predicts that parents should invest in the more costly sex during conditions when resources are abundant. In the polygynous great reed warbler, Acrocephalus arundinaceus, females of primary harem status have more resources for nestling provisioning than secondary females, because polygynous males predominantly assist the primary female whereas the secondary female has to feed her young alone. Sons weigh significantly more than daughters, and are hence likely to be the more costly sex. In the present study, we measured the brood sex ratio when the chicks were 9 days old, i.e. the fledging sex ratio. As expected from theory, we found that female great reed warblers of primary status had a higher proportion of sons in their broods than females of lower (secondary) harem status. This pattern is in accordance with the results from two other species of marsh-nesting polygynous birds, the oriental reed warbler, Acrocephalus orientalis, and the yellow-headed blackbird Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus. As in the oriental reed warbler, we found that great reed warbler males increased their share of parental care as the proportion of sons in the brood increased. We did not find any difference in fitness of sons and daughters raised in primary and secondary nests. The occurrence of adaptive sex ratio manipulations in birds has been questioned, and it is therefore important that three studies of polygynous bird species, including our own, have demonstrated the same pattern of a male-biased offspring sex ratio in primary compared with secondary nests. Received: 1 June 1999 / Received in revised form: 10 January 2000 / Accepted: 12 February 2000     

Remediation strategies for rural territories contaminated by the Chernobyl accident.

The objective of the present paper is to derive remediation strategies for rural settlements contaminated by the Chernobyl accident in which annual doses to a critical group still exceed 1 mSv. Extensive radioecological data have been collected for 70 contaminated settlements. A dose model based on these data resulted in estimates that are on average close to and a bit less than the official dose estimates ('catalogue doses') published by the responsible Ministries of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. For eight remedial actions that can be applied on a large scale, effectiveness and costs have been assessed in light of their dependence on soil type, contamination level and on the degree of previous application of remedial actions. Remediation strategies were derived for each of the 70 settlements by choosing remedial actions with lowest costs per averted dose and with highest degree of acceptability among the farmers and local authorities until annual doses are assessed to fall below 1 mSv. The results were generalised to 11 contamination/internal-dose categories. The total numbers of rural inhabitants and privately owned cows in the three countries distributed over the categories were determined and predicted until the year 2015. Based on these data, costs and averted doses were derived for the whole affected population. The main results are (i) about 2000 Sv can be averted at relatively low costs, (ii) the emphasis on reducing external exposures should be increased, (iii) radical improvement of hay-land and meadows and application of Prussian blue to cows should be performed on a large scale if annual doses of 1 mSv are an aim to be achieved, (iv) additional remedial actions of importance are fertilising of potato fields, distribution of food monitors and restriction of mushroom consumption, and (v) for inhabitants of some settlements (in total about 8600) annual doses cannot be reduced below 1 mSv by the remedial actions considered.     

Outdoor and indoor cadmium distributions near an abandoned smelting works and their relations to human exposure

The relationship of measured or modelled Cd concentrations in soil, house dust and available to plants with human urinary Cd concentrations were assessed in a population living around a Cd/Pb/Zn smelter in the UK. Modelled air concentrations explained 35% of soil Cd variation indicating the smelter contributed to soil Cd loads. Multi-variate analysis confirmed a significant role of biological and life-style factors in determining urinary Cd levels. Significant correlations of urinary Cd with soil, house dust and modelled plant available Cd concentrations were not, however, found. Potential reasons for the absence of clear relationships include limited environmental contact in urban populations; the role of undefined factors in determining exposure; and the limited spatial scope of the survey which did not sample from the full pollution gradient. Further, the absence of any significant relationship indicates that environmental measures provide limited advantage over atmospheric model outputs for first stage human exposure assessment.     

Geographic and trophic patterns of OCs in pelagic seabirds from the NE Atlantic and the Mediterranean: a multi-species/multi-locality approach

Trophic ecology and geographic location are crucial factors explaining OC levels in marine vertebrates, but these factors are often difficult to disentangle. To examine their relative influence, we analyzed PCBs, DDTs and stable-nitrogen isotope signatures (δ15N) in the blood of 10 pelagic seabird species across 7 breeding localities from the northeast Atlantic and western Mediterranean. Large scale geographic patterns emerged due to the confined character and greater historical OC inputs in the Mediterranean compared to the Atlantic basin. Spatial patterns also emerged at the regional scale within the Atlantic basin, probably associated with long-range pollutant transport. Trophic ecology, however, was also a major factor explaining OC levels. We found clear and consistent OC differences among species regardless of the sampled locality. However, species δ15N and blood OC levels were not correlated within most breeding localities. Petrel species showed significantly greater OC burdens than most shearwater species but similar trophic positions, as indicated by their similar δ15N signatures. This pattern probably results from Petrel species feeding on mesopelagic fish and squid that migrate close to the sea surface at night, whereas shearwater species mainly feed on epipelagic diurnal prey. In sum, this study illustrates the lasting and unequal influence of past human activities such as PCB and DDT usage across different marine regions. In addition, our results suggest that multi-species designs are powerful tools to monitor geographic patterns of OCs and potentially useful to assess their vertical dynamics in the marine environment.     

Do feather-degrading bacteria actually degrade feather colour? No significant effects of plumage microbiome modifications on feather colouration in wild great tits

Parasites are known to exert selective pressures on host life history traits since the energy and nutrients needed to mount an immune response are no longer available to invest in other functions. Bird feathers harbour numerous microorganisms, some of which are able to degrade feather keratin (keratinolytic microorganisms) and affect feather integrity and colouration in vitro. Although named “feather-degrading” microorganisms, experimental evidence for their effects on feathers of free-living birds is still lacking. Here, we tested whether (i) keratinolytic microorganisms can degrade feathers in vivo and thus modify the colour of feathers during the nesting period and (ii) whether feather microorganisms have a long-term effect on the investment in colouration of newly moulted feathers. We designed treatments to either favour or inhibit bacterial growth, thus experimentally modifying plumage bacterial communities, in a wild breeding population of great tits (Parus major). Our analyses revealed no significant effects of the treatments on feather colours. Moreover, we found that differences in bacterial exposure during nesting did not significantly affect the colouration of newly moulted feathers. Our results suggest that significant feather degradation obtained during in vitro studies could have led to an overestimation of the potential of keratinolytic microorganisms to shape feather colouration in free-living birds.