Policy relevance of three integrated assessment tools—A comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a system of market support instruments, direct income transfers, and rural development measures, has been put through an ongoing reform process in recent decades. This paper introduces three policy impact assessment tools (SIAT, SEAMLESS-IF, MEA-Scope tool) and analyses how these tools have responded to a number of challenges for integrated assessment modelling as reported in the international literature. Significant progress has been made with regard to modelling linkages whereas other challenges, particularly those related to issues of scale and uncertainty management, require further efforts. It is also analysed which CAP instruments are represented and what kinds of effects can be analysed at different scales. Market instruments and direct payments are comparatively well represented, while the ability to model rural development measures is mostly beyond the scope of these tools. Because each tool has found a different solution for coping with the common challenges of integrated assessment modelling, the choice of one of the tools for a particular application depends strongly on the policy questions being asked. The SIAT provides the big picture via its ability to represent broad changes in policy instruments with EU-wide cross-sector impacts. The most comprehensive analysis of agricultural policy instruments can be obtained with SEAMLESS-IF. The MEA-Scope tool complements the other two approaches with detailed regional profiles.     

The BG Measurement System for Hazardous Substances (BGMG) and the Exposure Database of Hazardous Substances (MEGA)

German employers ‘ liability insurance associations or Berufsgenossenschaften (BGs)—institutions for statutoryaccident insurance—maintain a measurement system for hazardous substances, the so-called BGMG. The aimof the BGMG is to determine and document valid results of measurements of exposure primarily for preventionpurposes. The data are collected systematically, in parallel to the sampling in a company. Parameters which aresupposed to have a visible effect on exposure levels are documented. The MEGA database (documentation ofmeasurement data relating to workplace exposure to hazardous substances) holds 1,629 million measurementvalues, which have been compiled in since 1972. The database offers a host of selection possibilities forassessments depending on the evaluation strategy.     

Force-Velocity Characteristics of Individual Human Skeletal Muscles: TBCIat and TBCIong. Outline of the Method

The aim of the work is to outline a procedure of finding force-velocity (F–V) characteristics (F = f(V)) of individual skeletal muscles of the human locomotor system. The presentation is based on an example concerning extensors of the elbow joint: the lateral and long heads of triceps brachii (TBCIat and TBCIong). The experimental part of the procedure involves a natural movement of using the upper extremity to push an external object of variable, adjustable load, engaging both the elbow and shoulder joint.

Five men aged 23 took part in the experiment. Their task was to push the handle of a physical pendulum whose moment of inertia could be adjusted within the range of 58 kg m²-450 kg m², so as to give it maximum angular velocity. During each trial the movement of the trunk, of the upper extremity and of the pendulum was video recorded and the force applied with the hand to the handle of the pendulum was measured.

In order to find the F–V characteristics a simulation model SHOULDER was used, which is capable of solving the synergy problem for muscles of the arm and the shoulder girdle.

It was found that despite considerable dispersion of experimental points the respective regression lines revealed a clear tendency of decreasing muscle force for increased shortening velocity of the monoarticular head (TBCIat) and of increasing muscle force for increased lengthening velocity of the biarticular head (TBCIong) of the triceps brachii muscle.     

Knowledge and information needs of adaptation policy-makers: a European study

Across Europe, national governments have started to strategically plan adaptation to climate change. Making adaptation decisions is difficult in the light of uncertainties and the complexity of adaptation problems. Already large amounts of research results on climate impacts and adaptive measures are available, and more are produced and need to be mediated across the boundary between science and policy. Both researchers and policy-makers have started to intensify efforts to coproduce knowledge that is valuable to both communities, particularly in the context of climate change adaptation. In this paper, we present results from a study of adaptation governance and information needs, comparing eight European countries. We identify sources and means for the retrieval of information as well as gaps and problems with the knowledge provided by scientists and analyzed whether these appear to be contingent on the point in the policy-making cycle where countries are. We find that in this early phase of adaptation planning, the quality of the definition of needs, the way uncertainty is dealt with, and the quality of science–policy interaction are indeed contingent on the stage of adaptation planning, while information needs and sources are not. We conclude that a well-developed science–policy interface is of key importance for effective decision-making for adaptation.     

Integrating soil carbon cycling with that of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed model SWAT: Theory and model testing

In this paper we describe and test a sub-model that integrates the cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model. The core of the sub-model is a multi-layer, one-pool soil organic carbon (S_C) algorithm, in which the decomposition rate of S_C and input rate to S_C (through decomposition and humification of residues) depend on the current size of S_C. The organic N and P fluxes are coupled to that of C and depend on the available mineral N and P, and the C:N and N:P ratios of the decomposing pools. Tillage explicitly affects the soil organic matter turnover rate through tool-specific coefficients. Unlike most models, the turnover of soil organic matter does not follow first order kinetics. Each soil layer has a specific maximum capacity to accumulate C or C saturation (S_x) that depends on texture and controls the turnover rate. It is shown in an analytical solution that S_x is a parameter with major influence in the model C dynamics. Testing with a 65-yr data set from the dryland wheat growing region in Oregon shows that the model adequately simulates the S_C dynamics in the topsoil (top 0.3 m) for three different treatments. Three key model parameters, the optimal decomposition and humification rates and a factor controlling the effect of soil moisture and temperature on the decomposition rate, showed low uncertainty as determined by generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation. Nonetheless, the parameter set that provided accurate simulations in the topsoil tended to overestimate S_C in the subsoil, suggesting that a mechanism that expresses at depth might not be represented in the current sub-model structure. The explicit integration of C, N, and P fluxes allows for a more cohesive simulation of nutrient cycling in the SWAT model. The sub-model has to be tested in forestland and rangeland in addition to agricultural land, and in diverse soils with extreme properties such high or low pH, an organic horizon, or volcanic soils.     

Anaerobic inhibition and biodegradation of antibiotics in ISO test schemes

Municipal sewage is the main exposure route for antibiotics that are used in human medical care. Antibiotics that adsorb to the primary sludge and/or sur-plus activated sludge will enter the anaerobic digesters of municipal sewage treatment plants. Here anaerobic biodegradation or inhibition of anaerobic bacteria resulting in a disturbance of the process might occur. ISO standards 13641 (2003) and 11734 (1999) were used for assessing the anaerobic inhibition of 16 and the anaerobic biodegradability of 9 antibiotics respectively. Digestion sludge from a municipal sewage treatment plant (1g/l d.s.) was used as inoculum in both tests. In ISO 13641 (2003) most antibiotics showed only moderate inhibition effects after a 7 day incubation period, with EC50 values between 24 mg/l and more than 1000 mg/l (equal to mg/g d.s.). In contrast, metronidazol was decisively toxic to anaerobic bacteria with an EC50 of 0.7 mg/l. In the anaerobic degradation tests according to ISO standard 11734 (1995), only benzylpenicillin showed certain ultimate biodegradation after 60 days and most antibiotics inhibited the digesting sludge in the respective parallel tested inhibition controls. Thus the inhibition of anaerobic bacteria by antibiotics observed in the degradation tests was higher than expected from the results of the inhibition tests. The possible explanations are that distinct substrates are used (yeast extract versus sodium benzoate), that the digestion sludge loses activity during the washing steps performed for the degradation tests and that the exposure time in the degradation tests was 8 times longer than in the inhibition test.     

Field test of volatilization models

Four volatilization models were tested against field data from the Manchester Ship Canal and the River Main. The equations byMacKay andYeun, using Schmidt number and wind speed for the calculation of volatilization rate, were found to give the best results for the slowly flowing Ship Canal. Models using flow velocity grossly underestimated the real values for this waterway but were found to be superior for the faster flowing River Main. The results of this work indicate that volatilization models should be carefully chosen for a particular environmental situation. Additionally, the importance of the validation of such models against field data is emphasised.     

Land Use-related Chemical Composition of Street Sediments in Beijing

BACKGROUND: More than 10 million people are currently living in Beijing. This city faces severe anthropogenic air pollution caused by an intense vehicle increase (11% per year in China), coal combusting power plants, heavy industry, huge numbers of household and restaurant cookers, and domestic heating stoves. Additionally, each year dust storms are carrying particulate matter from the deserts of Gobi and Takla Makan towards Beijing, especially in spring. Other geogenic sources of particulate matter which contribute to the air pollution are bare soils, coal heaps and construction sites occurring in and around Beijing. Streets function as receptor surfaces for atmospheric dusts. Thus, street sediments consist of particles of different chemical compositions from many different sources, such as traffic, road side soils and industry. METHODS: Distributions and concentrations of various chemical elements in street sediments were investigated along a rural-urban transect in Beijing, China. Chemical elements were determined with X-ray fluorescence analysis. Factor analysis was used to extract most important element sources contributing to particulate pollution along a main arterial route of the Chinese capital. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The statistical evaluation of the data by factor analysis identifies three main anthropogenic sources responsible for the contamination of Beijing street sediments. The first source is a steel factory in the western part of Beijing. From this source, Mn, Fe, and Ti were emitted into the atmosphere through chimneys and by wind from coal heaps used as the primary energy source for the factory. The second source is a combination of traffic, domestic heating and some small factories in the center of Beijing discharging Cu, Pb, Zn and Sn. Calcium and Cr characterize a third anthropogenic element source of construction materials such as concrete and mortar. Beside the anthropogenic contamination, some elements like Y, Zr, Nb, Ce, and Rb are mainly derived from natural soils and from the deserts. This is supported by mineral phase analysis, which showed a clear imprint of material in road dusts coming from the West-China deserts. CONCLUSIONS: Our results clearly show that the chemical composition of urban road dusts can be used to identify distinct sources responsible for their contamination. The study demonstrates that the chemistry of road dusts is an important monitor to assess the contamination in the urban environment. Chemical composition of street sediments in Beijing comprises the information of different sources of atmospheric particles. RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK: This study is only a small contribution to the understanding of substance fluxes related to Beijing's dust. More effort is required to assess Beijing's dust fluxes, since the dust harms the living quality of the inhabitants. Especially the measurable superimposing of long scale transported dust from dry regions with the anthropogenic polluted urban dust makes investigations of Beijing's dust scientifically valuable.     

An object-oriented software for fate and exposure assessments

The model system CemoS¹ (Chemical Exposure Model System) was developed for the exposure prediction of hazardous chemicals released to the environment. Eight different models were implemented involving chemicals fate simulation in air, water, soil and plants after continuous or single emissions from point and diffuse sources. Scenario studies are supported by a substance and an environmental data base. All input data are checked on their plausibility. Substance and environmental process estimation functions facilitate generic model calculations. CemoS is implemented in a modular structure using object-oriented programming. e-mail: cemos@aphrodite.mathematik.uni-osnabrueck.de