On-Scene Injury Severity Prediction (OSISP) Algorithm for Truck Occupants

Objective: The aim of this study is to develop an on-scene injury severity prediction (OSISP) algorithm for truck occupants using only accident characteristics that are feasible to assess at the scene of the accident. The purpose of developing this algorithm is to use it as a basis for a field triage tool used in traffic accidents involving trucks. In addition, the model can be valuable for recognizing important factors for improving triage protocols used in Sweden and possibly in other countries with similar traffic environments and prehospital procedures.

Methods: The scope is adult truck occupants involved in traffic accidents on Swedish public roads registered in the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) database for calendar years 2003 to 2013. STRADA contains information reported by the police and medical data on injured road users treated at emergency hospitals. Using data from STRADA, 2 OSISP multivariate logistic regression models for deriving the probability of severe injury (defined here as having an Injury Severity Score [ISS] > 15) were implemented for light and heavy trucks; that is, trucks with weight up to 3,500 kg and ??16,500 kg, respectively. A 10-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of the OSISP algorithm in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: The rate of belt use was low, especially for heavy truck occupants. The OSISP models developed for light and heavy trucks achieved cross-validation AUC of 0.81 and 0.74, respectively. The AUC values obtained when the models were evaluated on all data without cross-validation were 0.87 for both light and heavy trucks. The difference in the AUC values with and without use of cross-validation indicates overfitting of the model, which may be a consequence of relatively small data sets. Belt use stands out as the most valuable predictor in both types of trucks; accident type and age are important predictors for light trucks.

Conclusions: The OSISP models achieve good discriminating capability for light truck occupants and a reasonable performance for heavy truck occupants. The prediction accuracy may be increased by acquiring more data. Belt use was the strongest predictor of severe injury for both light and heavy truck occupants. There is a need for behavior-based safety programs and/or other means to encourage truck occupants to always wear a seat belt.     

Suggested protocol for collecting, handling and preparing peat cores and peat samples for physical, chemical, mineralogical and isotopic analyses

For detailed reconstructions of atmospheric metal deposition using peat cores from bogs, a comprehensive protocol for working with peat cores is proposed. The first step is to locate and determine suitable sampling sites in accordance with the principal goal of the study, the period of time of interest and the precision required. Using the state of the art procedures and field equipment, peat cores are collected in such a way as to provide high quality records for paleoenvironmental study. Pertinent field observations gathered during the fieldwork are recorded in a field report. Cores are kept frozen at -18 degree C until they can be prepared in the laboratory. Frozen peat cores are precisely cut into 1 cm slices using a stainless steel band saw with stainless steel blades. The outside edges of each slice are removed using a titanium knife to avoid any possible contamination which might have occurred during the sampling and handling stage. Each slice is split, with one-half kept frozen for future studies (archived), and the other half further subdivided for physical, chemical, and mineralogical analyses. Physical parameters such as ash and water contents, the bulk density and the degree of decomposition of the peat are determined using established methods. A subsample is dried overnight at 105 degree C in a drying oven and milled in a centrifugal mill with titanium sieve. Prior to any expensive and time consuming chemical procedures and analyses, the resulting powdered samples, after manual homogenisation, are measured for more than twenty-two major and trace elements using non-destructive X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) methods. This approach provides lots of valuable geochemical data which documents the natural geochemical processes which occur in the peat profiles and their possible effect on the trace metal profiles. The development, evaluation and use of peat cores from bogs as archives of high-resolution records of atmospheric deposition of mineral dust and trace elements have led to the development of many analytical procedures which now permit the measurement of a wide range of elements in peat samples such as lead and lead isotope ratios, mercury, arsenic, antimony, silver, molybdenum, thorium, uranium, rare earth elements. Radiometric methods (the carbon bomb pulse of (14)C, (210)Pb and conventional (14)C dating) are combined to allow reliable age-depth models to be reconstructed for each peat profile.     

Trace Element Patterns and Seasonal Variability of Dust Precipitation in a Low Polluted City – The Example of Karlsruhe/Germany

Urban areas of different land uses can be distinguished by their specific patterns of atmospheric dust and trace element precipitation. Dusts emitted from industrial areas with fossil fuel processing, for instance, are enriched in V, Ni and Co. Cluster analysis groups sampling sites based on their specific element patterns. The resulting groups correspond to the surrounding land use: Urban sampling sites were identified showing similar patterns of dust and trace element precipitation as a reference site; dusts of other urban sites were influenced by diffuse pollution (caused by non-point and dispersed pollution sources), or by specific industrial emissions. Cluster analysis was also used to characterize the chemical dust composition. Three clusters of typical element associations were distinguished. These clusters represent the dust matrix, diffuse urban pollution and pollution due to fossil fuel processing. Dust precipitation and chemical dust composition show seasonal variations. Dust precipitation and concentrations of trace elements in the precipitated dust are negatively correlated during the annual courses. The highest concentrations of trace elements occur during winter, whereas the highest precipitations of dust were found during summer. This finding stresses that both, precipitation and concentration have to be addressed for the environmental assessment of urban dusts.     

Ecotoxicity evaluation of selected sulfonamides

Sulfonamides (SAs) are a group of antibiotic drugs widely used in veterinary medicine. The contamination of the environment by these pharmaceuticals has raised concern in recent years. However, knowledge of their (eco)toxicity is still very basic and is restricted to just a few of these substances. Even though their toxicological analysis has been thoroughly performed and ecotoxicological data are available in the literature, a systematic analysis of their ecotoxicological potential has yet to be carried out. To fill this gap, 12 different SAs were chosen for detailed analysis with the focus on different bacteria as well as non-target organisms (algae and plants). A flexible (eco)toxicological test battery was used, including enzymes (acetylcholinesterase and glutathione reductase), luminescent marine bacteria (Vibrio fischeri), soil bacteria (Arthrobacter globiformis), limnic unicellular green algae (Scenedesmus vacuolatus) and duckweed (Lemna minor), in order to take into account both the aquatic and terrestrial compartments of the environment, as well as different trophic levels. It was found that SAs are not only toxic towards green algae (EC₅₀ = 1.54-32.25 mg L⁻¹) but have even stronger adverse effect on duckweed (EC₅₀ = 0.02-4.89 mg L⁻¹) than atrazine - herbicide (EC₅₀ = 2.59 mg L⁻¹).     

Atmospheric fate of non-volatile and ionizable compounds

A modified version of the Multimedia Activity Model for Ionics MAMI, including two-layered atmosphere, air-water interface partitioning, intermittent rainfall and variable cloud coverage was developed to simulate the atmospheric fate of ten low volatility or ionizable organic chemicals. Probabilistic simulations describing the uncertainty of substance and environmental input properties were run to evaluate the impact of atmospheric parameters, ionization and air-water (or air-ice) interface enrichment.The rate of degradation and the concentration of OH radicals, the duration of dry and wet periods, and the parameters describing air-water partitioning (K_AW and temperature) and ionization (pK_a and pH) are the key parameters determining the potential for long range transport. Wet deposition is an important removal process, but its efficiency is limited, primarily by the duration of the dry period between precipitation events.Given the underlying model assumptions, the presence of clouds contributes to the higher persistence in the troposphere because of the capacity of cloud water to accumulate and transport non-volatile (e.g. 2,4-D) and surface-active chemicals (e.g. PFOA). This limits the efficiency of wet deposition from the troposphere enhancing long-range transport.     

Modelling the impacts of land-use and drainage density on the water balance of a lowland–floodplain landscape in northeast Germany

This study presents the modelling approach and impact assessment of different strategies for managing wetland water resources and groundwater dynamics of landscapes which are characterised by the hydrological interactions of floodplains and the adjacent lowlands. The assessment of such impacts is based on the analysis of simulation results of complex scenarios of land-use changes and changes of the density of the drainage-network. The method has been applied to the 198 km² Lower Havel River catchment as a typical example of a lowland–floodplain landscape. The model used consists of a coupled soil water and groundwater model, where the latter one is additionally coupled to the surface channel network. Thus, the hydrological processes of the variable saturated soil zone as well as lateral groundwater flow and the interactions between surface water and groundwater are simulated in an integrated manner. The model was validated for several years of significantly different meteorological conditions. The comparison of lateral and vertical water balance components showed the dominance of lateral flow processes and the importance of the interactions between surface water and groundwater for the overall water balance and the hydrological state of that type of landscape.The simulation of land-use change scenarios showed only minor effects of land-use change on the water balance and groundwater recharge. Changes of groundwater recharge were particularly small within the wetland areas being part of the floodplain where interactions between surface water and groundwater are most pronounced. Alterations in vertical groundwater recharge were counter-balanced by the lateral interaction between groundwater and surface water. More significant deviations in groundwater recharge and storage were observed in the more peripheral areas towards the catchment boundaries which are characterised by greater groundwater distance from the surface and less intense of ground water–surface water interactions.However, the simulation results assuming a coarsening of the drainage network density showed the importance of drainage structure and geometry for the water balance: The removal of the artificial draining ditches in the floodplain would result in significant alterations of total groundwater recharge, i.e., less recharge from winter to early summer and an increase of groundwater recharge during summer and autumn. Furthermore the different effects of groundwater recharge alterations on the dynamics of groundwater stages within the wetland areas close to the floodplains compared to the more peripheral areas could be quantified. Finally, it will be discussed that a well-adjusted co-ordination of different management measures is required to reach a sustainable water resources management of such lowland–floodplain landscapes.     

Integrating soil carbon cycling with that of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed model SWAT: Theory and model testing

In this paper we describe and test a sub-model that integrates the cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model. The core of the sub-model is a multi-layer, one-pool soil organic carbon (S_C) algorithm, in which the decomposition rate of S_C and input rate to S_C (through decomposition and humification of residues) depend on the current size of S_C. The organic N and P fluxes are coupled to that of C and depend on the available mineral N and P, and the C:N and N:P ratios of the decomposing pools. Tillage explicitly affects the soil organic matter turnover rate through tool-specific coefficients. Unlike most models, the turnover of soil organic matter does not follow first order kinetics. Each soil layer has a specific maximum capacity to accumulate C or C saturation (S_x) that depends on texture and controls the turnover rate. It is shown in an analytical solution that S_x is a parameter with major influence in the model C dynamics. Testing with a 65-yr data set from the dryland wheat growing region in Oregon shows that the model adequately simulates the S_C dynamics in the topsoil (top 0.3 m) for three different treatments. Three key model parameters, the optimal decomposition and humification rates and a factor controlling the effect of soil moisture and temperature on the decomposition rate, showed low uncertainty as determined by generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation. Nonetheless, the parameter set that provided accurate simulations in the topsoil tended to overestimate S_C in the subsoil, suggesting that a mechanism that expresses at depth might not be represented in the current sub-model structure. The explicit integration of C, N, and P fluxes allows for a more cohesive simulation of nutrient cycling in the SWAT model. The sub-model has to be tested in forestland and rangeland in addition to agricultural land, and in diverse soils with extreme properties such high or low pH, an organic horizon, or volcanic soils.     

A Model for Landscape Planning Under Complex Spatial Conditions

We present a new mathematical programming framework that is adaptable to a variety of spatially explicit landscape problems in environmental investment, conservation, and land-use planning, transport planning, and agriculture. As part of capturing spatial interdependencies, the framework considers decision variables at two levels, finely spaced grid cells and landholdings. We applied the framework to an environmental investment problem using objective functions representing biodiversity and carbon sequestration. We also tested the model to optimize the path of a road through part of the landscape. Using the Nambucca case study in eastern Australia, we applied a hybrid greedy randomised adaptive search procedure (GRASP) to find solutions to the model.     

Amphibian myiasis. Blowfly larvae (Lucilia bufonivora,Diptera: Calliphoridae) coping with the poisonous skin secretion of the common toad (Bufo bufo)

The blowfly Lucilia bufonivora shows high host specificity for toads despite the host’s toxic skin secretion, which consists mainly of bufadienolides. These toxins are effective blockers of the Na⁺, K⁺-ATPase, an enzyme that is essential for many physiological processes in animals. Whereas common toad (Bufo bufo) toxins were identified in the larvae of the fly, few toxins were found in the pupae and empty puparia as trace amounts, while adult flies were entirely free of these toxic compounds. Similar results were obtained when larvae of generalist necrophagous blowflies (L. sericata, Calliphora vicina) fed on toad carcasses. Analysis of the Na⁺, K⁺-ATPase gene revealed no amino acid substitution at positions known to mediate resistance to bufadienolides in other systems. Alternative mechanisms of resistance such as efficient excretion of the compounds may enable the flies to use this poisonous food source.     

Adoption Potential of Conservation Agriculture Practices in Sub-Saharan Africa: Results from Five Case Studies

Despite the reported benefits of conservation agriculture (CA), its wider up-scaling in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has remained fairly limited. This paper shows how a newly developed qualitative expert assessment approach for CA adoption (QAToCA) was applied to determine its adoption potential in SSA. CA adoption potential is not a predictor of observed adoption rates. Instead, our aim was to systematically check relevant factors that may be influencing its adoption. QAToCA delivers an assessment of how suitable conditions “and thus the likelihood for CA adoption” are. Results show that the high CA adoption potentials exhibited by the Malawi and Zambia case relate mostly to positive institutional factors. On the other hand, the low adoption potential of the Zimbabwe case, in spite of observed higher estimates, is attributed mainly to unstable and less secured market conditions for CA. In the case of Southern Burkina Faso, the potential for CA adoption is determined to be high, and this assessment deviates from lower observed figures. This is attributed mainly to strong competition of CA and livestock for residues in this region. Lastly, the high adoption potential found in Northern Burkina Faso is explained mainly by the fact that farmers here have no alternative other than to adopt the locally adapted CA system—Zaï farming. Results of this assessment should help promoters of CA in the given regions to reflect on their activities and to eventually adjust or redesign them based on a more explicit understanding of where problems and opportunities are found.