Bibliometric analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment research

The first step in planning the actions for climate change adaptation involves performing Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) to vulnerable populations and ecological systems. The study aims to perform a bibliometric analysis on the CCVA research field to identify how it was structured in terms of the mostly occurring research terms and their citation impact. A set of scientific papers related to CCVA (n?=?8941) were retrieved via Elsevier’s Scopus database over the period 1996–2016 using specific keywords. The search was carried out in February 2017. The number of yearly papers published in CCVA research field increased after 2006, increasing more than six times in 2016. Our co-occurrences term analysis grouped four clusters related to (i) exposure, sensitivity, and quantitative methods for assessing CCVA, (ii) adaptive capacity and qualitative approaches, (iii) CCVA integrated approaches by combining participatory methods to quantitative ones, and (iv) collaboration and participation issues related to global change. The co-citation analysis showed that highly cited research terms were related to adaptation, exposure factors, and related changes and global change. This bibliometric analysis has provided an overall picture on the CCVA research field, particularly highlighting its utility for climate change adaptation.     

Hierarchical modeling of seed variety yields and decision making for future planting plans

Eradicating hunger and malnutrition is a key development goal of the twenty first century. This paper addresses the problem of optimally identifying seed varieties to reliably increase crop yield within a risk-sensitive decision making framework. Specifically, a novel hierarchical machine learning mechanism for predicting crop yield (the yield of different seed varieties of the same crop) is introduced. This prediction mechanism is then integrated with a weather forecasting model and three different approaches for decision making under uncertainty to select seed varieties for planting so as to balance yield maximization and risk. The model was applied to the problem of soybean variety selection given in the 2016 Syngenta Crop Challenge. The prediction model achieved a median absolute error of 235 kg/ha and thus provides good estimates for input into the decision models. The decision models identified the selection of soybean varieties that appropriately balance yield and risk as a function of the farmer’s risk aversion level. More generally, the models can support farmers in decision making about which seed varieties to plant.     

Adaptive cluster double sampling with post stratification with application to an epiphytic lichen community

The implementation of an adaptive cluster sampling design often becomes logistically challenging because variation in the final sampling effort introduces uncertainty in survey planning. To overcome this drawback, an inexpensive and easy to measure auxiliary variable could be used in a two-phase survey strategy, called adaptive cluster double sampling (Félix-Medina and Thompson in Biometrika 91:877–891, 2004). In this paper, a two-phase sampling strategy is proposed which combines the idea of adaptive cluster double sampling with the principle of post-stratification. In the first-phase an adaptive cluster sample is selected by means of an inexpensive auxiliary variable. Networks from the first phase sampling are then post-stratified according to their size. In the second-phase, the network structure is used to select a subsample of units by means of stratified random sampling. The proposed sampling strategy employs stratification without requiring an a priori delineation of the strata. Indeed, the strata sizes are estimated in the course of the two-phase sampling process. Therefore, it is suitable for situations where stratification is suspected to be efficient but strata cannot be easily delineated in advance. In this framework, a new type of estimator for the population mean which mimics the stratified sampling mean estimator and an estimator of the sampling variance are proposed. The results of a simulation study confirm, as expected, that the use of post-stratification leads to gain in precision for the estimator. The proposed sampling strategy is applied for targeting an epiphytic lichen community Lobarion pulmonariae in a forest area of the Northern Apennines (N-Italy), characterized by several species of conservation concern.     

A numerical (LES) investigation of a shallow-water, mid-latitude, tidally-driven boundary layer

We investigate turbulent mixing in a tidally driven, mid-latitude, shallow-water basin. The study is carried out numerically at a laboratory-scale, using large-eddy simulation. We compared the results of the simulation with those of a correspondent purely oscillatory flow (Stokes boundary layer). The effect of rotation on the flow dynamics is twofold. First, rotation gives rise to a mean spanwise flow that concurs to redistribute the turbulent energy among the Reynolds stresses, in particular between the horizontal directions, thus increasing the mixing across the water column and thickening the layer where developed turbulence is observable. Second, the presence of the horizontal component of the background vorticity (latitude effect) breaks the symmetry between the two semi-cycles of the oscillation, since turbulence results suppressed/enhanced during the first/second semi-cycle. These two effects significantly modify the turbulent characteristics with respect to the purely oscillating flow, although the mechanisms that generates turbulence present similar features. The qualitative agreement between our results and some measurements carried out in two sites with characteristics similar to the case analyzed suggests that the outcomes here provided may be of general use for the analysis of mid-latitude, neutrally stratified, shallow-water basins mainly driven by semi-diurnal tidal currents.     

Study of fluxing in Al refining process by rotary and crucible furnaces

The process used to obtain recycled Al alloys depends on the scrap quality. Rotary furnaces are normally used in Europe as they allow a great productivity and they can process low quality scrap using a salt flux to protect the molten metal from oxidation. In this article, the effect of the quantity of salt on the metal recovery has been experimentally investigated by melting several types of scrap under a mixture of NaCl–KCl–Na₃AlF₆ salts. The quantity of salt has been related to the salt factor (SF), which is the ratio between the non-metallic content in the scrap and the quantity of salt required. The same levels of salt factor have been tested by melting the scrap in rotary and crucible furnaces. The metal recovery increases with the salt content for both furnaces. The results obtained with the different melting processes are comparable because the yield difference is similar considering different salt factors. Crucible furnace gives greater metal recovery but it cannot replace rotary furnace in Al refining industry due to lower melting capacity. However, the results highlight that the optimisation of the Al refining process can be supported by preliminary tests through crucible furnaces reducing the time and material consumptions.     

Biological effects of ammonia released from a composting plant assessed with lichens

In this study, we investigated whether ammonia emissions from industrial composting of organic waste may influence the surrounding environment, using lichens as bioindicators. To this purpose, samples of N-tolerant and N-sensitive lichens, namely Xanthoria parietina and Evernia prunastri, were transplanted for 1–3 months along transects at increasing distance (0–400 m) from a composting facility in Tuscany, Italy. Atmospheric concentrations of ammonia were measured using passive samplers. The physiological response of lichen transplants was investigated by means of the photosynthetic efficiency (measured as chlorophyll a fluorescence emission), the integrity of cell membranes (measured as electrolyte leakage), and sample viability (measured as enzymatic activity of dehydrogenase). Epiphytic lichen communities were investigated using biodiversity indices. The results showed decreasing concentrations of ammonia, from 48.7 μg/m³ at the composting facility to 2.7 μg/m³ at 400 m. The N-tolerant X. parietina was not affected and some physiological parameters even showed a higher performance, while the N-sensitive E. prunastri showed a reduced performance with increasing atmospheric concentrations approaching the source. A shift from lichen communities composed by meso-acidophilous species (actual condition) to more nitrophilous communities in the near future, approaching the composting facility is suggested. It is concluded that lichens can provide useful data for decision-makers to establish correct science-based environmentally sustainable waste management policies.     

21,000 Years of Ethiopian African monsoon variability recorded in sediments of the western Nile deep-sea fan

The Nile delta sedimentation constitutes a continuous high-resolution record of Ethiopian African monsoon (EAM) regime intensity. Multi-proxy analyses performed on hemipelagic sediments deposited on the Nile deep-sea fan allow the quantification of the Saharan aeolian dust and the Blue/White Nile River suspended matter frequency fluctuations during the last 21,000 years. The radiogenic strontium and neodymium isotopes, clay mineralogy, elemental composition and preliminary palynological analyses reveal large changes in source components, oscillating between a dominant aeolian Saharan contribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the late Holocene (~4,000–2,000 years), a dominant Blue/Atbara Nile River contribution during the early Holocene (15,000–8,000 years) and a probable White Nile River contribution during the middle Holocene (8,000–4,000 years). The following main features are highlighted: (1) The rapid shift from the LGM arid conditions to the African Humid Period (AHP) started at about 15,000 years. The AHP extends until 8,000 years, and we suggest that the EAM maximum between 15,000 and 8,000 years is responsible for a larger Blue/Atbara Nile sediment load and freshwater input into the eastern Mediterranean Sea. (2) The transition between the AHP and the arid late Holocene is gradual and occurs in two main phases between 8,400–6,500 years and 6,500–3,200 years. We suggest that the main rain belt shifted southward from 8,000 to ~4,000 years and was responsible for progressively reduced sediment load and freshwater input into the eastern Mediterranean Sea. (3) The aridification along the Nile catchments occurred from ~4,000 to 2,000 years. This dry period, which culminates at 3,200 year, seems to coincide with a re-establishment of increased oceanic primary productivity in the western Mediterranean Sea. Such a pattern imposes a large and rapid northward shift of the rain belt over the Ethiopian highlands (5–15°N) since 15,000 years. Precipitation over Ethiopia increased from 15,000 to 8,000 years. It was followed by a gradual southward shift of the rain belt over the equator from 8,000 to 4,000 years and finally a large shift of the rain belt south the equator between 4,000 and 2,000 years inducing North African aridification. We postulate that the decrease in thermohaline water Mediterranean circulation could be part of a response to huge volumes of freshwater delivered principally by the Nile River from 15,000 to 8,000 years in the eastern Mediterranean.     

Challenges in assessing the environmental consequences of dietary changes

Tom et al. (Environ Syst Decis 1–12, 2015) compared the energy requirements, water footprint, and greenhouse gas emissions of diet regimens recently recommended by the US Department of Agriculture. This editorial comments on a number of challenges related to the use of the results of life-cycle assessment studies to quantify the environmental impacts of dietary shifts.     

Influence of angular exposure and proximity to vehicular traffic on the diversity of epiphytic lichens and the bioaccumulation of traffic-related elements

This study investigated the influence of angular exposure and distance from vehicular traffic on the diversity of epiphytic lichens and the bioaccumulation of traffic-related elements in a town of central Italy. An Index of Lichen Diversity (ILD) was calculated on the street-facing and the opposite side of road-lining trees and in a urban park 250 m away, and the content of selected trace elements (Al, Ba, Ce, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, V, and Zn) was determined in samples of the lichen Punctelia borreri (Sm.) Krog growing on tree bark, both on the exposed and opposite sides. ILD increases with distance from traffic emissions. However, at the site with vehicle traffic, non-nitrophilous lichens decreased while nitrophilous ones increased. The concentration of the traffic-related elements Ba, Cr, Cu, Mn, Sb, and Zn accumulated in thalli of P. borreri was higher on roadside trees than in trees from the urban park. ILD was not affected by the angular exposure to the road and the bioaccumulation of traffic-related elements was similar in lichens from the side of the bole exposed to traffic emissions and particulate resuspension and from the opposite side. The angular exposure in respect to the traffic source does not influence trace element accumulation. These results are important when using lichens for biomonitoring purposes, both for planning future studies and for the reliability of the interpretation of past surveys that do not report information about the angular exposure of the collected lichen material.     

Monitoring H2S air pollution caused by the industrial exploitation of geothermal energy: The pitfall of using lichens as bioindicators

This study showed that NH₃ emitted from geothermal power plants affects the surrounding epiphytic lichen vegetation and diversity, confounding the interpretation of lichen diversity counts in terms of air pollution by H₂S. The presence of nitrophytic lichen species around geothermal installations, determined by NH₃, caused relatively high diversity values that were not related with the levels of air pollution by H₂S. It is recommended that in the presence of NH₃ emission, nitrophytic species are excluded from the calculation of lichen diversity values.