Fuzzy logic and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for characterization of contaminant exposure through selected biomarkers in African catfish

This study represents a first attempt at applying a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to the field of aquatic biomonitoring for classification of the dosage and time of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) injection through selected biomarkers in African catfish (Clarias gariepinus). Fish were injected either intramuscularly (i.m.) or intraperitoneally (i.p.) with BaP. Hepatic glutathione S-transferase (GST) activities, relative visceral fat weights (LSI), and four biliary fluorescent aromatic compounds (FACs) concentrations were used as the inputs in the modeling study. Contradictory rules in FIS and ANFIS models appeared after conversion of bioassay results into human language (rule-based system). A “data trimming” approach was proposed to eliminate the conflicts prior to fuzzification. However, the model produced was relevant only to relatively low exposures to BaP, especially through the i.m. route of exposure. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was unable to raise the classification rate to an acceptable level. In conclusion, FIS and ANFIS models have limited applications in the field of fish biomarker studies.     

On the preconditions for large-scale collective action

Ambio - The phenomenon of collective action and the origin of collective action problems have been extensively and systematically studied in the social sciences. Yet, while we have substantial...     

Vorschl?ge zur Charakterisierung und quantifizierung pfadübergreifender Schadstoffexpositionen

Zusammenfassung  Um zu einer sachgerechten und nachvollziehbar quantifizierbaren Beurteilung der m?glichen Gesundheitsbelastungen des Menschen durch Schadstoffe zu gelangen, ist es von grundlegender Bedeutung dessen ?u?ere Schadstoffexposition absch?tzen zu k?nnen. Um die Durchführung derartiger Absch?tzungen zu erm?glichen, werden nutzergruppen- und expositionsszenariospezifisch orale, inhalative und dermale Aufnahmeraten für die Kontaktmedien Boden, Pflanzen aus Haus- und Schreberg?rten, Trinkwasser, Staub, Hausstaub und Innenraumluft vorgeschlagen. Diese Aufnahmeraten dienen, gemeinsam mit gemessenen oder berechneten Schadstoffkonzentrationen in den entsprechenden Kontaktmedien, zur Absch?tzung der von Menschen aufgenommenen Schadstoffdosen und erm?glichen durch einen Vergleich mit tolerierbaren Schadstoffdosen eine stoff-, nutzungs- und standortbezogene Beurteilung von Schadstoffexpositionen, auch für komplexe Nutzungen.      

Oil price scenarios and climate policy: welfare effects of including transportation in the EU emissions trading system

The stringency of policies needed to meet a climate target is influenced by uncertain oil prices because price changes cause emission changes, making the robustness of climate policy instruments important. As a result of its dependence on oil, emissions from the transport sector are particularly sensitive to oil price changes. We use a computable general equilibrium model to study the effects of including the transport sector in the EU??s emissions trading scheme under three future oil price scenarios. Our results show that there are potentially significant welfare gains from including transportation in the emissions trading scheme because the system as a whole helps absorb required changes in climate policy to meet the overall EU cap on emissions. There is, however, a cost in terms of somewhat greater permit price uncertainty.     

Raumbezug und Repräsentativität in der Ökologischen Flächenstichprobe

The quality of regionalizations can only be evaluated with regard to its specific purposes. In environmental monitoring, regionalizations, besides being an analysis tool, has a great importance on the selection of monitoring sites. The article describes the relationship between regionalization, selection procedure and representativeness using the example of Ecological Area Sampling (EAS) and presents the regionalization which was tested in an EAS pilot study.     

How to assess exposure of aquatic organisms to manufactured nanoparticles?

Ecological risk of chemicals is measured by the quotient of predicted no-effect concentrations and predicted exposure concentrations, which are hard to assess for manufactured nanomaterials (NMs). This paper proposes modifications to currently used models, in order to make them suitable for estimating exposure concentrations of NMs in the aquatic environment. We have evaluated the adequacy of the current guidance documents for use with NMs and conclude that nano-specific fate processes, such as sedimentation and dissolution need to be incorporated. We have reviewed the literature on sedimentation and dissolution of NMs in environmentally relevant systems. We deduce that the overall kinetics of water-sediment transport of NMs should be close to first order. The lack of data on dissolution of NMs under environmentally realistic conditions calls for a pragmatic decision on which rates to be used in modeling. We find that first order removal kinetics for dissolution seems adequate. Based on limited data from literature, probable removal rates range from 0 to 10(-4)s(-1) for sedimentation, and from 0 to 10(-5)s(-1) for dissolution. Further experimental data at environmentally relevant conditions for sedimentation and dissolution of NMs is needed.     

Reconnecting to the Biosphere

Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere, with a significant imprint on the Earth System, challenging social-ecological resilience. This new situation calls for a fundamental shift in perspectives, world views, and institutions. Human development and progress must be reconnected to the capacity of the biosphere and essential ecosystem services to be sustained. Governance challenges include a highly interconnected and faster world, cascading social-ecological interactions and planetary boundaries that create vulnerabilities but also opportunities for social-ecological change and transformation. Tipping points and thresholds highlight the importance of understanding and managing resilience. New modes of flexible governance are emerging. A central challenge is to reconnect these efforts to the changing preconditions for societal development as active stewards of the Earth System. We suggest that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability. The ongoing mind shift in human relations with Earth and its boundaries provides exciting opportunities for societal development in collaboration with the biosphere--a global sustainability agenda for humanity.     

Sustainability or collapse: what can we learn from integrating the history of humans and the rest of nature?

Understanding the history of how humans have interacted with the rest of nature can help clarify the options for managing our increasingly interconnected global system. Simple, deterministic relationships between environmental stress and social change are inadequate. Extreme drought, for instance, triggered both social collapse and ingenious management of water through irrigation. Human responses to change, in turn, feed into climate and ecological systems, producing a complex web of multidirectional connections in time and space. Integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleoenvironmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. But, if we can adequately understand the past, we can use that understanding to influence our decisions and to create a better, more sustainable and desirable future.