The New England Air Quality Forecasting Pilot Program: Development of an Evaluation Protocol and Performance Benchmark

Abstract

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a “test bed” for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implementation of an evaluation protocol. This Pilot Program enlisted three regional-scale air quality models, serving as prototypes, to forecast ozone (O₃) concentrations across the northeastern United States during the summer of 2002. A suite of statistical metrics was identified as part of the protocol that facilitated evaluation of both discrete forecasts (observed versus modeled concentrations) and categorical forecasts (observed versus modeled exceedances/nonexceedances) for both the maximum 1-hr (125 ppb) and 8-hr (85 ppb) forecasts produced by each of the models. Implementation of the evaluation protocol took place during a 25-day period (August 5–29), utilizing hourly O₃ concentration data obtained from over 450 monitors from the U.S. Environment Protection Agency’s Air Quality System network.     

A PRACTICAL GUIDE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WETLAND ASSESSMENT METHOD: THE CALIFORNIA EXPERIENCE1

Wetland rapid assessment methods (RAMs) can provide a cost effective, scientifically defensible estimate of wetland and riparian condition for use in ambient and project monitoring in resource management and regulatory programs. Those who have chosen to develop a RAM to assess wetland and riparian condition are faced with a range of issues and important choices that they must make throughout the development process. This paper is intended as a practical guide to RAM development. Six basic stages in the RAM development process are discussed: (1) organize RAM development by identifying the intended applications, assessment endpoints, and geographic scope of the RAM and forming appropriate teams to advise and review the development process and its products; (2) build a scientific foundation for method development by conducting a literature review, choosing a wetland classification system, building conceptual models, and identifying the major assumptions underlying the model; (3) assemble the method as a system of attributes and metrics that describe a full range of conditions; (4) verify the ability of the method to distinguish between wetlands along a continuum of conditions; (5) calibrate and validate the method against sets of quantitative data representing more intensive measures of wetland condition; and (6) implement the method through outreach and training of the intended users. Important considerations within each of these stages lead to choices in accuracy, precision, robustness, ease of use, and cost. These are identified and the tradeoffs of the various options discussed. Experience with the ongoing development and implementation of the California Rapid Assessment Method (CRAM) is used to illustrate these stages and associated choices in RAM development.     

Optimization of a monitoring network for sulfur dioxide

In this study, we develop and apply a methodology to reduce an existing monitoring network to find an optimal configuration of a smaller network. We use a criterion based on locally weighted regression with two different weight functions. The methodology is applied to the Dutch national SO2 network and offers the possibility to include different politically relevant options in the model by weight criteria. Because full enumeration of all monitoring networks is impossible, a combinatorial search algorithm is applied to find a (sub)optimal solution. If different (optimal) monitoring networks result from different criteria, then the best can be selected.     

Seabed resources and international law

This article outlines the problems related to the exploitation and allocation of undersea resources. The nature and accessibility of undersea petroleum supplies and metalliferous nodules are described in terms of the existing and prospective future economic constraints. Since the majority of such resources lie outside national jurisdictions, their ownership has recently become a major source of international conflict. The character of that conflict is explained, and the prospective solutions under international law are identified. Unilateral action on the part of countries possessing the requisite technologies to exploit these resources is viewed as the most probable near-term outlook, even though it may not satisfy very many aspects of international equity.     

Exposure of Marine Mammals to Genotoxic Environmental Contaminants: Application of the 32P-Postlabeling Assay for Measuring DNA-Xenobiotic Adducts♯

There is little information on exposure of marine mammals to genotoxic environmental contaminants. The 32P-postlabeling assay has been successfully used to assess exposure to genotoxic polycyclic aromatic compounds in fish and humans. In the present study, a preliminary investigation showed that polycyclic aromatic compound-like DNA adducts were present in hepatic tissues of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardsi) exposed to petroleum following the Exxon Valdez oil spill. However, for marine mammals, effects from changes in tissue condition on DNA recovery and quality is of concern, because tissue samples are often collected from animals that have been dead for unknown periods of time. To assess the effects of postmortem thermal history on DNA recovery from tissue and on DNA adduct quantitation, samples of harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) hepatic tissue were incubated for up to 10 d at 4 and 30 °C. Only traces (<4 g) of hepatic DNA were recovered from 200 mg of tissue after incubation at 30 °C for 36 h. At 4 °C, DNA (50–130 g) was recovered from tissue incubated for up to 6 d; whereas DNA recovery at 10 d was minimal. Chromatograms of 32P-labeled DNA digests of liver tissue held at 4 and 30 °C and salmon sperm DNA held at 30 °C for 2 d had comparable profiles, suggesting that alteration of DNA bases had occurred during incubation of porpoise liver tissue. Moreover, the chromatograms of DNA extracted from liver tissues of harbor porpoises caught incidentally in a northwest Atlantic fishery, packed in ice and sampled several days later also exhibited similar altered DNA structures. Although, altered DNA structures that can interfere with the DNA adduct quantitation were present in autolyzed tissue, changes in the 32P-postlabeling chromatography conditions can decrease the interference. Moreover, in a study with tissues taken from California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) immediately postmortem and stored at –80 °C until processing, DNA structures associated with tissue breakdown were not observed. The DNA from sea lions, however, had putative age-dependent hepatic DNA modifications, which have a distinctive profile, and must be considered when evaluating exposure of marine mammals to polycyclic aromatic compounds. Overall, the findings showed that with attention to the postmortem thermal history of the tissue samples hepatic DNA adducts, as measured by 32P-postlabeling, have the potential to serve as a biological indicator of exposure of marine mammals to environmental genotoxic compounds.     

Analyzing spatial count data,with an application to weed counts

Count data on a lattice may arise in observational studies of ecological phenomena. In this paper a hierarchical spatial model is used to analyze weed counts. Anisotropy is introduced, and a bivariate extension of the model is presented.     

Role of heavy polar organic compounds for water repellency of sandy soils

Separation and chemical characterisation of specific compounds responsible for soil water repellency has not previously been achieved. Here we describe the extraction, separation and analysis by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry of organic compounds found in wettable and water repellent sandy soils from the Netherlands and United Kingdom. Fatty acids (C₁₆–C₂₄), amides (C₁₄–C₂₄), alkanes (C₂₅–C₃₃), aldehydes/ketones (C₂₃–C₃₁) and complex ring-containing structures were detected in all samples. We found a greater abundance of high molecular mass polar compounds in the water repellent samples.     

A hybrid modeling approach to resolve pollutant concentrations in an urban area

A modeling tool that can resolve contributions from individual sources to the urban environment is critical for air-toxics exposure assessments. Air toxics are often chemically reactive and may have background concentrations originated from distant sources. Grid models are the best-suited tools to handle the regional features of these chemicals. However, these models are not designed to resolve pollutant concentrations on local scales. Moreover, for many species of interest, having reaction time scales that are longer than the travel time across an urban area, chemical reactions can be ignored in describing local dispersion from strong individual sources making Lagrangian and plume-dispersion models practical. In this study, we test the feasibility of developing an urban hybrid simulation system. In this combination, the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) provides the regional background concentrations and urban-scale photochemistry, and local models such as Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) and AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) provide the more spatially resolved concentrations due to local emission sources. In the initial application, the HYSPLIT, AERMOD, and CMAQ models are used in combination to calculate high-resolution benzene concentrations in the Houston area. The study period is from 18 August to 4 September of 2000. The Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) is used to create meteorological fields with a horizontal resolution of 1×1 km². In another variation to this approach, multiple HYSPLIT simulations are used to create a concentration ensemble to estimate the contribution to the concentration variability from point sources. HYSPLIT simulations are used to model two sources of concentration variability; one due to variability created by different particle trajectory pathways in the turbulent atmosphere and the other due to different flow regimes that might be introduced when using gridded data to represent meteorological data fields. The ensemble mean concentrations determined by HYSPLIT plus the concentrations estimated by AERMOD are added to the CMAQ calculated background to estimate the total mean benzene concentration. These estimated hourly mean concentrations are also compared with available field measurements.