Spatial sampling for a rabies vaccination schedule in rural villages

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Efforts are being made to contain rabies in Tanzania, reported in the southern highland regions, since 1954, and endemic in all districts in Tanzania...     

The New England Air Quality Forecasting Pilot Program: Development of an Evaluation Protocol and Performance Benchmark

Abstract

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a “test bed” for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implementation of an evaluation protocol. This Pilot Program enlisted three regional-scale air quality models, serving as prototypes, to forecast ozone (O₃) concentrations across the northeastern United States during the summer of 2002. A suite of statistical metrics was identified as part of the protocol that facilitated evaluation of both discrete forecasts (observed versus modeled concentrations) and categorical forecasts (observed versus modeled exceedances/nonexceedances) for both the maximum 1-hr (125 ppb) and 8-hr (85 ppb) forecasts produced by each of the models. Implementation of the evaluation protocol took place during a 25-day period (August 5–29), utilizing hourly O₃ concentration data obtained from over 450 monitors from the U.S. Environment Protection Agency’s Air Quality System network.     

Pre- and post-fire pollutant loads in an urban fringe watershed in Southern California

Post-fire runoff has the potential to be a large source of contaminants to downstream areas. However, the magnitude of this effect in urban fringe watersheds adjacent to large sources of airborne contaminants is not well documented. The current study investigates the impacts of wildfire on stormwater contaminant loading from the upper Arroyo Seco watershed, burned in 2009. This watershed is adjacent to the Greater Los Angeles, CA, USA area and has not burned in over 60 years. Consequently, it acts as a sink for regional urban pollutants and presents an opportunity to study the impacts of wildfire. Pre- and post-fire storm samples were collected and analyzed for basic cations, trace metals, and total suspended solids. The loss of vegetation and changes in soil properties from the fire greatly increased the magnitude of storm runoff, resulting in sediment-laden floods carrying high concentrations of particulate-bound constituents. Post-fire concentrations and loads were up to three orders of magnitude greater than pre-fire values for many trace metals, including lead and cadmium. A shift was also observed in the timing of chemical delivery, where maximum suspended sediment, trace metal, and cation concentrations coincided with, rather than preceded, peak discharge in the post-fire runoff, amplifying the fire’s impacts on mass loading. The results emphasize the importance of sediment delivery as a primary mechanism for post-fire contaminant transport and suggest that traditional management practices that focus on treating only the early portion of storm runoff may be less effective following wildfire. We also advocate that watersheds impacted by regional urban pollutants have the potential to pose significant risk for downstream communities and ecosystems after fire.     

Stochastic landslide vulnerability modeling in space and time in a part of the northern Himalayas, India

Little is known about the quantitative vulnerability analysis to landslides as not many attempts have been made to assess it comprehensively. This study assesses the spatio-temporal vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides in a stochastic framework. The study includes buildings, persons inside buildings, and traffic as elements at risk to landslides. Building vulnerability is the expected damage and depends on the position of a building with respect to the landslide hazard at a given time. Population and vehicle vulnerability are the expected death toll in a building and vehicle damage in space and time respectively. The study was carried out in a road corridor in the Indian Himalayas that is highly susceptible to landslides. Results showed that 26% of the buildings fall in the high and very high vulnerability categories. Population vulnerability inside buildings showed a value >0.75 during 0800 to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours in more buildings that other times of the day. It was also observed in the study region that the vulnerability of vehicle is above 0.6 in half of the road stretches during 0800 hours to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours due to high traffic density on the road section. From this study, we conclude that the vulnerability of an element at risk to landslide is a space and time event, and can be quantified using stochastic modeling. Therefore, the stochastic vulnerability modeling forms the basis for a quantitative landslide risk analysis and assessment.     

Simulation and Evaluation of Control Strategies for Ozone Reduction in a Complex Terrain in Southwestern Spain

During the central months of the year, southwestern Spain is under strong insolation and weak synoptic forcing, promoting the development of sea breezes and mountain-induced winds and creating recirculations of pollutants. The complex topography of the Southwestern Iberia Peninsula induces the formation of vertical layers, into which the pollutants are injected and subjected to long-distance transport and compensatory subsidence. The characteristics of these highly complex flows have important effects on the pollutant dispersion. Air pollution studies in very complex terrains require high-resolution modelling for resolving the flow dynamics. This paper shows the results obtained from using the MM5-CAMx multiscale-nested air quality model to relate the sensitivity regimes for ozone, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds in an area of high geographical complexity. The article assesses the impact on the hourly and eight-hourly maximum daily ozone concentrations of four reduction strategies during two ozone pollution episodes. This analysis of the ozone response has led to a preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness of the most common control strategies: traffic, industry, mixed traffic and industry, and closure of some of the largest industries (oil and petrochemical refineries). Photochemical indicators show that ozone chemistry in southwestern Spain is strongly sensitive to NO _x . However, volatile organic compound-sensitive points are found in areas with anthropogenic influence (highways, cities and industrial parks). Our results indicate that reductions in road traffic lead to ozone reductions over large areas, whereas reductions in industrial emissions, despite sometimes showing greater decreases in the maximum hourly and eight-hourly ground-level ozone levels, lead to ozone reductions in a local area only. In the control study case, with the oil refinery and the petrochemical plants closed, decreases in ozone hourly concentrations are up to 40% higher than in the other emission control scenarios studied. This analysis provides an assessment of the effectiveness of different policies for controlling precursor emissions by comparing the modelled results for different scenarios.     

Maintenance-related major accidents: Classification of causes and case study

The potential for major accidents is inherent in most industries that handle or store hazardous substances, for e.g. the hydrocarbon and chemical process industries. Several major accidents have been experienced over the past three decades. Flixborough Disaster (1974), Seveso Disaster (1976), Alexander Kielland Disaster (1980), Bhopal Gas Tragedy (1984), Sandoz Chemical Spill (1986), Piper Alpha Disaster (1988), Philips 66 Disaster (1989), Esso Longford Gas Explosion (1998), Texas City Refinery Explosion (2005), and most recently the Macondo Blowout (2010) are a few examples of accidents with devastating consequences.Causes are being exposed over time, but in recent years maintenance influence tends to be given less attention. However, given that some major accidents are maintenance-related, we intend to concentrate on classifying them to give a better insight into the underlying and contributing causes.High degree of technological and organizational complexity are attributes of these industries, and in order to control the risk, it is common to deploy multiple and independent safety barriers whose integrity cannot be maintained without adequate level of maintenance. However, maintenance may have a negative effect on barrier performance if the execution is incorrect, insufficient, delayed, or excessive. Maintenance can also be the triggering event.The objectives of this article are: (1) To investigate how maintenance impacts the occurrence of major accidents, and (2) To develop classification schemes for causes of maintenance-related major accidents.The paper builds primarily on model-based and empirical approaches, the latter being applied to reports on accident investigation and analysis. Based on this, the Work and Accident Process (WAP) classification scheme was proposed in the paper.     

Channel Evolution Model of Semiarid Stream Response to Urban‐Induced Hydromodification1

Hawley, Robert J., Brian P. Bledsoe, Eric D. Stein, and Brian E. Haines, 2012. Channel Evolution Model of Semiarid Stream Response to Urban‐Induced Hydromodification. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 722‐744. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00645.x Abstract: We present a novel channel evolution model (CEM) that qualitatively describes morphologic responses of semiarid channels to altered hydrologic and sediment regimes associated with urbanization (hydromodification). The CEM is based on southern California data from 83 detailed channel surveys, hundreds of synoptic surveys, and historical analyses of aerial photographs along 14 reaches. Channel evolution sometimes follows the well‐known sequence described by Schumm et al. (Incised Channels: Morphology, Dynamics, and Control, Water Resources Publications, Littleton, Colorado, 1984) for incising, single‐thread channels; however, departures from this sequence are common and include transitions of single thread to braided evolutionary endpoints, as opposed to a return to quasi‐equilibrium single‐thread planform. Thresholds and risk factors associated with observed channel response are also presented. In particular, distance to grade control and network position emerged as key controls on channel response trajectory. The CEM and quantitative extensions provide managers with a framework for understanding channel responses and rehabilitation alternatives, and may be transferable to other semiarid settings. It also offers insights regarding channel susceptibility to hydromodification, highlights key boundary conditions for high‐risk channels, and underscores critical knowledge gaps in predicting the complex, discontinuous response trajectories that are highly prevalent in urbanized watersheds.