The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.     

Queen number and the production of sexuals in the fire ant,Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Summary To investigate the possibility of queen control over the production of sexuals in polygyne colonies of the fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, large colonies were divided into polygyne (P) and monogyne (M) or queenless (Q-) halves. Sexual larvae were evident in the M and Q- halves 3 to 4 days after colony division, whereas sexual forms failed to develop in all but one of the 32 P halves examined. Both male and female sexuals were produced in abundance in all M (n=25) and Q- (n=7) halves. Evidently, individuals capable of sexualization are present in colonies with many functional queens but are normally prevented from developing. Electrophoretic and morphometric analyses indicated that both haploid and diploid males were produced in the Q- halves, although diploids far outnumbered haploids. It thus appears that queens exert control over all potential and genetically determined sexuals regardless of sex or ploidy. The timing of the appearance of sexual forms following colony division suggests that queen control may be pheromonally mediated and inhibits the growth of sexuals late in larval development. An experiment in which the queens from M and P halves of colonies were exchanged demonstrated the reversible nature of this inhibition within colonies, but also suggested that once individual larvae develop beyond a critical point they are no longer subject to queen control. Despite seasonal variation in the production of sexuals in the field, no substantial differences between colonies collected in the summer and fall were found in their response to colony manipulations. The interaction of colony weight and number of queens present prior to colony division was associated with the number of males produced in the Q- halves, but no factors examined were associated with the number of females produced in these halves, or with the number of males or females produced in the M halves.     

Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.     

Desirable design characteristics for long-term monitoring of ecological variables

Long-term environmental monitoring places a set of demands on a sampling strategy not present in a survey designed for a single time period. The inevitability that a sample will become out of date must be a dominant consideration in planning a long-term monitoring programme. The sampling strategy must be able to accommodate periodic frame update and sample restructuring in order to address changes in the composition of the universe and changes in the perception of issues leading to new questions and concerns. The sampling strategy must be capable of adapting to such changes while maintaining its identification as a probability sample and its capacity to detect trends that span the update occasions. These issues are examined with respect to sub-population estimation, post-stratification via conditioning, and sample enlargement and reduction. Design features that involve complex sample structure create potentially serious difficulties, whereas an equal probability design permits greater adaptability and flexibility. Structure should be employed sparingly and in awareness of its undesirable effects.     

Plasma levels of androgens and gonadal development of breeders and helpers in the bell miner (Manorina melanophrys)

Plasma concentration of androgens and gonad development were studied in wild cooperatively breeding bell miners (Manorina melanophrys) of different age, sex and social status. Plasma levels of androgens increased with age of birds. For sexually mature (SM) bell miners, androgen levels were higher in breeders than in nonbreeding (NB) helpers (P < 0.005), and they were marginally higher in females than in males (P < 0.10). Thus female breeders showed the highest plasma levels of androgens. This pattern may be explained by an asymmetry between the sexes in the levels of competition needed to reach and defend breeding status; the degree of intra-sexual competition seems to be higher among female bell miners than among males. In general, male breeders had larger gonads than male SMNB helpers; male breeder gonads produced spermatozoa whereas most helpers' gonads did not. However, old (i.e. 34 months) SMNB male helpers had large gonads producing spermatozoa in spite of having low plasma levels of androgens. We suggest that young male bell miners may be under a voluntary mechanism of reproductive suppression perhaps favoured by inbreeding avoidance; although some aggressive interactions observed between very young helpers (about 2 months) and adult members of the breeding unit suggests that a certain degree of imposition also occurs at young ages. Older male helpers may avoid aggression with the male breeder and imposed reproductive suppression, hence the low circulating levels of androgens, but they have the potential to sneak extra-pair copulations. Gonad size decreased during the non-breeding season in both sexes.     

Extraction capacity and the optimal order of extraction

The least-cost-first extraction rule for deposits with different extraction costs previously has been shown to be invalid in general equilibrium. This paper demonstrates that this rule also does not hold in partial equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited. Necessary and sufficient conditions for several surprising extraction orders are presented. If extraction from a high-cost resource is constrained, it may be optimal to begin extraction from a high-cost deposit (or backstop) strictly before extracting from a lower-cost deposit. If extraction from a low-cost resource is limited, it may be optimal to exhaust a high-cost deposit strictly before the low-cost deposit is exhausted or to abandon extraction temporarily from a high-cost deposit and then to exhaust it later. The analysis demonstrates how extraction constraints affect the order of extraction and shows that certain cost reversals are caused by limited extraction capacity rather than by the general equilibrium definition of extraction costs.     

Set-up costs and the existence of competitive equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited

Although set-up costs are prevalent and substantial in natural resource extraction, it is known that a Walrasian competitive equilibrium cannot exist in simple extraction models with set-up costs. This paper demonstrates that this result is sensitive to the assumption of unlimited extraction capacity and derives sufficient conditions for existence. An equilibrium exists if extraction is limited such that each firm earns sufficient surplus to cover its set-up costs or if firms choose extraction capacity subject to non-increasing returns. The resulting competitive equilibrium price either grows at the rate of interest when total extraction is below industry capacity or is constant when industry capacity is fully utilized. In the equilibrium, identical deposits are opened simultaneously, and set-up costs for new deposits are incurred when the industry has excess capacity rather than when capacity is fully utilized.     

Comparison of distribution function estimators for forestry applications following variable probability sampling

Practical considerations often motivate employing variable probability sampling designs when estimating characteristics of forest populations. Three distribution function estimators, the Horvitz-Thompson estimator, a difference estimator, and a ratio estimator, are compared following variable probability sampling in which the inclusion probabilities are proportional to an auxiliary variable, X. Relative performance of the estimators is affected by several factors, including the distribution of the inclusion probabilities, the correlation () between X and the response Y, and the position along the distribution function being estimated. Both the ratio and difference estimators are superior to the Horvitz-Thompson estimator. The difference estimator gains better precision than the ratio estimator toward the upper portion of the distribution function, but the ratio estimator is superior toward the lower end of the distribution function. The point along the distribution function at which the difference estimator becomes more precise than the ratio estimator depends on the sampling design, as well as the coefficient of variation of X and . A simple confidence interval procedure provides close to nominal coverage for intervals constructed from both the difference and ratio estimators, with the exception that coverage may be poor for the lower tail of the distribution function when using the ratio estimator.