Responses of pond-breeding amphibians to wildfire: short-term patterns in occupancy and colonization.

Wildland fires are expected to become more frequent and severe in many ecosystems, potentially posing a threat to many sensitive species. We evaluated the effects of a large, stand-replacement wildfire on three species of pond-breeding amphibians by estimating changes in occupancy of breeding sites during the three years before and after the fire burned 42 of 83 previously surveyed wetlands. Annual occupancy and colonization for each species was estimated using recently developed models that incorporate detection probabilities to provide unbiased parameter estimates. We did not find negative effects of the fire on the occupancy or colonization rates of the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum). Instead, its occupancy was higher across the study area after the fire, possibly in response to a large snowpack that may have facilitated colonization of unoccupied wetlands. Naive data (uncorrected for detection probability) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) initially led to the conclusion of increased occupancy and colonization in wetlands that burned. After accounting for temporal and spatial variation in detection probabilities, however, it was evident that these parameters were relatively stable in both areas before and after the fire. We found a similar discrepancy between naive and estimated occupancy of A. macrodactylum that resulted from different detection probabilities in burned and control wetlands. The boreal toad (Bufo boreas) was not found breeding in the area prior to the fire but colonized several wetlands the year after they burned. Occupancy by B. boreas then declined during years 2 and 3 following the fire. Our study suggests that the amphibian populations we studied are resistant to wildfire and that B. boreas may experience short-term benefits from wildfire. Our data also illustrate how naive presence-non-detection data can provide misleading results.     

Effects of Ecotourism on Distribution of Waterbirds in a Wildlife Refuge

Humans visiting natural areas often disturb wildlife, possibly displacing animals from desirable habitat. To hold ecotourism at acceptable levels refuge managers need to know which species are likely to be affected and which response occurs at different levels of disturbance. Displacement of waterbirds at J. N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge, Florida (U.S.A.), by specific human activities was demonstrated experimentally by Klein in 1993. We assessed the extent of this effect of ecotourism on the distribution of 38 species of waterbirds by surveying birds in plots of known distance from a dike along which wildlife tours occurred. Most resident species were less sensitive to disturbance than were migrants. Migrant ducks were most sensitive when they first arrived, mid-October to mid-December, usually remaining more than 80 m from the drive, even at low levels of human visitation. Herons, egrets. Brown Pelicans ( Pelecanus occidentalis ), and Anhingas ( Anhinga anhinga ) were most likely to remain close to areas of high human activity. Shorebirds were displaced at intermediate distance and visitation levels. Mottled Ducks ( Anas fulvigula ) and several of the ardeids seemed to include two groups differing in behavior, one habituated to humans and one sensitive to disturbance. Public education and changes in management practices are needed to reduce disturbance. Guided tours and low-disturbance zones where people stay in their cars could reduce the negative effects of tourists, especially in the fall when migrants arrive. The number of human visitors may have to be reduced or the wildlife drive closed on certain days during the tourist season.     

Extra-pair paternity and the opportunity for sexual selection in a socially monogamous bird (Dendroica petechia)

We used multi-locus DNA fingerprinting to characterise the genetic mating system of the socially monogamous yellow warbler (Dendroica petechia). Over 2 years there were no instances of brood parasitism, but 59% of families (n = 90) contained extrapair sired young and 37% of offspring (n = 355) were of extra-pair paternity. Most hypotheses for extra-pair mating in monogamous species assume a paternity benefit to extra-pair sires, and focus on the benefit(s) to females. However, the assumption of male benefit has been little tested. Among yellow warblers, known extra-pair sires were just as likely to be cuckolded as any male in the population, and there was at least one reciprocal exchange of extra-pair paternity. Nevertheless, among known extra-pair sires, the paternity gains from extra-pair paternity were, on average, greater than the losses in their own families. These results show there is a paternity benefit to certain males. However, the benefit is not absolute but relative and therefore more difficult to measure. The results also suggest that patterns of extra-pair fertilisation are not determined by female choice alone. Most confirmed extra-pair mates were territorial neighbours, but some resided as far as three territories apart, and greater spatial separation was implied in other cases. Thus, the opportunity for extra-pair mating is great. We estimate that as a result of extra-pair fertilisations, variance in male mating success is increased somewhere between 3-fold and 15-fold over that which would result from within-pair reproduction alone. These findings affirm the potential importance of extra-pair reproduction for sexual selection in monogamous species and they support earlier suggestions that extra-territorial forays by male yellow warblers are for the purpose of extra-pair mating.     

The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.     

Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.     

Desirable design characteristics for long-term monitoring of ecological variables

Long-term environmental monitoring places a set of demands on a sampling strategy not present in a survey designed for a single time period. The inevitability that a sample will become out of date must be a dominant consideration in planning a long-term monitoring programme. The sampling strategy must be able to accommodate periodic frame update and sample restructuring in order to address changes in the composition of the universe and changes in the perception of issues leading to new questions and concerns. The sampling strategy must be capable of adapting to such changes while maintaining its identification as a probability sample and its capacity to detect trends that span the update occasions. These issues are examined with respect to sub-population estimation, post-stratification via conditioning, and sample enlargement and reduction. Design features that involve complex sample structure create potentially serious difficulties, whereas an equal probability design permits greater adaptability and flexibility. Structure should be employed sparingly and in awareness of its undesirable effects.     

Extraction capacity and the optimal order of extraction

The least-cost-first extraction rule for deposits with different extraction costs previously has been shown to be invalid in general equilibrium. This paper demonstrates that this rule also does not hold in partial equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited. Necessary and sufficient conditions for several surprising extraction orders are presented. If extraction from a high-cost resource is constrained, it may be optimal to begin extraction from a high-cost deposit (or backstop) strictly before extracting from a lower-cost deposit. If extraction from a low-cost resource is limited, it may be optimal to exhaust a high-cost deposit strictly before the low-cost deposit is exhausted or to abandon extraction temporarily from a high-cost deposit and then to exhaust it later. The analysis demonstrates how extraction constraints affect the order of extraction and shows that certain cost reversals are caused by limited extraction capacity rather than by the general equilibrium definition of extraction costs.