Landslide probability mapping by considering fuzzy numerical risk factor (FNRF) and landscape change for road corridor of Uttarakhand,India

Landslide poses severe threats to the natural landscape of the Lesser Himalayas and the lives and economy of the communities residing in that mountainous topography. This study aims to investigate whether the landscape change has any impact on landslide occurrences in the Kalsi-Chakrata road corridor by detailed investigation through correlation of the landslide susceptibility zones and the landscape change, and finally to demarcate the hotspot villages where influence of landscape on landslide occurrence may be more in future. The rational of this work is to delineate the areas with higher landslide susceptibility using the ensemble model of GIS-based multi-criteria decision making through fuzzy landslide numerical risk factor model along the Kalsi-Chakrata road corridor of Uttarakhand where no previous detailed investigation was carried out applying any contemporary statistical techniques. The approach includes the correlation of the landslide conditioning factors in the study area with the changes in land use and land cover (LULC) over the past decade to understand whether frequent landslides have any link with the physical and hydro-meteorological or, infrastructure, and socioeconomic activities. It was performed through LULC change detection and landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), and spatial overlay analysis to establish statistical correlation between the said parameters. The LULC change detection was performed using the object-oriented classification of satellite images acquired in 2010 and 2019. The inventory of the past landslides was formed by visual interpretation of high-resolution satellite images supported by an intensive field survey of each landslide area. To assess the landslide susceptibility zones for 2010 and 2019 scenarios, the geo-environmental or conditioning factors such as slope, rainfall, lithology, normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), proximity to road and land use and land cover (LULC) were considered, and the fuzzy LNRF technique was applied. The results indicated that the LULC in the study area was primarily transformed from forest cover and sparse vegetation to open areas and arable land, which is increased by 6.7% in a decade. The increase in built-up areas and agricultural land by 2.3% indicates increasing human interference that is continuously transforming the natural landscape. The landslide susceptibility map of 2019 shows that about 25% of the total area falls under high and very high susceptibility classes. The result shows that 80% of the high landslide susceptible class is contained by LULC classes of open areas, scrubland, and sparse vegetation, which point out the profound impact of landscape change that aggravate landslide occurrence in that area. The result acclaims that specific LULC classes, such as open areas, barren-rocky lands, are more prone to landslides in this Lesser Himalayan road corridor, and the LULC-LSM correlation can be instrumental for landslide probability assessment concerning the changing landscape. The fuzzy LNRF model applied has 89.6% prediction accuracy at 95% confidence level which is highly satisfactory. The present study of the connection of LULC change with the landslide probability and identification of the most fragile landscape at the village level has been instrumental in delineation of landslide susceptible areas, and such studies may help the decision-makers adopt appropriate mitigation measures in those villages where the landscape changes have mainly resulted in increased landslide occurrences and formulate strategic plans to promote ecologically sustainable development of the mountainous communities in India's Lesser Himalayas.

     

Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

Monitoring,imperfect detection,and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population

Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a given location. Decision makers managing threatened or pest species are regularly faced with this uncertainty. Wildlife diseases can drive species to extinction; thus, managing species with disease is an important part of conservation. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such disease that led to the listing of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) as endangered. Managers aim to maintain devils in the wild by establishing disease‐free insurance populations at isolated sites. Often a resident DFTD‐affected population must first be removed. In a successful collaboration between decision scientists and wildlife managers, we used an accessible population model to inform monitoring decisions and facilitate the establishment of an insurance population of devils on Forestier Peninsula. We used a Bayesian catch‐effort model to estimate population size of a diseased population from removal and camera trap data. We also analyzed the costs and benefits of declaring the area disease‐free prior to reintroduction and establishment of a healthy insurance population. After the monitoring session in May–June 2015, the probability that all devils had been successfully removed was close to 1, even when we accounted for a possible introduction of a devil to the site. Given this high probability and the baseline cost of declaring population absence prematurely, we found it was not cost‐effective to carry out any additional monitoring before introducing the insurance population. Considering these results within the broader context of Tasmanian devil management, managers ultimately decided to implement an additional monitoring session before the introduction. This was a conservative decision that accounted for uncertainty in model estimates and for the broader nonmonetary costs of mistakenly declaring the area disease‐free.     

Transport of atmospheric fine particulate matter: part 2--findings from recent field programs on the intraurban variability in fine particulate matter

Air quality field data, collected as part of the fine particulate matter Supersites Program and other field measurements programs, have been used to assess the degree of intraurban variability for various physical and chemical properties of ambient fine particulate matter. Spatial patterns vary from nearly homogeneous to quite heterogeneous, depending on the city, parameter of interest, and the approach or method used to define spatial variability. Secondary formation, which is often regional in nature, drives fine particulate matter mass and the relevant chemical components toward high intraurban spatial homogeneity. Those particulate matter components that are dominated by primary emissions within the urban area, such as black carbon and several trace elements, tend to exhibit greater spatial heterogeneity. A variety of study designs and data analysis approaches have been used to characterize intraurban variability. High temporal correlation does not imply spatial homogeneity. For example, there can be high temporal correlation but with spatial heterogeneity manifested as smooth spatial gradients, often emanating from areas of high emissions such as the urban core or industrial zones.     

Centrifugal study of zone of influence during air-sparging

Air sparging (AS) is one of the groundwater remediation techniques for remediating volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in saturated soil. However, in spite of the success of air sparging as a remediation technique for the cleanup of contaminated soils, to date, the fundamental mechanisms or the physics of air flow through porous media is not well understood. In this study, centrifugal modeling tests were performed to investigate air flow rates and the evolution of the zone of influence during the air sparging under various g-levels. The test results show that with the increase in sparging pressure the mass flow rate of the air sparging volume increases. The air mass flow rate increases linearly with the effective sparging pressure ratio, which is the difference between sparging pressure and hydrostatic pressure normalized with respect to the effective overburden pressure at the sparging point. Also the slope of mass flow rate with effective sparging pressure ratio increases with higher g-levels. This variation of the slope of mass flow rate of air sparging volume versus effective sparging pressure ratio, M, is linear with g-level confirming that the air flow through soil for a given effective sparging pressure ratio only depends on the g-level. The test results also show that with increasing sparging pressure, the zone of influence (ZOI), which consists of the width at the tip of the cone or lateral intrusion and the cone angle, will lead to an increase in both lateral intrusion and the cone angle. With a further increase in air injection pressure, the cone angle reaches a constant value while the lateral intrusion becomes the main contributor to the enlargement of the ZOI. However, beyond a certain value of effective sparging pressure ratio, there is no further enlargement of the ZOI.     

Occurrence of perfluorosulfonates and other perfluorochemicals in dust from selected homes in the city of Ottawa, Canada

A series of perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) including perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have been recently measured in a variety of environmental samples and biological matrices. In order to better understand the human exposure routes of these chemicals, levels of PFOS, PFOA, perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS), perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHS) and perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA) in house dust samples were investigated. The data revealed a correlation between the concentrations of PFCs and the percentage of carpeting in the house; older houses tended to have less carpeting, hence lower levels of these perfluorinated compounds in their dust.     

Analyzing the Impacts of Dams on Riparian Ecosystems: A Review of Research Strategies and Their Relevance to the Snake River Through Hells Canyon

River damming provides a dominant human impact on river environments worldwide, and while local impacts of reservoir flooding are immediate, subsequent ecological impacts downstream can be extensive. In this article, we assess seven research strategies for analyzing the impacts of dams and river flow regulation on riparian ecosystems. These include spatial comparisons of (1) upstream versus downstream reaches, (2) progressive downstream patterns, or (3) the dammed river versus an adjacent free-flowing or differently regulated river(s). Temporal comparisons consider (4) pre- versus post-dam, or (5) sequential post-dam conditions. However, spatial comparisons are complicated by the fact that dams are not randomly located, and temporal comparisons are commonly limited by sparse historic information. As a result, comparative approaches are often correlative and vulnerable to confounding factors. To complement these analyses, (6) flow or sediment modifications can be implemented to test causal associations. Finally, (7) process-based modeling represents a predictive approach incorporating hydrogeomorphic processes and their biological consequences. In a case study of Hells Canyon, the upstream versus downstream comparison is confounded by a dramatic geomorphic transition. Comparison of the multiple reaches below the dams should be useful, and the comparison of Snake River with the adjacent free-flowing Salmon River may provide the strongest spatial comparison. A pre- versus post-dam comparison would provide the most direct study approach, but pre-dam information is limited to historic reports and archival photographs. We conclude that multiple study approaches are essential to provide confident interpretations of ecological impacts downstream from dams, and propose a comprehensive study for Hells Canyon that integrates multiple research strategies.     

Establishment of a constructed wetland in extreme dryland

Background, aim, and scope

The project was set to construct an extensive wetland in the southernmost region of Israel at Kibbutz Neot Smadar (30°02′45″ N and 35°01′19″ E). The results of the first period of monitoring, summary, and perspectives are presented. The constructed wetland (CW) was built and the subsequent monitoring performed in the framework of the Southern Arava Sustainable Waste Management Plan, funded by the EU LIFE Fund. The specific aims were: (1) To end current sewage disposal and pollution of the ground, the aquifer, and the dry river bed (wadi) paths by biologically treating the sewage as part of the creation of a sustainable wetland ecosystem. (2) Serve as an example of CW in the Negev highlands and the Arava Valley climates for neighboring communities and as a test ground for plants and building methods appropriate to hyper arid climate. (3) Serve as an educational resource and tourist attraction for groups to learn about water reuse, recycling, local wildlife and migrating birds, including serving the heart of a planned Ecological–Educational Bird Park. This report is intended to allow others who are planning similar systems in hyper arid climates to learn from our experience.

Materials and methods

The project is located in an extreme arid desert with less than 40 mm of rain annually and temperature ranges of ?5°C to +42°C. The site receives 165–185 m³ of municipal and agricultural wastes daily, including cowshed and goat wastes and winery outflow.

Results

The CW establishment at Neot Smadar was completed in October 2006. For 8 months, clean water flowed through the system while the plants were taking root. In June 2007, the wetland was connected to the oxidation pond and full operation began. Because of seepage and evaporation, during the first several months, the water level was not high enough to allow free flow from one bed to the next. To bed A, the water was pumped periodically from the oxidation pond (Fig. 1) and from there flowed by gravitation through the rest of the system. The initial results of the monitoring are promising. In nearly all measurements, the system succeeded as expected to reduce levels of contaminants at least to the level acceptable for irrigating fruit trees and often to the level of unlimited irrigation. The introduction of the plants in the system and their physiological performance were evaluated and were found to correlate well to the quality of water in the various beds.

Discussion

It should be said at the outset that evaluation of the performance of a CW system is a long-term process. Thus, the main aim of this report is to present the problems, difficulties, preliminary results, and concepts concerned with the first stage of establishment of CW in an extremely dry region.

Conclusions

The CW system was designed to dispose of municipal and agricultural wastes in a way that not merely reduces pollution, but adds to environmental quality by creating accessible parkland for local residents and tourists. Several factors affected the performance of the system at the initial stages of operation: ecological balance between microbes and plants, big seasonal variations, seepage and evaporation reduced the flow in the initial operation of the system. Despite the initial difficulties, the quality of water coming out the system is acceptable for irrigation.

Recommendations and perspectives

The CW can function well under extreme dryland conditions. The oxidation pond was the major source of evaporation and bad odors. Therefore, alternatives to the oxidation pond are needed. Cost effectiveness of the system still has to be evaluated systematically.