A Method for Ensemble Wildland Fire Simulation

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis is used to characterize the seasonal trend in ERC, autocorrelation of residuals, and daily standard deviation and stochastically generate artificial time series of afternoon fuel moisture. Daily wind speed and direction are sampled stochastically from joint probabilities of historical wind speed and direction for the date range of the fire simulation period. Hundreds or thousands of fire growth simulations are then performed using the synthetic fire weather sequences. The performance of these methods is evaluated in terms of the number of ensemble member simulations, one- versus two-dimensional fire spread simulations, and comparison with results from 91 fires occurring from 2007 to 2009. Simulations were found to be in consistent agreement with observations, but trends indicate that the ensemble average of simulated fire sizes were consistently larger than actual fires whereas the farthest extent burned by fires was underestimated.     

Translating habitat class to land cover to map area of habitat of terrestrial vertebrates

Area of habitat (AOH) is defined as the “habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range” and is calculated by subtracting areas of unsuitable land cover and elevation from the range. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Habitats Classification Scheme provides information on species habitat associations, and typically unvalidated expert opinion is used to match habitat to land-cover classes, which generates a source of uncertainty in AOH maps. We developed a data-driven method to translate IUCN habitat classes to land cover based on point locality data for 6986 species of terrestrial mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles. We extracted the land-cover class at each point locality and matched it to the IUCN habitat class or classes assigned to each species occurring there. Then, we modeled each land-cover class as a function of IUCN habitat with (SSG, using) logistic regression models. The resulting odds ratios were used to assess the strength of the association between each habitat and land-cover class. We then compared the performance of our data-driven model with those from a published translation table based on expert knowledge. We calculated the association between habitat classes and land-cover classes as a continuous variable, but to map AOH as binary presence or absence, it was necessary to apply a threshold of association. This threshold can be chosen by the user according to the required balance between omission and commission errors. Some habitats (e.g., forest and desert) were assigned to land-cover classes with more confidence than others (e.g., wetlands and artificial). The data-driven translation model and expert knowledge performed equally well, but the model provided greater standardization, objectivity, and repeatability. Furthermore, our approach allowed greater flexibility in the use of the results and uncertainty to be quantified. Our model can be modified for regional examinations and different taxonomic groups.     

Postfire stand structure in a semiarid savanna: cross-scale challenges estimating biomass.

Algorithms relating remotely sensed woody cover to biomass are often the basis for large-scale inventories of aboveground carbon stocks. However, these algorithms are commonly applied in a generic fashion without consideration of disturbances that might alter vegetation structure. We compared field and remote sensing estimates of woody biomass on savannas with contrasting disturbance (fire) histories and assessed potential errors in estimating woody biomass from cover without considering fire history. Field surveys quantified multilayer cover (MLC) of woody and succulent plants on sites experiencing wildfire in 1989 or 1994 and on nearby unburned (control) sites. Remote sensing estimates of the woody cover fraction (WCF) on burned and control sites were derived from contemporary (2005) dry-season Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery (during a period when herbaceous cover was senescent) using a probabilistic spectral mixture analysis model. Satellite WCF estimates were compared to field MLC assessments and related to aboveground biomass using allometry. Field-based MLC and remotely sensed WCFs both indicated that woody cover was comparable on control areas and areas burned 11-16 years ago. However, biomass was approximately twofold higher on control sites. Canopy cover was a strong predictor of woody biomass on burned and control areas, but fire history significantly altered the linear cover-biomass relationship on control plots to a curvilinear relationship on burned plots. Results suggest predictions of woody biomass from "generic" two-dimensional (2-D) cover algorithms may underestimate biomass in undisturbed stands and overestimate biomass in stands recovering from disturbance. Improving the accuracy of woody-biomass estimates from field and/or remotely sensed cover may therefore require disturbance-specific models or detection of vegetation height and transforming 2-D vegetation cover to 3-D vegetation volume.     

Estimate of Contribution of Jet Aircraft Operations To Trace Element Concentration at or near Airports

Samples of ASTM type A jet fuel were analyzed for trace element content by instrumental neutron activation techniques. Forty-nine elements were sought. Only ten, aluminum, gold, indium, lanthanum, titanium, vanadium, barium, dysprosium, tellurium, and uranium, were observed at levels above the detection limits encountered; of these only aluminum, titanium, and barium were present at concentrations greater than 0.1 ppm. Estimates of exhaust gas. concentrations are made, and the ambient contribution at or near airports is calculated by using the Los Angeles International Airport dispersion model. It is shown that the ambient contribution is about an order of magnitude below typical urban levels for virtually all elements sought.     

Brominated flame retardants in dust from UK cars--within-vehicle spatial variability, evidence for degradation and exposure implications

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs), and tetrabromobiphenol-A (TBBP-A) were measured in a preliminary study of dust from passenger cabins and trunks of 14 UK cars. Concentrations in cabin dust of HBCDs, TBBP-A, and BDEs 47, 85, 99, 100, 153, 154, 183, 196, 197, 202, 203, 206, 207, 208, and 209 exceeded significantly (p < 0.05) those in trunk dust. Sampling cabin dust thus appears to provide a more accurate indicator of human exposure via car dust ingestion than trunk dust. Elevated cabin concentrations are consistent with greater in-cabin use of BFRs. In five cars, while no significant differences (p > 0.05) in concentrations of HBCDs and most PBDEs were detected in dust sampled from four different seating areas; concentrations of TBBP-A and of PBDEs 154, 206, 207, 208, and 209 were significantly higher (p < 0.05) in dust sampled in the front seats. Possible photodebromination of BDE-209 was indicated by significantly higher (p < 0.05) concentrations of BDE-202 in cabin dust. In-vehicle exposure via dust ingestion to PBDEs, HBCDs and TBBP-A exceeded that via inhalation. Comparison with overall exposure via diet, dust ingestion, and inhalation shows while in-vehicle exposure is a minor contributor to overall exposure to BDE-99, ΣHBCDs, and TBBP-A, it is a significant pathway for BDE-209.     

Investigation of titanium liquid/gas diffusion layers in proton exchange membrane electrolyzer cells

In a proton exchange membrane electrolyzer cell (PEMEC), liquid/gas diffusion layer (LGDL) is expected to transport electrons, heat, and reactants/products to and from the catalyst layer with minimum voltage, current, thermal, interfacial, and fluidic losses. In addition, carbon materials, which are typically used in PEM fuel cells (PEMFCs), are unsuitable in PEMECs due to the high ohmic potential and highly oxidative environment of the oxygen electrode. In this study, a set of titanium gas diffusion layers with different thicknesses and porosities are designed and examined coupled with the development of a robust titanium bipolar plate. It has been found that the performance of electrolyzer improves along with a decrease in thickness or porosity of the anode LGDL of titanium woven meshes. The ohmic resistance of anode LGDL and contact resistance between anode LGDL and the anode catalyst play dominant roles in electrolyzer performance, and better performance can be obtained by reducing ohmic resistance. Thin titanium LGDLs with straight-through pores and optimal pore morphologies are recommended for the future developments of low-cost LGDLs with minimum ohmic/transport losses.     

Balancing environmental and industry sustainability: A case study of the US gold mining industry

Mandatory insurance requirements and/or mitigation fees (royalties) for mining companies may help reduce environmental risk exposure for the federal government. Mining is examined since the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Toxic Release Inventory reveals that this sector produces more hazardous waste than any other industrial sector. Although uncommon, environmental expense can exceed hundreds of millions of dollars per development. Of particular concern is the potential for mines to become unfunded Superfund sites. Monte Carlo simulation of risk exposure is used to establish a plausible range of unfunded federal liabilities associated with cyanide-leach gold mining. A model is developed to assess these costs and their impact on both the federal budget and corporate profitability (i.e., industry sustainability), particularly if such costs are borne by offending firms.     

Occurrence of alternative flame retardants in indoor dust from New Zealand: indoor sources and human exposure assessment

Due to worldwide restrictions on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), the demand for alternative flame retardants (AFRs), such as organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs), novel brominated FRs (NBFRs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs), has recently increased. Little is known about human exposure to NBFRs and OPFRs and that their levels in dust have been scarcely evaluated worldwide. To increase the knowledge regarding these chemicals, we measured concentrations of five major NBFRs, ten OPFRs and three HBCD isomers in indoor dust from New Zealand homes. Dust samples were taken from living room floors (n=34) and from mattresses of the same houses (n=16). Concentrations (ngg(-1)) of NBFRs were: 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE) (<2-175), decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE) (<5-1430), 2-ethylhexyl-2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (TBB) (<2-2285) and bis(2-ethylhexyl)-3,4,5,6-tetrabromophthalate (TBPH) (<2-640). For OPFRs, concentrations (ngg(-1)) ranged between: tri-ethyl-phosphate (TEP) (<10-235), tri-n-butyl-phosphate (TnBP) (<20-7545), tris-(2-chloroethyl)-phosphate (TCEP) (<20-7605), tris-(1-chloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TCPP) (20-7615), tri-(2-butoxyethyl)-phosphate (TBEP) (50-27325), tris-(2,3-dichloropropyl)-phosphate (TDCPP) (20-16560), tri-phenyl-phosphate (TPhP) (20-35190), and tri-cresyl-phosphate (TCP) (<50-3760). HBCD concentrations fell in the range <2-4100ngg(-1). BTBPE, DBDPE, TBPH, TBEP, and TnBP showed significant positive correlation (p<0.05) between their concentrations in mattresses and the corresponding floor dust (n=16). These data were used to derive a range of plausible exposure scenarios. Although the estimated exposure is well below the corresponding reference doses (RfDs), caution is needed given the likely future increase in use of these FRs and the currently unknown contribution to human exposure by other pathways such as inhalation and diet.