Measurements of nitrogen dioxide in Greenland using Palmes diffusion tubes

Measurements of nitrogen dioxide using the Palmes diffusion tubes in Uummannaq, Aasiaat, and Nuuk. all located along the west-coast of Greenland, have demonstrated that the levels of pollution at the most heavily impacted sites are comparable to levels in much larger towns in Denmark. The highest concentrations were, in general, observed near sites influenced by car traffic (peak concentrations of up to 16 ppbv), medium concentrations were observed in the residential areas (2 6 ppbv), and very low levels were found at the background locations in the town outskirts (1-2 ppbv). Observations of nitrogen dioxide concentrations less than 0.1 ppbv at a remote site, Akia, 25 km from Nuuk, indicate that, compared to local sources, long-range transport of nitrogen dioxide is not important in western Greenland.     

Adaptation to climate change in the Northeast United States: opportunities, processes, constraints

Scientific evidence accumulating over the past decade documents that climate change impacts are already being experienced in the US Northeast. Policy-makers and resource managers must now prepare for the impacts from climate change and support implementing such plans on the ground. In this paper we argue that climate change challenges the region to maintain its economic viability, but also holds some opportunities that may enhance economic development, human well-being, and social justice. To face these challenges and seize these opportunities effectively we must better understand adaptation capacities, opportunities and constraints, the social processes of adaptation, approaches for engaging critical players and the broader public in informed debate, decision-making, and conscious interventions in the adaptation process. This paper offers a preliminary qualitative assessment, in which we emphasize the need for (1) assessing the feasibility and side effects of technological adaptation options, (2) increasing available resources and improving equitable access to them, (3) increasing institutional flexibility, fit, cooperation and decision-making authority, (4) using and enhancing human and social capital, (5) improving access to insurance and other risk-spreading mechanisms, and (6) linking scientific information more effectively to decision-makers while engaging the public. Throughout, we explore these issues through illustrative sectoral examples. We conclude with a number of principles that may guide the preparation of future adaptation plans for the Northeast.     

An integrated climate change assessment for the Northeast United States

The papers in this Special Issue are the primary technical underpinnings for the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA), an integrated regional-scale assessment of projected climate change, impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation across the US Northeast. The consequences of future pathways of greenhouse gas emissions on projected climate and impacts across climate-sensitive sectors is assessed by using downscaled projections from three global climate models under both higher (Alfi) and lower (B1) emissions scenarios. The findings illustrate that near-term reductions in emissions can greatly reduce the extent and severity of regionally important impacts on natural and managed ecosystems and public health in the latter half of this century, and increase the feasibility that those impacts which are now unavoidable can be successfully managed through adaptation.     

Rapid tissue reduction and recovery in the sponge Aplysinella sp.

We observed a pronounced, yet reversible tissue reduction in the tropical sponge Aplysinella sp. under non-experimental conditions in its natural habitat, after transfer into seawater tanks, as well as after transplantation from deep to shallow water in the field. Tissue reduction resulted in the formation of small “reduction bodies” tightly attached to the sponge skeleton. Although volume loss and gain were substantial, both tissue reduction and regeneration were often remarkably rapid, occurring within few hours. Microscopic analysis of the reduction bodies revealed morphological similarities to previously described sponge primmorphs, with densely packed archaeocytes and spherulous cells enclosed by a thin layer of epithelial-like cells. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) revealed pronounced changes in the sponge-associated microbial community upon tissue reduction during laboratory and field experiments and following changes in ambient conditions after transplantation in the field. Generally, the microbial community associated with this sponge proved less stable, less abundant, and less diverse than those of other, previously investigated Verongid sponges. However, one single phylotype was consistently present in DGGE profiles of Aplysinella sp. This phylotype clustered with γ-proteobacterial sequences found previously in other sponge species of different taxonomic affiliations and geographic provenances, as well as in sponge larvae. No apparent changes in the total secondary metabolite content (per dry weight) occurred in Aplysinella sp. upon tissue reduction; however, comparative analysis of intact and reduced tissue suggested changes in the concentrations of two minor compounds. Besides being ecologically interesting, the tissue reduction phenomenon in Aplysinella sp. provides an experimentally manipulable system for studies on sponge/microbe symbioses. Moreover, it may prove useful as a model system to investigate molecular mechanisms of basic Metazoan traits in vivo, complementing the in vitro sponge primmorph system currently used in this context.     

Using and comparing two nonparametric methods (CART and MARS) to model the potential distribution of gullies

Gully erosion represents an important soil degradation process in rangelands. In order to take preventive or control measures and to reduce its environmental damages and economical costs it is useful to localize the points in the landscape where gullying takes place and to determine the importance of the different factors involved. The study is carried out in Extremadura, southwest Spain. The main objectives of this work are: (a) comparing two nonparametric schemes to model the potential distribution of gullies, (b) evaluating the importance of the different factors involved in gullying processes, (c) analyzing the role of prevalence in the success of the model and finally, (d) implementing and mapping the results with the help of a Geographical Information System (GIS). Two methods were used to model the response of a dependent variable (gullying) from a set of independent variables: Classification And Regression Trees (CART) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Three different datasets were used; the first one for constructing the model (training dataset) and the others for validating the model (external datasets). These datasets are formed by a target variable (presence or absence of gullies) and a set of independent variables. The dependent variable was obtained by mapping the locations of gullies with the help of a GPS and high resolution aerial ortophotographs. A set of 32 independent variables reflecting topography, lithology, soil type, climate, land use and vegetation cover of each area were used. The performance of the models was evaluated using a non-dependent threshold method: the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The results showed a better performance of MARS for predicting gullying with areas under the ROC curve of 0.98 and 0.97 for the validation datasets, while CART presented values of 0.96 and 0.66.     

Is the effect of forest structure on bird diversity modified by forest productivity?

Currently, the most common strategy when managing forests for biodiversity at the landscape scale is to maintain structural complexity within stands and provide a variety of seral stages across landscapes. Advances in ecological theory reveal that biodiversity at continental scales is strongly influenced by available energy (i.e., climate factors relating to heat and light and primary productivity). This paper explores how available energy and forest structural complexity may interact to drive biodiversity at a regional scale. We hypothesized that bird species richness exhibits a hump-shaped relationship with energy at the regional scale of the northwestern United States. As a result, we hypothesized that the relationship between energy and richness within a landscape is positive in energy-limited landscapes and flat or decreasing in energy-rich landscapes. Additionally, we hypothesized that structural complexity explains less of the variation in species richness in energy-limited environments and more in energy-rich environments and that the slope of the relationship between structural complexity and richness is greatest in energy-rich environments. We sampled bird communities and vegetation across seral stages and biophysical settings at each of five landscapes arrayed across a productivity gradient from the Pacific Coast to the Rocky Mountains within the five northwestern states of the contiguous United States. We analyzed the response of richness to structural complexity and energy covariates at each landscape. We found that (1) richness had a hump-shaped relationship with available energy across the northwestern United States, (2) the landscape-scale relationships between energy and richness were positive or hump shaped in energy-limited locations and were flat or negative in energy-rich locations, (3) forest structural complexity explained more of the variation in bird species richness in energy-rich landscapes, and (4) the slope of the relationship between forest structural complexity and richness was steepest in energy-limited locations. In energy-rich locations, forest managers will likely increase landscape-scale bird diversity by providing a range of forest structural complexity across all seral stages. In low-energy environments, bird diversity will likely be maximized by managing local high-energy hotspots judiciously and adjusting harvest intensities in other locations to compensate for slower regeneration rates.     

Nitrogen Inputs from Agriculture: Towards Better Assessments of Eutrophication Status in Marine Waters

Nutrient enrichment of coastal marine waters caused by losses of nitrate (NO₃⁻) from agriculture is an increasing global problem. In the European Union, the Nitrates Directive (ND) of 1991 was meant to be a cornerstone in reducing eutrophication effects in coastal waters downstream from intensively farmed catchments. Although reductions in losses of nitrate have been attained, very few Member States have yet been able to reduce eutrophication effects caused by inputs of NO₃⁻ from agriculture. We report trends in concentrations of NO₃⁻ and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in Danish coastal and open marine waters during the period from 1996 to 2011 together with an assessment of eutrophication status based on multiple indicators (e.g. nutrient concentrations, Chl-a, submerged aquatic vegetation and benthic macroinvertebrates). Despite decreasing concentrations of both NO₃⁻and Chl-a, Danish coastal waters are not yet to be classified as ‘unaffected by eutrophication’. In order to improve future pan-European evaluations of the effectiveness of the ND, we argue for the added value of including indicators and assessment principles from other European Directives, i.e. the Water Framework Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0514-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution

Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.