Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution

Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.     

Analysis and Simulation of Wintertime Light Scattering by the Urban Aerosol in Dallas-Fort Worth

ABSTRACT

Wintertime atmospheric light scattering in Dallas, TX, was estimated through the use of aerosol models. Input data for the aerosol models were provided by measurements of aerosol chemistry, physical particle size distributions, and distributions of particulate sulfur by particle size, and by predictions by an atmospheric simulation model. Light scattering measurements provided a basis for testing the aerosol models. The SCAPE thermodynamic equilibrium model was used to estimate the amount of liquid water associated with particles and the ELSIE Mie scattering model was applied to estimate the resulting light scattering. The calculations were based on aerosol properties measured in Dallas during December 1994 and February 1995, and changes in scattering due to hypothetical changes in the aerosol were predicted. The predicted light scattering was compared to scattering measured by an Optec nephelom-eter; agreement was within 20% in every case.     

Waste prevention for sustainable resource and waste management

Although the 2Rs (reduce and reuse) are considered high-priority approaches, there has not been enough quantitative research on effective 2R management. The purpose of this paper is to provide information obtained through the International Workshop in Kyoto, Japan, on 11–13 November 2015, which included invited experts and researchers in several countries who were in charge of 3R policies, and an additional review of 245 previous studies. It was found that, regarding policy development, the decoupling between environmental pressures and economy growth was recognized as an essential step towards a sustainable society. 3R and resource management policies, including waste prevention, will play a crucial role. Approaches using material/substance flow analyses have become sophisticated enough to describe the fate of resources and/or hazardous substances based on human activity and the environment, including the final sink. Life-cycle assessment has also been developed to evaluate waste prevention activities. Regarding target products for waste prevention, food loss is one of the waste fractions with the highest priority because its countermeasures have significant upstream and downstream effects. Persistent organic pollutants and hazardous compounds should also be taken into account in the situation where recycling activities are globally widespread for the promotion of a material-cycling society.     

Partition of iodine (¹²⁹I and ¹²⁷I) isotopes in soils and marine sediments

Natural organic matter, such as humic and fulvic acids and humin, plays a key role in determining the fate and mobility of radioiodine in soil and sediments. The radioisotope ¹²⁹I is continuously produced and released from nuclear fuel reprocessing plants, and as a biophilic element, its environmental mobility is strongly linked to organic matter.Due to its long half-life (15.7 million years), ¹²⁹I builds up in the environment and can be traced since the beginning of the nuclear era in reservoirs such as soils and marine sediments. Nevertheless, partition of the isotope between the different types of organic matter in soil and sediment is rarely explored. Here we present a sequential extraction of ¹²⁹I and ¹²⁷I chemical forms encountered in a Danish soil, a soil reference material (IAEA-375), an anoxic marine sediment from Southern Norway and an oxic sediment from the Barents Sea. The different forms of iodine are related to water soluble, exchangeable, carbonates, oxides as well as iodine bound to humic acid, fulvic acid and to humin and minerals. This is the first study to identify ¹²⁹I in humic and fulvic acid and humin. The results show that 30-56% of the total ¹²⁷I and 42-60% of the total ¹²⁹I are associated with organic matter in soil and sediment samples. At a soil/sediment pH below 5.0-5.5, ¹²⁷I and ¹²⁹I in the organic fraction associate primarily with the humic acid while at soil/sediment pH > 6 ¹²⁹I was mostly found to be bound to fulvic acid. Anoxic conditions seem to increase the mobility and availability of iodine compared to oxic, while subaerial conditions (soils) reduces the availability of water soluble fraction compared to subaqueous (marine) conditions.     

Monitoring plastic ingestion by the northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis in the North Sea

The abundance of plastics in stomachs of northern fulmars from the North Sea is used in the OSPAR Ecological Quality Objective (EcoQO) for marine litter. The preliminary EcoQO defines acceptable ecological quality as the situation where no more than 10% of fulmars exceed a critical level of 0.1 g of plastic in the stomach. During 2003-2007, 95% of 1295 fulmars sampled in the North Sea had plastic in the stomach (on average 35 pieces weighing 0.31 g) and the critical level of 0.1 g of plastic was exceeded by 58% of birds, with regional variations ranging from 48 to 78%. Long term data for the Netherlands since the 1980s show a decrease of industrial, but an increase of user plastics, with shipping and fisheries as the main sources. The EcoQO is now also used as an indicator for Good Environmental Status in the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive.     

The use of environmental metabolomics to determine glyphosate level of exposure in rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) seedlings

Metabolic profiling in plants can be used to differentiate between treatments and to search for biomarkers for exposure. A methodology for processing Ultra-High-Performance Liquid Chromatography-Diode-Array-Detection data is devised. This methodology includes a scheme for selecting informative wavelengths, baseline removal, retention time alignment, selection of relevant retention times, and principal component analysis (PCA). Plant crude extracts from rapeseed seedling exposed to sublethal concentrations of glyphosate are used as a study case. Through this approach, plants exposed to concentrations down to 5 μM could be distinguished from the controls. The compounds responsible for this differentiation were partially identified and were different from those specific for high exposure samples, which suggests that two different responses to glyphosate are elicited in rapeseed depending on the level of exposure. The PCA loadings indicate that a combination of other metabolites could be more sensitive than the response of shikimate to detect glyphosate exposure.     

Temporal trend (1988-2008) of hexabromocyclododecane enantiomers in herring gull eggs from the German coastal region

Levels of α-, β-, and γ-hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) were determined in pooled eggs from herring gulls (Larus argentatus) sampled on three bird sanctuaries near the German North Sea coast between 1988 and 2008 (Mellum and Trischen) and the German Baltic Sea coast between 1998 and 2008 (Heuwiese) and archived by the German Environmental Specimen Bank. Pressurized fluid extraction, gel permeation chromatography, and LC-MS/MS using ¹³C₁₂-labelled isotope standards and a chiral column were applied. α-HBCD was the dominating diastereomer and ranged between 3.7 and 107 ng g⁻¹ lw while β- and γ-HBCD were throughout close to LOQ. The highest α-HBCD concentration was found in eggs from Mellum sampled in the year 2000. Interestingly, HBCD in eggs from the three islands displayed similar time courses with levels increasing to a peak contamination around 2000 and decreasing levels ever since. Chiral signatures of α-HBCD in eggs differed among the islands but indicated a preferential enrichment of the first eluting enantiomer (−)-α-HBCD.     

Transport modes and pathways of the strongly sorbing pesticides glyphosate and pendimethalin through structured drained soils

Leaching of the strongly sorbing pesticides glyphosate and pendimethalin was evaluated in an 8-month field study focussing on preferential flow and particle-facilitated transport, both of which may enhance the leaching of such pesticides in structured soils. Glyphosate mainly sorbs to mineral sorption sites, while pendimethalin mainly sorbs to organic sorption sites. The two pesticides were applied in equal dosage to a structured, tile-drained soil, and the concentration of the pesticides was then measured in drainage water sampled flow-proportionally.The leaching pattern of glyphosate resembled that of pendimethalin, suggesting that the leaching potential of pesticides sorbed to either the inorganic or organic soil fractions is high in structured soils. Both glyphosate and pendimethalin leached from the root zone, with the average concentration in the drainage water being 3.5 and 2.7 μg L⁻¹, respectively. Particle-facilitated transport (particles >0.24 μm) accounted for only a small proportion of the observed leaching (13-16% for glyphosate and 16-31% for pendimethalin). Drain-connected macropores located above or in the vicinity of the drains facilitated very rapid transport of pesticide to the drains. That the concentration of glyphosate and pendimethalin in the drainage water remained high (>0.1 μg L⁻¹) for up to 7 d after a precipitation event indicates that macropores between the drains connected to underlying fractures were able to transport strongly sorbing pesticides in the dissolved phase. Lateral transport of dissolved pesticide via such discontinuities implies that strongly sorbing pesticides such as glyphosate and pendimethalin could potentially be present in high concentrations (>0.1 μg L⁻¹) in both water originating from the drainage system and the shallow groundwater located at the depth of the drainage system.     

The distance between state and rural society in the PRC. Reading document no 1 (February 2004)

While the People's Republic of China appears on a daily basis in all of the important newspapers around the world with its enormous successes in modernizing its economy, life in the Chinese countryside usually does not attract international attention. However, we know from a wide range of reports that the situation in the Chinese countryside is getting more and more complicated with local corruption, pollution and poverty growing in most parts of the country. The Chinese language press reports on a growing number of local uprisings in remote areas. While some analysts regard the situation in the countryside as a potential threat to the ongoing peaceful process of economic reform in China, China seems to be well prepared to cope with this change and the state is comparatively flexible in dealing with unrest among the rural population. So far the system itself has not been challenged by peasant discontent. This article introduces the idea that the distance between state and rural society is the basis of this flexibility. It will analyze a major policy document issued by the state and party leadership in order to show how state and rural society interact on the basis of a still insurmountable distance between state and rural society.     

Growth and development rates of Calanus finmarchicus nauplii during a diatom spring bloom

Growth and development rates were determined for nauplii of Calanus finmarchicus (Gunnerus) in the near-shore waters of a western Norwegian fjord from in situ mesocosm incubations. The major food source for the nauplii was diatoms, but Phaeocystis sp., dinoflagellates and ciliates were also part of the diet. At local temperatures ranging from 4.8 to 5.2 °C the cumulative median development time from hatching to Nauplius VI was 19 d. The time taken to molt to the next naupliar stage was approximately constant (3 d) from Stages IV to VI, but Stage III needed the longest development time (5 d). The instantaneous growth rate in terms of body carbon was negative from hatching to Nauplius Stage II, but as high as 0.25 to 0.30 d⁻¹ from Stage III to V. Enhancement of food resources by nutrient addition led to no significant change in specific growth rates. Additionally, the cohorts from different nutrient regimes showed almost equal development time, size and body carbon within stages. Length–weight relationships of nauplii from the two different food resources were: W _{low resources} = 4.17 × 10⁻⁶ × L ^2.03 (r ² = 0.84) and W _{high resources} = 4.29 × 10⁻⁶ × L ^2.05 (r ² = 0.92), where weight (W) is in micrograms of C and body length (L) in micrometers. The natural body morphology of naupliar stages I to VI is illustrated with digital images, including the final molt from Nauplius VI to Copepodid Stage I. In general, development of the nauplii was faster than that of the copepodids of C. finmarchicus, and structural growth was exponential from naupliar stages III to VI. This study validates our earlier results that nauplii of C. finmarchicus can obtain high growth and nearly maximal developmental rates at relatively low food levels (∼50 μg C l⁻¹), suggesting that nauplii exhibit far less dependence on food supply than copepodids. Received: 30 July 1999 / Accepted: 7 March 2000