The Influence of Agroforestry and Other Land-Use Types on the Persistence of a Sumatran Tiger (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Panthera tigris sumatrae</Emphasis>) Population: An Individual-Based Model Approach

The importance of preserving both protected areas and their surrounding landscapes as one of the major conservation strategies for tigers has received attention over recent decades. However, the mechanism of how land-use surrounding protected areas affects the dynamics of tiger populations is poorly understood. We developed Panthera Population Persistence (PPP)—an individual-based model—to investigate the potential mechanism of the Sumatran tiger population dynamics in a protected area and under different land-use scenarios surrounding the reserve. We tested three main landscape compositions (single, combined and real land-uses of Tesso-Nilo National Park and its surrounding area) on the probability of and time to extinction of the Sumatran tiger over 20 years in Central Sumatra. The model successfully explains the mechanisms behind the population response of tigers under different habitat landscape compositions. Feeding and mating behaviours of tigers are key factors, which determined population persistence in a heterogeneous landscape. All single land-use scenarios resulted in tiger extinction but had a different probability of extinction within 20 years. If tropical forest was combined with other land-use types, the probability of extinction was smaller. The presence of agroforesty and logging concessions adjacent to protected areas encouraged the survival of tiger populations. However, with the real land-use scenario of Tesso-Nilo National Park, tigers could not survive for more than 10 years. Promoting the practice of agroforestry systems surrounding the park is probably the most reasonable way to steer land-use surrounding the Tesso-Nilo National Park to support tiger conservation.     

Assessment of the different parameters affecting the CO2 purity from coal fired oxyfuel process

The oxyfuel process is one of the most promising options to capture CO₂ from coal fired power plants. The combustion takes place in an atmosphere of almost pure oxygen, delivered from an air separation unit (ASU), and recirculated flue gas. This provides a flue gas containing 80–90 vol% CO₂ on a dry basis. Impurities are caused by the purity of the oxygen from the ASU, the combustion process and air ingress. Via liquefaction a CO₂ stream with purity in the range from 85 to 99.5 vol% can be separated and stored geologically. Impurities like O₂, NO_X, SO_X, and CO may negatively influence the transport infrastructure or the geological storage site by causing geochemical reactions. Therefore the maximum acceptable concentrations of the impurities in the separated CO₂ stream must be defined regarding the requirements from transportation and storage. The main objective of the research project COORAL therefore is to define the required CO₂ purity for capture and storage.     

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01381-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Capability and limitations of first-order and diffusion approaches to describe long-term sorption of chlortoluron in soil

This paper compares the capability of a first-order and a spherical diffusion model to describe and predict long-term sorption and desorption processes of chlortoluron in two soils. Chlortoluron sorption was investigated at different time scales utilizing one rate experiment (120 days) and two sorption/desorption experiments. Experimental periods for sorption and desorption were set to 1 day (five desorption steps) and 30 days (three desorption steps), respectively. Upon fitting, the two models satisfactorily described the whole set of data. The spherical diffusion model performed better than the first-order model. We then tested the predictive capability of the models by predicting 30-day sorption/desorption data using kinetic parameters fitted on 1-day sorption/desorption data only. While the spherical diffusion model was able to predict the 30-day data set, the first-order model failed completely. Fitting both models to subsets of the data corresponding to different experimental time scales revealed that the rate parameter as well as the Freundlich coefficient of the first-order model are strongly time-dependent--a property that is not shared by parameters of the spherical diffusion model. The apparent stability of the spherical diffusion model with regard to time dependency of its parameters indicates that sorptive uptake may be diffusion-controlled. This also explains the models greater predictive power across different time scales compared to the first-order model. Finally, we investigate the suitability of solute class specific log-linear relationships between the first-order rate parameter and the Freundlich coefficient presented by earlier researchers in the light of the time dependency observed for the parameters of the first-order model.     

A vertical-compressed three-dimensional ecological model in Lake Taihu, China

A three-dimensional ecological model on the basis of the analyses of environmental characteristics is set up for Lake Taihu, one of the largest shallow lakes in China. The hydrodynamic processes, nutrient cycling, chemical processes and biological processes are integrated in the model. Model state variables include: water current, surface displacement, nutrients of nitrogen and phosphorus, as well as their different forms such as ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, phosphate phosphorus, etc., biomasses of macroplankton, phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish, and also the nutrient levels of macroplankton and phytoplankton. A nutrient budget and sediment transformation are also coupled in the model. The data from January 17, 1997 to January 18, 1998 are use to calibrate the model. The model results have shown good agreement with the observations. It implies that the model could be used for the lake environmental management and research for examining the processes and determining the water quality. The reasons of deviations between the modelled results and the observed values are also discussed. There are six factors that explain the deviations of the modelled results from the observed values and they can be grouped into two sets. One set of problems is associated with the standard deviation introduced by sampling and analyses. The second set of problems can be solved by introduction of processes lacking in the present model (resuspension, phytoplankton transportation mode under the wind with low speed, shifts in species composition and varied size of phytoplankton and zooplankton). The latter two processes should be included in the model at a later stage by integration of a structurally dynamic approach into the three-dimensional model.