气候变化对景观和区域过程的影响及其对气候系统的反馈

北极生态系统的生物和物理过程会在不同的时间、空间尺度上对地球生态系统产生反馈作用,并与之相互影响.气候变化对北极地区的影响及其对全球气候系统的反馈主要存在着四种潜在机制反照率改变、生态系统对温室气体的排放或吸收、甲烷类温室气体的排放、影响海洋暖流淡水量的增长.这些反馈机制在某种程度上是由生态系统的分布和特征,尤其是大规模植被区域变化来控制的.通过少量全年的CO2通量测量表明,目前在地理分布上碳源区要比碳汇区要多.根据目前现有的关于CH4排放源地信息表明,景观规模上的CH4排放量对北极地区的温室效应平衡至关重要.北极地区的能量和水量平衡在变化的气候下,也是一个很重要的反馈机制.植被密度以及分布范围的增加会导致反射率的下降,因而会使地表吸收更多的能量.其效果可能会抵消由于极地沙漠地带向极地苔原带的的转化,或极地苔原带向极地森林带的转化,而造成的植被总净初级生产力碳沉降能力的提高而引起的负反馈.永久冻土带的退化对示踪气体动力学有着很复杂的影响.在不连续的永久冻土带地区,升温将会导致其完全消失.依赖于当地水文条件,温室气体排放可能由于气候环境变的干燥或湿润而使得其通量有所变化.总的来说,影响反馈的各种过程复杂的相互作用,以及这些过程随着时间地点的变化,加之数据的缺乏,又会在陆地生态系统气候变化对气候系统产生反馈作用的净效应估计上,产生许多的不确定性,这种不确定性将会影响到一些反馈的大小和方向.     

Crypsis versus intimidation—anti-predation defence in three closely related butterflies

Butterflies that hibernate exhibit particularly efficient defence against predation. A first line of defence is crypsis, and most hibernating butterflies are leaf mimics. When discovered, some species have a second line of defence; the peacock, I. io, when attacked by a predator flicks its wings open exposing large eyespots and performs an intimidating threat display. Here we test the hypothesis that butterflies relying solely on leaf mimicking and butterflies with an intimidating wing pattern, when attacked, exhibit different behavioural suites—because leaf mimicking is best implemented by immobility, whereas intimidating coloration is best implemented by intimidating behaviour. In laboratory experiments blue tits, Parus caeruleus, were allowed 40 min to attack single individuals of three species of butterfly: one relying solely on crypsis, the comma, Polygonia c-album; one relying on intimidating wing pattern in addition to crypsis, the peacock; and one intermediate species, the small tortoiseshell Aglais urticae. The results are in accordance with expectations and demonstrate that: (1) birds take longer to discover the leaf mimicking species, the comma, than the tortoiseshell and the peacock; (2) the comma remained motionless throughout experimental trials but small tortoiseshells and peacocks flicked their wings when attacked; (3) the most intimidating butterfly, the peacock, started flicking its wings at a greater distance from the attacking bird than the small tortoiseshell; and (4) the intimidating pattern and behaviour of peacocks was effective—when discovered, all peacocks survived interactions with blue tits, whereas only 22% of commas and 8% of small tortoiseshells survived.     

A submodel for anaerobic mud-water exchange of phosphate

A submodel for anaerobic mud-water exchange of phosphate is obtained from experiments in the laboratory. Phosphorus in the sediment can be divided into exchangeable and non-exchangeable phosphorus. The exchangeable phosphorus is decomposed in accordance with a first-order reaction. The phosphorus moves, after the decomposition process, from the interstitial water to the water phase, in accordance with a diffusion expression. The yearly increase of the sediment was determined by means of the lead concentration as a function of the depth.     

Modelling the global cycle of carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus and their influence on the global heat balance

A model for the accumulation of CO₂ in the atmosphere has been set up, taking into consideration: (1) the global cycle of nitrogen and phosphorus: (2) the CO₂-diffusion in the oceans with means of a multilayer ?ea model; (3) the ability of the oceans to take up CO₂; (4) the influence of the CO₂-concentrations and of the temperature on this ability; (5) different growth rates for the consumption of fossil fuel including logistic growth; (6) the natural climatic variation.It is shown to be essential to include all these factors. The inclusion of factors (4) and (6), which have been omitted in many previous publications, is very essential to the model.     

Biomagnification of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) studied in pike (Esox lucius), perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus) from the Baltic Sea

Pike, perch and roach from rural waters of the Baltic Sea were investigated for possible biomagnification of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). For this we used data on delta15N, weight and sex of the fish. We were able to separate body size effects from trophic position effects on biomagnification. Both these parameters lead to biomagnification of PCBs and PBDEs. All investigated PCBs (tri- to deca-CBs) biomagnify and the biomagnification potential is positively correlated with hydrophobicity up to log Kow 8.18. Tri- to hepta-BDEs also biomagnify but showed a maximum biomagnification for the penta-BDEs (log Kow 6.46-6.97). The biomagnification of hexa- to hepta-PBDEs was negatively correlated with degree of bromination, likely due to large molecular size or high molecular weight (644-959 Da). Octa-, nona- and deca-BDEs did not biomagnify but were found in two (octa-BDE) and three (nona- and deca-BDEs) of the species, respectively. Increased size of pike is correlated with increased lipid weight based PCB and PBDE concentrations in males but not in females and mean PCB and PBDE concentrations in males are generally higher than in females. For the least hydrophobic PCBs, no sex difference is observed, probably as a consequence of faster clearance of these substances over the gills, making the spawning clearance of PCBs and PBDEs of lesser relative importance.     

An object-oriented software for fate and exposure assessments

The model system CemoS¹ (Chemical Exposure Model System) was developed for the exposure prediction of hazardous chemicals released to the environment. Eight different models were implemented involving chemicals fate simulation in air, water, soil and plants after continuous or single emissions from point and diffuse sources. Scenario studies are supported by a substance and an environmental data base. All input data are checked on their plausibility. Substance and environmental process estimation functions facilitate generic model calculations. CemoS is implemented in a modular structure using object-oriented programming. e-mail: cemos@aphrodite.mathematik.uni-osnabrueck.de     

Effects on the function of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Historically, the function of Arctic ecosystems in terms of cycles of nutrients and carbon has led to low levels of primary production and exchanges of energy, water and greenhouse gases have led to low local and regional cooling. Sequestration of carbon from atmospheric CO2, in extensive, cold organic soils and the high albedo from low, snow-covered vegetation have had impacts on regional climate. However, many aspects of the functioning of Arctic ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate and its impacts on biodiversity. The current Arctic climate results in slow rates of organic matter decomposition. Arctic ecosystems therefore tend to accumulate organic matter and elements despite low inputs. As a result, soil-available elements like nitrogen and phosphorus are key limitations to increases in carbon fixation and further biomass and organic matter accumulation. Climate warming is expected to increase carbon and element turnover, particularly in soils, which may lead to initial losses of elements but eventual, slow recovery. Individual species and species diversity have clear impacts on element inputs and retention in Arctic ecosystems. Effects of increased CO2 and UV-B on whole ecosystems, on the other hand, are likely to be small although effects on plant tissue chemisty, decomposition and nitrogen fixation may become important in the long-term. Cycling of carbon in trace gas form is mainly as CO2 and CH4. Most carbon loss is in the form of CO2, produced by both plants and soil biota. Carbon emissions as methane from wet and moist tundra ecosystems are about 5% of emissions as CO2 and are responsive to warming in the absence of any other changes. Winter processes and vegetation type also affect CH4 emissions as well as exchanges of energy between biosphere and atmosphere. Arctic ecosystems exhibit the largest seasonal changes in energy exchange of any terrestrial ecosystem because of the large changes in albedo from late winter, when snow reflects most incoming radiation, to summer when the ecosystem absorbs most incoming radiation. Vegetation profoundly influences the water and energy exchange of Arctic ecosystems. Albedo during the period of snow cover declines from tundra to forest tundra to deciduous forest to evergreen forest. Shrubs and trees increase snow depth which in turn increases winter soil temperatures. Future changes in vegetation driven by climate change are therefore, very likely to profoundly alter regional climate.