Temporal patterns of populations in a warming world: a modelling framework

In this paper, we present an approach for describing the environmentally induced temporal pattern of structured populations by partial integro-differential equations. Populations are structured according to size or stage. Growth, energy allocation and stage transitions are affected by environmental conditions of which temperature, photoperiod, water depth and food supply were taken into account. The resulting modelling framework was applied to describe, analyse and predict alterations in populations with continuous development, populations with distinct state structures and interacting populations. Our exemplary applications consider populations of freshwater Amphipoda, Isopoda and Odonata. The model was capable of simulating life cycle alterations in dependence on temperature in interaction with other environmental factors: (1) population dynamics, (2) seasonal regulation, (3) water depth-dependent dispersal, (4) intraguild predation and (5) consumer-resource dynamics.     

Changing priorities: the effect of pre-migratory fattening on the trade-off between foraging and vigilance

Summary Many birds accumulate fat reserves prior to departure on long distance migration. Since there will be an increased food requirement during the pre-migratory period, it is to be expected that more time will be invested in foraging, at the expense of other activities. The allocation of time to anti-predatory behavior in migratory ruddy turnstones (adults) was found to decrease prior to migration (Fig. 1); non-migratory individuals (juveniles) showed no decrease over the same time period (Fig. 2). This is interpreted as a change in the optimal adult behavior, the cost of a reduced rate of resource accumulation outweighing the additional risk of predation which results from the decrease in vigilance.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Urban vulnerability and displacement: a review of current issues

Urban displacement is frequently portrayed as a new and unfamiliar dilemma for the humanitarian sector, yet broad awareness of its characteristics and challenges has been developing since the 1970s. In the past decade, however, there has been greater attention to, and recognition of, the implications of rapid urbanisation in the developing world. This has led to some policy development and a mounting body of NGO (non-governmental organisation) and think-tank literature on the topic. Assuming displacement to be a key lens on urban vulnerability more broadly, this paper presents an overview of the historical development of debates on urban displacement since the 1970s. Drawing examples from the contributions in this special issue of Disasters, as well as from other sources of information on recent humanitarian responses in various contexts, it assesses the ramifications of urban vulnerability for humanitarian practitioners. The paper contends that the humanitarian sector has failed to galvanise on the issue, and has struggled therefore to employ existing knowledge and to adapt practice.     

Spatially Disaggregated Inventories of Soil NO and N2O Emissions for Great Britain

Estimates of soil N₂O and NOemissions at regional and country scales arehighly uncertain, because the most widely usedmethodologies are based on few data, they do notinclude all sources and do not account forspatial and seasonal variability. To improveunderstanding of the spatial distribution of soilNO and N₂O emissions we have developedsimple multi-linear regression models based onpublished field studies from temperate climates.The models were applied to create spatialinventories at the 5 km² scale of soil NOand N₂O emissions for Great Britain. The N₂O regression model described soilN₂O emissions as a function of soil N input,soil water content, soil temperature and land useand provided an annual N₂O emission of 128 kt N₂O-N yr^-1. Emission rates largerthan 12 kg N₂O-N ha^-1 yr^-1 werecalculated for the high rainfall grassland areasin the west of Great Britain.Soil NO emissions were calculated using tworegression models, which described NO emissionsas a function of soil N input with and without afunction for the water filled pore space. Thetotal annual emissions from both methods, 66 and7 kt NO-N yr^-1, respectively, span the rangeof previous estimates for Great Britain.     

Levels and patterns of persistent organochlorines in minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) stocks from the North Atlantic and European Arctic

Regional variation in PCBs and organochlorine (OC) pesticide concentrations was examined using the blubber of 155 minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) sampled in seven regions in the North Atlantic and European Arctic, including western and southeastern Greenland, the Norwegian Sea, the North Sea and the Barents Sea. The levels and relative proportions of OCs were also used to examine the boundaries for North Atlantic minke whale stocks previously defined by the International Whaling Commission (IWC). Concentrations of major OC groups (sigmaPCB, 89.1-22 800 ng/g lipid; sigmaDDT, 65.3-6280 ng/g lipid; sigmaCHL, 33.3-2110 ng/g lipid) generally increased from west to east, while HCH concentrations (sigmaHCH, < 1-497 ng/g lipid) showed the opposite trend. Statistical comparison between six regions using sex-adjusted least squared mean concentrations showed that minke whales from the Barents Sea had significantly higher concentrations of EPCBs than those from the Vestfjorden/Lofoten, the North Sea, and west Svalbard, as well as significantly higher sigmaDDT concentrations compared to west Greenland animals. The differences in concentrations suggest that west and southeast Greenland minkes may represent one group of whales, which are distinct from both the Jan Mayen minkes and those from other IWC defined stocks in northern European waters. Principal components analysis using proportions of 71 PCB congeners and 20 OC pesticides (of total OCs) did not reveal any major differences among groups although minkes from the North Sea were distinguished from those from Greenland waters by higher loadings of more highly chlorinated PCBs and recalcitrant OC pesticides. The general similarity in mean levels of sigmaPCBs, sigmaDDT and sigmaCHL, as well as mean principal components analysis scores, among minkes sampled at Jan Mayen, Svalbard, Vestfjorden/Lofoten, the North Sea and the Barents Sea suggests that the whales are quite mobile and may feed in multiple areas within the northeastern Atlantic.     

Toxicity of mixtures of phosphamidon and methidathion to lobsters (Homarusamericanus)

The joint toxicity of mixtures of phosphamidon and methidathion to adult lobsters ($\text{Homarus}$$\text{americanus}$) is greater than additive in tests with the combined 48-h toxicity unit of the mixtures totalling 0.25, 0.5 and 1.0 units. The largest magnification factor for greater than additive toxicity occurred where phosphamidon and methidathion contributed to the total toxicity unit in a ratio of 1:1.5 and was progressively smaller for ratios of 1:4.4 and 2:1.     

A comprehensive evaluation of two sample treatment procedures for the determination of emerging and historical halogenated flame retardants in biota

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Two different sample preparation protocols for the determination of 37 emerging and historical halogenated flame retardants (HFRs) in marine tissues...     

Adolescent driving: Characteristics associated with single-vehicle and injury crashes

The high motor-vehicle crash rate of young drivers may be attributed to both driving inexperience and a greater tendency to engage in risk-taking behavior. This study examines risk-taking behavior, as indicated by single-vehicle crashes and injury crashes, and factors associated with these behaviors, based on measures of demographic, psychosocial, and substance use obtained from high school senior questionnaires. Because previous work indicated different predictors for young men and young women, separate logistic regression analyses were conducted. For young women, propensity toward cigarette use was associated with higher rates of single-vehicle crashes; while race, alcohol misuse, and friends' involvement with alcohol and marijuana were associated with injury crashes. For young men, availability of substances, driving frequency, alcohol misuse, and propensity toward marijuana use were associated with higher rates of single-vehicle crashes. Young men's living situation, availability of substances, and marijuana use were related to injury crashes.