Comparing hiking,mountain biking and horse riding impacts on vegetation and soils in Australia and the United States of America

Hiking, horse riding and mountain biking are popular in protected areas in Australia and the United States of America. To help inform the often contentious deliberations about use of protected areas for these three types of activities, we review recreation ecology research in both countries. Many impacts on vegetation, soils and trails are similar for the three activities, although there can be differences in severity. Impacts include damage to existing trails, soil erosion, compaction and nutrification, changes in hydrology, trail widening, exposure of roots, rocks and bedrock. There can be damage to plants including reduction in vegetation height and biomass, changes in species composition, creation of informal trails and the spread of weeds and plant pathogens. Due to differences in evolutionary history, impacts on soil and vegetation can be greater in Australia than in the USA. There are specific social and biophysical impacts of horses such as those associated with manure and urine, grazing and the construction and use of tethering yards and fences. Mountain bike specific impacts include soil and vegetation damage from skidding and the construction of unauthorised trails, jumps, bridges and other trail technical features. There are gaps in the current research that should be filled by additional research: (1) on horse and mountain bike impacts to complement those on hiking. The methods used need to reflect patterns of actual usage and be suitable for robust statistical analysis; (2) that directly compares types and severity of impacts among activities; and (3) on the potential for each activity to contribute to the spread of weeds and plant pathogens. Additional research will assist managers and users of protected areas in understanding the relative impacts of these activities, and better ways to manage them. It may not quell the debates among users, managers and conservationists, but it will help put it on a more scientific footing.     

Prediction of maximum daily ozone level using combined neural network and statistical characteristics

Analysis and forecasting of air quality parameters are important topics of atmospheric and environmental research today due to the health impact caused by air pollution. As one of major pollutants, ozone, especially ground level ozone, is responsible for various adverse effects on both human being and foliage. Therefore, prediction of ambient ozone levels in certain environment, especially the ground ozone level in densely urban areas, is of great importance to urban air quality and city image. To date, though several ozone prediction models have been established, there is still a need for more accurate models to develop effective warning strategies. The development of such models is difficult because the meteorological variables and the photochemical reactions involved in ozone formation are very complex. The present work aims to develop an improved neural network model, which combines the adaptive radial basis function (ARBF) network with statistical characteristics of ozone in selected specific areas, and is used to predict the daily maximum ozone concentration level. The improved method is trained and testified by hourly time series data collected at three air pollutant-monitoring stations in Hong Kong during 1999 and 2000. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and the reliability of the proposed method.     

Carbonyl emissions from commercial cooking sources in Hong Kong

Cooking fumes are an important carbonyl emission source, especially in a highly urbanized city, such as Hong Kong. Cooking exhaust from 15 commercial kitchens of a variety of cooking styles was sampled and analyzed for a suite of 13 carbonyl compounds. Carbonyl compositions were varied among the different cooking styles. Formaldehyde was generally the most abundant carbonyl, and its contribution to the total carbonyl amount on a molar basis ranged from 12 to 60%. Acrolein was also found to be an abundant carbonyl in the cooking exhaust. The highest contribution by acrolein to the total carbonyls was found to be 30% in the exhaust of a western-style steak restaurant. Long-chain saturated carbonyls, that is, heptanal, octanal, and nonanal, accounted for a significant fraction (> 40%) of the total carbonyls in kitchens that always used heated cooking oils. Two dicarbonyls, glyoxal and methylglyoxal, had a various presence in the cooking emissions, ranging from negligible to 10%. The presence of benzaldehyde and tolualdehyde was mostly negligible in the sampled kitchen exhaust. Annual emission rates of both individual carbonyls and total carbonyls were estimated for various types of commercial kitchens. Local-style fast-food shops contributed the highest total carbonyl emissions per year mainly because of the large number of this kind of restaurant in Hong Kong. The citywide annual emission rates of the three most toxic carbonyls, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acrolein, were estimated assuming that the limited number of sampled restaurants were representative of the average restaurants. Such estimates of carbonyl emission rates were comparable to the estimated carbonyl emissions from vehicular sources, suggesting the importance of commercial cooking as a source for carbonyls in Hong Kong.     

Reach and messages of the world's largest ivory burn

Recent increases in ivory poaching have depressed African elephant populations. Successful enforcement has led to ivory stockpiling. Stockpile destruction is becoming increasingly popular, and most destruction has occurred in the last 5 years. Ivory destruction is intended to send a strong message against ivory consumption, both in promoting a taboo on ivory use and catalyzing policy change. However, there has been no effort to establish the distribution and extent of media reporting on ivory destruction events globally. We analyzed media coverage of the largest ivory destruction event in history (Kenya, 30 April 2016) across 11 nation states connected to ivory trade. We used an online‐media crawling tool to search online media outlets and subjected 5 of the largest print newspapers (by circulation) in 5 nations of interest to content analysis. Most online news on the ivory burn came from the United States (81% of 1944 articles), whereas most of the print news articles came from Kenya (61% of 157 articles). Eighty‐six to 97% of all online articles reported the burn as a positive conservation action, whereas 4–50% discussed ivory burning as having a negative impact on elephant conservation. Most articles discussed law enforcement and trade bans as effective for elephant conservation. There was more relative search interest globally in the 2016 Kenyan ivory burn than any other burn in 5 years. Ours is the first attempt to track the reach of media coverage relative to an ivory burn and provides a case study in tracking the effects of a conservation‐marketing event.     

Rate constants of dichloride radical anion reactions with molecules of environmental interest in aqueous solution: a review

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Natural waters, water droplets in the air at coastal regions and wastewaters usually contain chloride ions (Cl-) in relatively high concentrations in...     

Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks

Increased reliance on the Internet for critical infrastructure and the global nature of supply chains provides an opportunity for adversaries to leverage dependencies and gain access to vital infrastructure. Traditional approaches to assessing risk in the cyber domain, including estimation of impacts, fall short due to uncertainty in how interconnected systems react to cyber attack. This paper describes a method to represent the pathways of disruption propagation, evaluate the macroeconomic impact of cyber threats and aid in selecting among various cybersecurity policies. Based on state of the art agent-based modeling, multicriteria decision analysis, and macroeconomic modeling tools, this framework provides dynamic macroeconomic, demographic and fiscal insights regarding shocks caused by cyber attacks to the regional economy over time. The interlinkage of these models will provide a robust and adaptive system that allows policy makers to evaluate complex issues such as cybersecurity threats and their impacts on the geopolitical, social, environmental, and macroeconomic landscape.     

Modeling protected species as an undesirable output: the case of sea turtle interactions in Hawaii's longline fishery

Interactions with sea turtles have occurred at an alarming rate in swordfish longlining in Hawaii in recent years and various regulations have been put forward to protect sea turtles. In order to understand the cost of reducing sea turtle interactions, methods have been developed to derive the shadow price of sea turtle bycatch based on fisher's welfare loss from a specific regulation. This paper illustrates an alternative method of calculating temporal and trip-specific cost of sea turtle bycatch reduction. The advantages of this method lie in the computation of shadow price without assuming specific regulation implementation and its relatively modest data requirement. A parametric output distance function is used to simultaneously model desirable and undesirable catches. Using the duality argument, the revenue-related shadow price of sea turtle bycatch can be derived from the estimated distance function. Average shadow price of sea turtle bycatch for the period 1991-1999 is estimated to be US $30873 in 1991 dollars. Average shadow prices of sea turtle bycatch by trip characteristics, such as fishing year, trip type and location are also estimated. Such information can be useful for policy makers to analyze tradeoffs and make appropriate policy decisions.     

Testing for thresholds of ecosystem collapse in seagrass meadows

Although the public desire for healthy environments is clear‐cut, the science and management of ecosystem health has not been as simple. Ecological systems can be dynamic and can shift abruptly from one ecosystem state to another. Such unpredictable shifts result when ecological thresholds are crossed; that is, small cumulative increases in an environmental stressor drive a much greater change than could be predicted from linear effects, suggesting an unforeseen tipping point is crossed. In coastal waters, broad‐scale seagrass loss often occurs as a sudden event associated with human‐driven nutrient enrichment (eutrophication). We tested whether the response of seagrass ecosystems to coastal nutrient enrichment is subject to a threshold effect. We exposed seagrass plots to different levels of nutrient enrichment (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) for 10 months and measured net production. Seagrass response exhibited a threshold pattern when nutrient enrichment exceeded moderate levels: there was an abrupt and large shift from positive to negative net leaf production (from approximately 0.04 leaf production to 0.02 leaf loss per day). Epiphyte load also increased as nutrient enrichment increased, which may have driven the shift in leaf production. Inadvertently crossing such thresholds, as can occur through ineffective management of land‐derived inputs such as wastewater and stormwater runoff along urbanized coasts, may account for the widely observed sudden loss of seagrass meadows. Identification of tipping points may improve not only adaptive‐management monitoring that seeks to avoid threshold effects, but also restoration approaches in systems that have crossed them.     

The short-term effects of a routine poisoning campaign on the movements and detectability of a social top-predator

Top-predators can be important components of resilient ecosystems, but they are still controlled in many places to mitigate a variety of economic, environmental and/or social impacts. Lethal control is often achieved through the broad-scale application of poisoned baits. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of such lethal control on subsequent movements and behaviour of survivors is an important pre-requisite for interpreting the efficacy and ecological outcomes of top-predator control. In this study, we use GPS tracking collars to investigate the fine-scale and short-term movements of dingoes (Canis lupus dingo and other wild dogs) in response to a routine poison-baiting program as an example of how a common, social top-predator can respond (behaviourally) to moderate levels of population reduction. We found no consistent control-induced differences in home range size or location, daily distance travelled, speed of travel, temporal activity patterns or road/trail usage for the seven surviving dingoes we monitored immediately before and after a typical lethal control event. These data suggest that the spatial behaviour of surviving dingoes was not altered in ways likely to affect their detectability, and if control-induced changes in dingoes' ecological function did occur, these may not be related to altered spatial behaviour or movement patterns.     

Extinction in a hyperdiverse endemic Hawaiian land snail family and implications for the underestimation of invertebrate extinction

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List includes 832 species listed as extinct since 1600, a minuscule fraction of total biodiversity. This extinction rate is of the same order of magnitude as the background rate and has been used to downplay the biodiversity crisis. Invertebrates comprise 99% of biodiversity, yet the status of a negligible number has been assessed. We assessed extinction in the Hawaiian land snail family Amastridae (325 species, IUCN lists 33 as extinct). We did not use the stringent IUCN criteria, by which most invertebrates would be considered data deficient, but a more realistic approach comparing historical collections with modern surveys and expert knowledge. Of the 325 Amastridae species, 43 were originally described as fossil or subfossil and were assumed to be extinct. Of the remaining 282, we evaluated 88 as extinct and 15 as extant and determined that 179 species had insufficient evidence of extinction (though most are probably extinct). Results of statistical assessment of extinction probabilities were consistent with our expert evaluations of levels of extinction. Modeling various extinction scenarios yielded extinction rates of 0.4‐14.0% of the amastrid fauna per decade. The true rate of amastrid extinction has not been constant; generally, it has increased over time. We estimated a realistic average extinction rate as approximately 5%/decade since the first half of the nineteenth century. In general, oceanic island biotas are especially susceptible to extinction and global rate generalizations do not reflect this. Our approach could be used for other invertebrates, especially those with restricted ranges (e.g., islands), and such an approach may be the only way to evaluate invertebrates rapidly enough to keep up with ongoing extinction.