The complexity of failure: Implications of complexity theory for safety investigations

Complexity theory suggests that we see performance as an emergent property, the result of complex interactions and relationships. This can clash, however, with what stakeholders see as legitimate and normal in accident investigations. When systems fail, it is still common to blame components (e.g. human errors) and when they succeed spectacularly, to think in terms of individual heroism (e.g. the A320 Hudson River landing). In this paper, we lay out the contrast between a Newtonian analysis of failure that can be recognized in many efforts at safety analysis and improvement. It makes particular assumptions about the relationship between cause and effect, foreseeability of harm, time-reversibility and the ability to produce the “true story” of an accident. With inspiration from complexity theory, failures are seen as an emergent property of complexity. We explore what that means for safety science and work towards a post-Newtonian analysis of failure in complex systems.     

Divergent composition but similar function of soil food webs of individual plants: plant species and community effects

Soils are extremely rich in biodiversity, and soil organisms play pivotal roles in supporting terrestrial life, but the role that individual plants and plant communities play in influencing the diversity and functioning of soil food webs remains highly debated. Plants, as primary producers and providers of resources to the soil food web, are of vital importance for the composition, structure, and functioning of soil communities. However, whether natural soil food webs that are completely open to immigration and emigration differ underneath individual plants remains unknown. In a biodiversity restoration experiment we first compared the soil nematode communities of 228 individual plants belonging to eight herbaceous species. We included grass, leguminous, and non-leguminous species. Each individual plant grew intermingled with other species, but all plant species had a different nematode community. Moreover, nematode communities were more similar when plant individuals were growing in the same as compared to different plant communities, and these effects were most apparent for the groups of bacterivorous, carnivorous, and omnivorous nematodes. Subsequently, we analyzed the composition, structure, and functioning of the complete soil food webs of 58 individual plants, belonging to two of the plant species, Lotus corniculatus (Fabaceae) and Plantago lanceolata (Plantaginaceae). We isolated and identified more than 150 taxa/groups of soil organisms. The soil community composition and structure of the entire food webs were influenced both by the species identity of the plant individual and the surrounding plant community. Unexpectedly, plant identity had the strongest effects on decomposing soil organisms, widely believed to be generalist feeders. In contrast, quantitative food web modeling showed that the composition of the plant community influenced nitrogen mineralization under individual plants, but that plant species identity did not affect nitrogen or carbon mineralization or food web stability. Hence, the composition and structure of entire soil food webs vary at the scale of individual plants and are strongly influenced by the species identity of the plant. However, the ecosystem functions these food webs provide are determined by the identity of the entire plant community.     

Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area,The Netherlands: enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk communication affects citizens’ risk perceptions and responses. The study is situated in a delta area with substantial geographic variations in the occurrence and potential impact of flood risk, which has led to initiatives to make the area more “climate proof.” We developed a research model that examines individual differences in processing information about climate change related flood risk, based on the postulate that individuals often make an implicit trade-off between motivation to know “what is real” and motivation to maintain prior beliefs. A field experiment, embedded in a survey (n = 1887), sought to test out how the participants responded to risk frames in which a story on flood was either or not combined with climate change information. The results show that it was possible to increase the participants’ local climate risk perception in combination with increased motivation for flood damage prevention, despite a certain level of climate change skepticism. A general implication of our study is that relevant and diagnostic information about local climate-related flood risks can stimulate citizens’ need to know “what’s real” and their willingness to take responsibility for preparedness.     

Advancing Energy Access Modelling with Geographic Information System Data

One of the main goals in pursuing sustainable development is to provide universal access to modern energy services, notably through the use of off-grid renewable energy technologies. To date, integrated assessment models (IAMs) poorly address energy access targets. In the context of research dedicated to energy scenarios and climate change mitigation in Africa, we attempt to advance the representation of energy access in one such IAM by using GIS data. In a case study for Ethiopia with the TIAM-ECN model, we demonstrate that by enriching an IAM with information derived from GIS databases, insights are obtained that better capture the dynamics of energy access developments, in comparison to conventional IAM analysis of energy technology deployment pathways. When duly accounting for the geographical spread in demography and technology costs in a developing country, we find that many people may gain access to electricity in remote areas thanks to the availability of affordable off-grid power production options that render expensive grid extensions unnecessary. This effect is not explicitly accounted for in most traditional IAMs. By the middle of the century, off-grid technologies could provide affordable electricity to 70% of the Ethiopian population, based almost entirely on renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydropower.     

Olfaction in the female sheep botfly

The nasal botfly Oestrus ovis (Diptera, Cyclorrhapha: Oestridae) is a myiasis-causing insect species, which affects the health of sheep, goats and humans. Gravid females are viviparous and larviposit into the animal’s nostrils. Host-searching and larvipositing flies are visually guided and influenced by climatic conditions, whereas olfaction seemed to play no role in this process. However, here, we show that the antennae of adult O. ovis female flies are relatively small but well developed and inhabited by several types of olfactory sensilla. Further, we show that the antennal lobes of this species receive input from antennal afferents and consist of a clearly defined glomerular organisation. We also give the first evidence of the fly’s ability to detect several synthetic odour compounds. Our findings provide a morpho-functional basis for future investigations on olfactory-mediated behaviour of this insect pest.     

The influence of field-scale heterogeneity on the infiltration and entrapment of dense nonaqueous phase liquids in saturated formations

Numerical simulations are used for the systematic exploration of the migration and entrapment of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in heterogeneous formations. Ensembles of realizations of random, spatially correlated permeability fields are generated and employed in model simulations of a spill event. Statistical techniques are then used to quantify the sensitivity of model predictions to input parameters, thereby identifying the parameters or processes that may be of primary importance in the determination of organic liquid distributions in heterogeneous systems. Results of the study indicate that the most critical factors in modeling organic entrapment include the spill release rate, reliable estimates of the mean, variance, and vertical correlation scale of the formation permeability, and an accurate representation of the correlation between the capillary pressure–saturation function and the permeability. In contrast, the hydraulic gradient and cross-correlation of residual saturations with permeabilities are found to have only minor influence on organic liquid distributions in such heterogeneous formations.     

An interdisciplinary physical-chemical approach for characterization of arsenic in a calciner residue dump in Cornwall (UK)

During the later stages of hard-rock mining in Cornwall, UK, widespread processing and refining of arsenic in purpose-built calciners resulted in severe, localized contamination of soils with arsenic. Several physical-chemical techniques were applied to characterize arsenic in a calciner residue dump: X-ray powder diffraction (XRD), sequential extraction combined with hyphenated speciation methods, and X-ray absorption spectroscopic (XAS) methods such as XANES (X-ray absorption near-edge structure) and EXAFS (extended X-ray absorption fine structure). Arsenic was predominantly present in pentavalent form, bound to amorphous or poorly-crystalline hydrous oxides of Fe (probably alpha-hematite). A small amount of a non-classified crystalline iron arsenate phase was found, viz. Fe2(As(AsO4)3). There was also evidence for the presence of some arsenate bound to quartz (alpha-SiO2). The overall results make us believe that the normally assumed relative safety, from a mobility point of view, is questionable since only a small fraction of arsenic is found in a crystalline iron arsenate form.