Daily Updating of Operational Statistical Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts for the western U.S.1

Abstract: Official seasonal water supply outlooks for the western United States are typically produced once per month from January through June. The Natural Resources Conservation Service has developed a new outlook product that allows the automated production and delivery of this type of forecast year‐round and with a daily update frequency. Daily snow water equivalent and water year‐to‐date precipitation data from multiple SNOTEL stations are combined using a statistical forecasting technique (“Z‐Score Regression”) to predict seasonal streamflow volume. The skill of these forecasts vs. lead‐time is comparable to the official published outlooks. The new product matches the intra‐monthly trends in the official forecasts until the target period is partly in the past, when the official forecasts begin to use information about observed streamflows to date. Geographically, the patterns of skill also match the official outlooks, with highest skill in Idaho and southern Colorado and lowest skill in the Colorado Front Range, eastern New Mexico, and eastern Montana. The direct and frequent delivery of objective guidance to users is a significant new development in the operational hydrologic seasonal forecasting community.     

Leaching from MSWI bottom ash: evaluation of non-equilibrium in column percolation experiments

Impacts of non-equilibrium on results of percolation experiments on municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) bottom ash were investigated. Three parallel column experiments were performed: two columns with undisturbed percolation and one column with two sets of 1-month-long flow interruptions applied at liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratios of L/S 2L/kg and 12L/kg, respectively. Concentrations of Na, K, Cl(-), Ca, Si, SO(4)(2-), Al, Cu, Ni, Mo, Ba, Pb, Zn, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were monitored throughout the entire leaching period; geochemical modeling was used to identify non-equilibrium-induced changes in the solubility control. Despite both physical and chemical non-equilibrium, the columns were found to provide adequate information for readily soluble compounds (i.e., Na, Cl(-), and K) and solubility-controlled elements (i.e., Ca, SO(4)(2-), Ba, Si, Al, Zn, and Pb). The leaching of Cu and Ni was shown to depend strongly on DOC leaching, which was likely affected by physical non-equilibrium during flow interruptions. Consequently, the leaching of Cu and Ni in the undisturbed columns was shown to be by about one order of magnitude lower compared with the interrupted column. The results indicate that the leaching of DOC-related metals in laboratory column experiments may be considerably underestimated compared with full-scale scenarios in which the impacts from non-equilibrium may be significantly lower. The leaching of Mo (or MoO(4)(2-)) may be controlled solely by its availability in the mobile zone, which in turn appeared to be controlled by diffusion from the stagnant zone; no Mo controlling minerals were predicted by the geochemical modeling.     

Occupational embeddedness and job performance

While researchers have recently focused their attention on organizational embeddedness, occupational embeddedness has received little theoretical and empirical attention. Using multisource data on 162 employees in multiple jobs and organizations, we found that occupational embeddedness is positively related to both task performance and creativity and is negatively related to counterproductive work behavior, even after controlling for the effects of organizational embeddedness. In addition, we found that trait affect moderated the relationships of occupational embeddedness to job performance. Occupational embeddedness was more strongly related to counterproductive work behavior when trait negative affect was high, while occupational embeddedness was more strongly related to both citizenship behavior and creativity when trait positive affect was high. Results also indicated that the various components of occupational embeddedness had different effects on job outcomes. Fit had a strong positive effect on core task performance, links had a positive effect on creativity, and sacrifice had a small positive effect on citizenship behavior. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for future research and management practice. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of the exposure time on the value of a manSievert averted

The basis of the manSievert as a unit for collective radiation dose is discussed and previous recommendations are considered for how much should be spent to avert a collective dose of 1 manSv. New calculations are given using the J-value method. It is shown that the value to be assigned to averting a manSievert depends on the duration of averted exposure as well as on the net discount rate and the loan rate thought to be appropriate. Different figures will result depending on whether the exposed group consists of workers or the general public. The variation with dose duration is so large that it is not possible to recommend a single figure for the value of a manSievert. Instead, tables are given at two conservative, loan and net discount rates for the value of a manSievert as a function of exposure time. The base data for the J-value method need to be updated annually, and this means that the values given in the tables will increase over time as people live longer and become richer.     

Dust explosions: How should the influence of humidity be taken into account?

In this work, the influence of humidity on dust explosions of metallic (aluminium) and organic materials (icing sugar, polyethylene and magnesium stearate) has been studied. The impact of pre-humidification of powders on their ignition sensitivity, their volume resistivity and charge decay time has been assessed. The influence of humidity on explosion severity has also been studied by two methods: on the one hand, the dust sample was stored in a controlled workstation at constant relative humidity; on the other hand, the dry dust was dispersed in a humidity controlled atmosphere in the vessel.As expected, the effect of humidity strongly depends on the chemical nature of the particles. Experiments on powders volume resistivity and charge decay time have shown typical trends but have especially pointed out the inadequacy of some standards. Inhibition phenomena have been verified for polyethylene and magnesium stearate, whereas both inhibition and promotion have been observed for icing sugar and could be explained by an evolution of sucrose structure. Dry aluminium dust explosions in humid atmosphere show that water vapour inerts the explosion. However, when aluminium is stored at controlled humidity, the maximum rise of pressure rate increases with the water content, which is probably due to hydrogen generation.     

Wind modeling of Chihuahuan Desert dust outbreaks

The Chihuahuan Desert region of North America is a significant source of mineral aerosols in the Western Hemisphere, and Chihuahuan Desert dust storms frequently impact the Paso del Norte (El Paso, USA/Ciudad Juarez, Mexico) metropolitan area. A statistical analysis of HYSPLIT back trajectory residence times evaluated airflow into El Paso on all days and on days with synoptic (non-convective) dust events in 2001–2005. The incremental probability—a measure of the areas most likely to have been traversed by air masses arriving at El Paso during dusty days—was only strongly positively associated with the region west–southwest of the city, a zone of known dust source areas. Focused case studies were made of major dust events on 15 April and 15 December 2003. Trajectories approached the surface and MM5 (NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model) wind speeds increased at locations consistent with dust sources observed in satellite imagery on those dates. Back trajectory and model analyses suggested that surface cyclones adjacent to the Chihuahuan Desert were associated with the extreme dust events, consistent with previous studies of dust storms in the Southern High Plains to the northeast. The recognition of these meteorological patterns serves as a forecast aid for prediction of dust events likely to impact the Paso del Norte.     

Using Earth Observation to update a Natura 2000 habitat map for a wetland in Greece

The European Habitats Directive 92/43/EEC has defined the need for the conservation of habitats and species with the adoption of appropriate measures. Within the Natura 2000 ecological network of special areas of conservation, natural habitats will be monitored to ensure the maintenance or restoration of their composition, structure and extent. The European Space Agency's GlobWetland project has provided remotely sensed products for several Ramsar wetlands worldwide, such as detailed land cover-land use, water cycle and inundated vegetation maps. This paper presents the development and testing of an operational methodology for updating a wetland's habitat map using the GlobWetland products, and the evaluation of the extent to which GlobWetland products have contributed to the habitat map updating. The developed methodology incorporated both automated and analyst-supervised techniques to photo-interpret, delineate, refine, and evaluate the updated habitat polygons. The developed methodology was proven successful in its application to the wetland complex of the Axios-Loudias-Aliakmon delta (Greece). The resulting habitat map met the European and Greek national requirements. Results revealed that GlobWetland products were a valuable contribution, but source data (enhanced satellite images) were necessary to discriminate spectrally similar habitats. Finally, the developed methodology can be modified for original habitat mapping.     

Simulating Direct and Indirect Damages to Commercial Fisheries from Marine Sand Mining: A Case Study in Korea

Rapid growth in marine sand mining for construction and other uses poses environmental challenges to coastal nations virtually worldwide. Yet the development of management policies, such as a system of fees imposed on operators for damage caused by mining, has been frustrated by a lack of studies to support such measures. Adapting a Beverton-Holt bioeconomic model, this paper attempts to contribute to the estimation of external costs to commercial fisheries due to marine mining. Using the major mining area of Ongjin in Korea as a case study, we estimate economic losses in use value of commercial fisheries through the time to recovery of the injured resource stocks. Present value of lost catch over a 1-year period from mining to resource recovery is estimated at $38,851 for a single “prototype” mining site. Estimated cumulative damages due to recurring mining for 5 and 10 years are $1.5 million and $2.2 million, respectively, at 20 mining sites. Sensitivity analyses are used to examine the effects of alternative assumptions to assess the many sources of uncertainty. Using a form of meta-analysis, dose-response information is used to assess the excess mortality the mining sediment plume has on eggs and larvae and, ultimately, on the value of lost catch ($841). Also addressed is the importance of specifying the appropriate “premining” conditions against which to assess environmental losses at the mining site. Damages estimated with premining fish populations are $23,066 higher than is the case using postmining conditions. Overall, the illustrative results suggest the variety of complex conditions which influence damage to fisheries from mining and which can benefit from further study to improve management guidelines. An erratum to this article can be found at     

A Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water and Watershed Systems

In this article we present a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems to support management decision-making. The framework addresses three issues complicating assessments of climate change impacts—linkages across spatial scales, linkages across temporal scales, and linkages across scientific and management disciplines. A major theme underlying the framework is that, due to current limitations in modeling capabilities, assessing and responding to climate change should be approached from the perspective of risk assessment and management rather than as a prediction problem. The framework is based generally on ecological risk assessment and similar approaches. A second theme underlying the framework is the need for close collaboration among climate scientists, scientists interested in assessing impacts, and resource managers and decision makers. A case study illustrating an application of the framework is also presented that provides a specific, practical example of how the framework was used to assess the impacts of climate change on water quality in a mid-Atlantic, U.S., watershed.     

Evaluating Participatory Modeling: Developing a Framework for Cross-Case Analysis

Participatory modeling is increasingly recognized as an effective way to assist collective decision-making processes in the domain of natural resource management. This article introduces a framework for evaluating projects that have adopted a participatory modeling approach. This evaluation framework—known as the “Protocol of Canberra”—was developed through a collaboration between French and Australian researchers engaged in participatory modeling and evaluation research. The framework seeks to assess the extent to which different participatory modeling initiatives not only modify perceptions among and interactions between participants, but also contribute to collective decision-making. The article discusses the development of the framework and it’s application to three case-studies, two from Australia and one from the Pacific Island of the Republic of Kiribati. The article concludes with some comments for future use of the framework in a range of participatory modeling contexts.