Utility of dynamics as indicators of stress in population models

The relationships between the dynamics of environmentally and chemically stressed populations and indicators of the effects of the stressor are explored in a model framework. The physiologically structured population, represented by a system of McKendrick–von Foerster hyperbolic partial differential equations, includes the dynamics of numerous individuals distinguished by ecotype. Chemical uptake of nonpolar narcotics is modeled by first order kinetics. Classical methodologies, frequency analysis and phase space reconstruction, are explored in a search for indicators of magnitude of stress. When these techniques proved generally unsuccessful for the objective of indicator selection in our model setting, summary statistics, as related to bifurcation diagrams, were constructed and appear more useful as indicators. It is concluded that physiological structures generally lead to more feasible measurable indicators of magnitude of stress than do specifics of population dynamics.     

Within-and among-clutch variation of organochlorine residues in eggs of black-crowned night-herons

Within-clutch variability of DDE and PCB residues in eggs from 62 clutches of black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) was small (12% and 17%) compared to among-clutch variability (88% and 83%). Significant correlations between concentrations of DDE (median r=0.8885) and of PCBs (median r=0.8244) occurred when 501 correlations were run on two randomly selected eggs from within the same clutch; no significant correlation occurred for either concentrations of DDE (median r=0.0353) or PCBs (median r=–0.0843) when eggs were not restricted to the same clutch but were restricted to the same colony. The probability of finding infrequently detected organochlorine contaminants (e.g., DDT, cis-chlordane) in eggs from the same clutch varied from 43–96% and increased as the chemical became more prevalent and the number of eggs per clutch became smaller. These results further support one of the basic assumptions of the sample egg technique, that the chemical residues in one egg in a clutch accurately reflect residues in the remaining eggs of the clutch.     

Sampling and analysis for radon-222 dissolved in ground water and surface water

Radon-222 is a naturally occurring radioactive gas in the uranium-238 decay series that has traditionally been called, simply, radon. The lung cancer risks associated with the inhalation of radon decay products have been well documented by epidemiological studies on populations of uranium miners.The realization that radon is a public health hazard has raised the need for sampling and analytical guidelines for field personnel. Several sampling and analytical methods are being used to document radon concentrations in ground water and surface water worldwide but no convenient, single set of guidelines is available. Three different sampling and analytical methods-bubbler, liquid scintillation, and field screening-are discussed in this paper. The bubbler and liquid scintillation methods have high accuracy and precision, and small analytical method detection limits of 0.2 and 10 pCi/l (picocuries per liter), respectively. The field screening method generally is used as a qualitative reconnaissance tool.     

Triploid fetus: An important consideration in the evaluation of very high maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein

Two patients referred for evaluation of very high maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (10–20 multiples of the median) were carrying triploid fetuses with placentas showing features of partial hydatidiform mole. The diagnosis of fetal triploidy should be considered when there is a very high maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and no ultrasound evidence of open neural tube defect, ventral wall defect, or any other explanation. Therefore, chromosomal analysis of amniotic fluid cells in such cases is essential.     

Methods for project-based mechanisms (JI/CDM)—relevance of IPCC inventory guidelines

A baseline for a project consists of estimates of annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) for a given time period without implementing the project. A general three-step process for determining the baseline is suggested. The emission reduction of the project is given by the difference between the baseline and the monitored annual emissions. A preferred method, direct measurement of the emission reduction, is possible for some types of projects. Methods for estimating the annual baseline emissions are not necessary for the latter category, and a definition of this project category is suggested. IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories categorise the emission sources so that only direct emissions from consumption of fuel and feedstock are calculated. There are thus no emission factors for indirect emissions (e.g. electricity consumption or km transported) or emission factors that depend on technology only, independent of consumption of fuel and feedstock. Technology-dependent emission factors may thus need to be developed for estimating indirect emissions and multi-project baselines. Consistency should be sought with the IPCC Guidelines when estimating annual baseline emissions and in monitoring project emissions to ensure comparability with the National Inventories.     

Relationship between abundance of rodents and damage to agricultural crops

Developing a relationship between pest abundance and damage to crops is essential for the calculation of economic injury levels (EIL) leading to informed management decisions. The crop modelling framework, APSIM, was used to simulate the impact of mouse damage on yield loss on wheat where a long-term dataset on the density of mice was available (1983–2003). The model was calibrated using results from field trials where wheat plants were hand clipped to imitate mouse damage. The grazing effect of mice was estimated using the population density, daily intake per mouse and the proportion of wheat grain and plant tissue in the diet to determine yield loss. The mean yield loss caused by mice was 12.4% (±5.4S.E.; range −0.5 to 96%). There were 7/21 years when yield loss was >5%. A damage/abundance relationship was constructed and a sigmoidal curve explained 97% of variation when accounting for different trajectories of mouse densities from sowing to harvest. The majority of damage occurred around emergence of the crop when mouse densities were >100 mice ha⁻¹. This is the first time that field data on mouse density and a crop simulation model have been combined to estimate yield loss. The model examines the efficacy of baiting and how to estimate EILs. Because the broadscale application of zinc phosphide is cheap and effective, the EIL is very low (<1% yield loss). The APSIM model is highly flexible and could be used for other vertebrate pests in a range of crops or pastures to develop density/damage relationships and to assist with management.     

The selection of management strategies for controlling nematodes in cereals

Several genera and species of plant-parasitic nematodes cause losses in grain yield in cereals; some are of relatively minor importance (e.g. Anguina tritici (Steinbuch) Chitwood, the cause of “ear cockle” in wheat), while others such as the cereal cyst nematode (CCN) (Heterodera avenae Woll.) have a wide geographic distribution, infest extensive areas, and may cause losses valued at millions of dollars. Some of these nematodes are difficult to control because the measures that might be used are uneconomic to apply or are impractical. The control of CCN, however, can be achieved, and several successful strategies have been developed in parts of Europe and in Australia. The various measures available to Australian cereal growers include: crop rotation, resistant cultivars, manipulation of sowing dates, use of nematicides, and reduced cultivation. The selection of an appropriate management strategy for the control of CCN is influenced by factors such as: climate, cereal species grown, yield potential, rotations practised and the availability of alternative crops, pathotype present, farm size, availability of resistant cultivars, nematicides registered, and the availability of suitable equipment for their application.     

以中国为鉴--为什么西方的经济模式在全世界都将行不通

中国的美国梦会变成世界的恶梦吗？对于中国13亿人口，美国梦正在变成中国梦。数百万的中国人已经过上美国式的生活：食用更多肉类，开私家车，出国旅游，像美国人那样把迅速增加的收入用于其他开销。尽管这些美国生活方式的消费者还只是中国人口的一小部分，但中国对世界资源的需求已经变得相当可观。     

博茨瓦纳欧科范果湿地1972～2000年泛滥方式

欧科范果三角洲地区泛滥范围年年在变化.这种变化与安哥拉高地集水区的区域性降水及当地降雨量有关.我们采用了1972～2000年的3000多幅卫星图像来描绘湿地的格局,其中从1985～2000年的图像几乎是NOAAAVHRR每日连续传送的,1972年以来的其它图像是从Landsat传感器上传下来的,其连续性次之.对AVHRR图像每10天为一期,用无监督分类方法分成陆地和水体.对LandsatTM和ERS2-ATSR数据进行分析的结果,与测算的淹没区域89%相吻合.结果显示欧科范果湿地近期30年期间的变化约在2450～11400km2之间.