Estimating the spatio-temporal risk of disease epidemics using a bioclimatic niche model

There are presently few tools available for estimating epidemic risks from forest pathogens, and hence informing pro-active disease management. In this study we demonstrated that a bioclimatic niche model can be used to examine questions of epidemic risk in temperate eucalypt plantations. The bioclimatic niche model, CLIMEX, was used to identify regional variation in climate suitability for Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), a major cause of foliage damage in temperate eucalypt plantations around the world. Using historical observations of MLD damage, we were able to convert the relative score of climatic suitability generated by CLIMEX into a severity ranking ranging from low to high, providing for the first time a direct link between risk and impact, and allowing us to explore disease severity in a way meaningful to forest managers. We determined that the ‘Compare Years’ function in CLIMEX could be used for site-specific risk assessment to identify severity, frequency and seasonality of MLD epidemics. We explored appropriate scales of risk assessment for forest managers. Applying the CLIMEX model of MLD using a 0.25° or coarser grid size to areas of sharp topographic relief frequently misrepresented the risk posed by MLD, because considerable variation occurred between individual forest sites encompassed within a single grid cell. This highlighted the need for site-specific risk assessment to address many questions pertinent to managing risk in plantations.     

Effect of the nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide on microbial communities and N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O from an arable soil fertilized with ammonium sulphate

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) affects climate change as a greenhouse gas and indirectly contributes to stratospheric ozone depletion. The main source of N₂O in soils is denitrification which requires high soil moisture, carbon and nitrate. Nitrification inhibitors can be used to mitigate emissions of N₂O from soils. In Portugal, fertilisers are often applied when soils are still relatively warm and moist conditions conducive to denitrification. A Portuguese arable soil was inhibited with dicyandiamide, a nitrification inhibitor and the effect on soil microbiological activity and composition was determined after 46 days. Soils were then incubated and received carbon and ammonium under high soil water conditions and mineral N and N₂O fluxes were measured during 22 days. We found that dicyandiamide decreased microbial populations and activity, but did not alter composition. Pre-conditioning of the soil with dicyandiamide was 80% more effective in reducing fluxes of N₂O than simultaneous application with fertiliser.     

Effect of surfactants on phosphatase level of fresh water fish Labeo rohita

Alterations in the activity of enzymes Acid phosphatase (E.C.3.1.3.2) and Alkaline phosphatase (EC 3.1.3.1) in organs such as liver, gills and muscle of rohu following its exposure to surfactants viz. CTAB, SDS and Triton X-100 were analyzed. Different levels of exposure were given depending on the LC50 value of the surfactant used. Also, the influence of age and weight of the organisms was tested simultaneously. The activity of ACP in the tissues of fish exposed to all the three surfactants showed marked enhancement after exposure; the effect being highest in the liver followed by gill and muscle. Activity levels of ALP in different tissues of the fish exposed to the surfactants also showed an increase. Maximum increase was found in the liver followed by muscle, and gill. The increase in the levels of these enzymes indicates a stressful condition of the fish.     

Bioengineers and their associated fauna respond differently to the effects of biogeography and upwelling

Temperature and primary production (often linked to nutrient supply) are two of the few factors influencing species diversity and abundances across mesoscale gradients, while at smaller scales the habitat complexity offered by bioengineers is important. Previous studies have illustrated effects of upwelling and biogeography on intertidal bioengineers, but it is not known if these processes influence assemblages associated with those bioengineers in a similar way. We examined the habitat structure offered by two species of mussels and their associated fauna in five regions across 3000 km and three biogeographic provinces of the South African coast, replicating upwelling and non-upwelling areas within each region. Upwelling and region influenced the structure of mussel beds (the density and size of mussels). In contrast, upwelling did not influence mesoscale differences in composition, abundance, and numbers of species of crustaceans, mollusks, or polychaetes in mussel beds. Regardless of trophic level or mode of reproduction, mussel bed fauna were influenced only by region. Regional differences were strongly influenced by biogeography. The associated fauna was, however, also strongly correlated with the structure of the habitats created by mussels. Our results support the importance of upwelling to a critical ecosystem engineer, but show that these effects do not extend directly to the assemblages of associated fauna, which are more influenced by regional-scale effects and biogeography. We suggest that mesoscale patterns in the associated fauna of this bioengineered habitat are driven by the direct effects of biogeography, combined with the influence of biogeography and upwelling on mussel bed structure.     

Field evidence for pervasive indirect effects of fishing on prey foraging behavior

The indirect, ecosystem-level consequences of ocean fishing, and particularly the mechanisms driving them, are poorly understood. Most studies focus on density-mediated trophic cascades, where removal of predators alternately causes increases and decreases in abundances of lower trophic levels. However, cascades could also be driven by where and when prey forage rather than solely by prey abundance. Over a large gradient of fishing intensity in the central Pacific's remote northern Line Islands, including a nearly pristine, baseline coral reef system, we found that changes in predation risk elicit strong behavioral responses in foraging patterns across multiple prey fish species. These responses were observed as a function of both short-term ("acute") risk and longer-term ("chronic") risk, as well as when prey were exposed to model predators to isolate the effect of perceived predation risk from other potentially confounding factors. Compared to numerical prey responses, antipredator behavioral responses such as these can potentially have far greater net impacts (by occurring over entire assemblages) and operate over shorter temporal scales (with potentially instantaneous response times) in transmitting top-down effects. A rich body of literature exists on both the direct effects of human removal of predators from ecosystems and predators' effects on prey behavior. Our results draw together these lines of research and provide the first empirical evidence that large-scale human removal of predators from a natural ecosystem indirectly alters prey behavior. These behavioral changes may, in turn, drive previously unsuspected alterations in reef food webs.     

Heavy metals in fish species from lotic freshwater ecosystem at Afikpo, Nigeria

A study was conducted between March 2006 and February 2007 to assess the concentration of Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn, Pb, and Cr in the gills and muscles of six fish species (Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus, Clarias anguillaris, Tillapia zillii, Mormyrus rume rume, Mormyrus macrophthalmus and Mormyrus tapirus) from lotic freshwater ecosystem at Afikpo South- East Nigeria using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. In all the fish species studied the concentration of metals in the gills was significantly higher than that of the muscles (p<0.05). While the highest concentration (mg l(-1)) of Fe (702.20 +/- 0.04), Zn (34.40 +/- 0.02), Cu (2.10 +/- 0.01), Mn (4.91 +/- 0.08) Pb (0.50 +/- 0.02) and Cr (1.12 +/- 0.07) were recorded in the gills of C. nigrodigitatus, that in the muscles were recorded in T. zillii (443.20 +/- 0.08, 23.30 +/- 0.06, 1.33 +/- 0.06, 3.09 +/- 0.02, 0.31 +/- 0.01 and 0.66 +/- 0.04 for Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn, Pb and Cr respectively). The lowest concentration of all the heavy metals in the gills was recorded in M. tapirus (309.00 +/- 0.07, 16.45 +/- 0.03, 0.92 +/- 0.04, 2.15 +/- 0.04, 0.21 +/- 0.01 and 0.50 +/- 0.06 mg l(-1)for Fe, Zn, Cu Mn, Pb and Cr respectively) while the lowest in the muscles was recorded in C. anguillaris [Fe (186.00 +/- 0.07), Zn (14.20 +/- 0.08), Cu (0.56 +/- 0.03), Mn (1.30 +/- 0.02), Pb (0.10 +/- 0.01) and Cr (0.28 +/- 0.04)]. The order of heavy metals concentrations in both the gills and muscles was Fe>Zn>Mn>Cu>Cr>Pb. While the concentration of Zn, Cu and Pb both in the muscles and gills of all the six fish species studied were within the WHO and FEPA prescribed limits, that of Fe(except in the muscles), Mn and Cr were above the prescribed limits thus indicating contamination of the fish species by these metals. Fe has the highest bio-concentration factor (BCF) in both tissues while the least was Cu. Periodic monitoring of these metals in both fishes and river to ensure safety is advocated.     

Mosquito biodiversity of Dibru-Saikhowa biosphere reserve in Assam, India

Entomological surveys were conducted for three consecutive years in core and buffer zone of the Dibru-Saikhowa biosphere reserve in pre monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. A total of 52 species of mosquitoes under eleven genera have been detected. The genus Anopheles (18 species) was the predominant followed by Culex, Aedes, Mansonia, Armigeres, Mimomyia, Ochlerostatus, Malaya, Toxorhynchites, Ficalbia and Aedeomyia. The buffer zone of the forest reserve where human habitations are there exhibited the presence of maximum number of species (49 species under 10 genera) in comparison to core zone (42 species under 10 genera). In buffer zone, maximum numbers of species (38) were recorded in monsoon season followed by post- monsoon (35 species) and Pre-monsoon season (34 species). Whereas in core zone, maximum number of species were collected in post monsoon season followed by pre monsoon season and monsoon season. In Core and buffer zone, the maximum species were recorded from the ground pool habitat and slow flowing stream respectively. Among the disease vectors, the potential Japanese encephalitis vectors incriminated in India were very much prevalent. This study provides the list of available mosquito species recorded for the first time in the Dibru-Saikhowa biosphere reserve.     

Key Features and Context‐Dependence of Fishery‐Induced Trophic Cascades

Abstract: Trophic cascades triggered by fishing have profound implications for marine ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that depend on them. With the number of reported cases quickly growing, key features and commonalities have emerged. Fishery‐induced trophic cascades often display differential response times and nonlinear trajectories among trophic levels and can be accompanied by shifts in alternative states. Furthermore, their magnitude appears to be context dependent, varying as a function of species diversity, regional oceanography, local physical disturbance, habitat complexity, and the nature of the fishery itself. To conserve and manage exploited marine ecosystems, there is a pressing need for an improved understanding of the conditions that promote or inhibit the cascading consequences of fishing. Future research should investigate how the trophic effects of fishing interact with other human disturbances, identify strongly interacting species and ecosystem features that confer resilience to exploitation, determine ranges of predator depletion that elicit trophic cascades, pinpoint antecedents that signal ecosystem state shifts, and quantify variation in trophic rates across oceanographic conditions. This information will advance predictive models designed to forecast the trophic effects of fishing and will allow managers to better anticipate and avoid fishery‐induced trophic cascades.     

Use of an Action‐Selection Framework for Human‐Carnivore Conflict in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

Abstract: Human–carnivore conflict is manifested in the death of humans, livestock, and carnivores. The resulting negative local attitudes and retribution killings imperil the future of many endangered carnivores. We tailored existing management tools to create a framework to facilitate the selection of actions to alleviate human–carnivore conflict and applied the framework to the human–tiger conflict in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We identified potential actions that consider previous management efforts, local knowledge, cost‐effectiveness, fieldwork experience of authors and project staff, previous research on tiger ecology by the authors, and recommendations from human–carnivore conflict studies in other countries. Our framework includes creation of a profile to improve understanding of the nature of the conflict and its underlying causality. Identified actions include deterrents, education, direct tiger management, and response teams. We ranked actions by their potential to reduce conflict and the monetary cost of their implementation. We ranked tiger‐response teams and monitoring problem tigers as the two best actions because both had relatively high impact and cost‐effectiveness. We believe this framework could be used under a wide range of human–wildlife conflict situations because it provides a structured approach to selection of mitigating actions.     

Defining Historical Baselines for Conservation: Ecological Changes Since European Settlement on Vancouver Island,Canada

Abstract: Conservation and restoration goals are often defined by historical baseline conditions that occurred prior to a particular period of human disturbance, such as European settlement in North America. Nevertheless, if ecosystems were heavily influenced by native peoples prior to European settlement, conservation efforts may require active management rather than simple removal of or reductions in recent forms of disturbance. We used pre‐European settlement land survey records (1859–1874) and contemporary vegetation surveys to assess changes over the past 150 years in tree species and habitat composition, forest density, and tree size structure on southern Vancouver Island and Saltspring Island, British Columbia, Canada. Several lines of evidence support the hypothesis that frequent historical burning by native peoples, and subsequent fire suppression, have played dominant roles in shaping this landscape. First, the relative frequency of fire‐sensitive species (e.g., cedar [Thuja plicata]) has increased, whereas fire‐tolerant species (e.g., Douglas‐fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii]) have decreased. Tree density has increased 2‐fold, and the proportion of the landscape in forest has greatly increased at the expense of open habitats (plains, savannas), which today contain most of the region's threatened species. Finally, the frequency distribution of tree size has shifted from unimodal to monotonically decreasing, which suggests removal of an important barrier to tree recruitment. In addition, although most of the open habitats are associated with Garry oak (Quercus garryana) at present, most of the open habitats prior to European settlement were associated with Douglas‐fir, which suggests that the current focus on Garry oak as a flagship for the many rare species in savannas may be misguided. Overall, our results indicate that the maintenance and restoration of open habitats will require active management and that historical records can provide critical guidance to such efforts.