自然灾害变动的集成预测模型及其应用

本文提出了以非线性回归拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻划随机扰动的集成预测模型，并应用于山东省农业自然灾害成灾面积的变动规律模拟，得到了较好的预测效果。理论和实践表明，集成预测模型优于传统的单模型预测，为预测具有复杂机制的自然灾害演变提供了一种新方法。     

减轻旱灾,谋求旱区可持续发展的综合途径与措施

运用旱区环境社会学的观点和方法，从旱灾、旱区环境与人类行为交互作用的角度分析旱灾，提出减轻旱灾、谋求旱区可持续发展的综合途径、措施与对策。对策的重点是非技术措施与方法，如调适人类开发利用生态资源的观念、方法及群体行为，改善旱区的社会格局、加强旱区人类行为评估和移民管理等。同时提出减轻旱灾，必须强化旱灾的社会学研究。     

自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向

由于自然灾害系统的复杂性及数据资料的不完备性,人们不可能精确估计任何自然灾害发生的概率,"概率值估不准"是现有超越概率风险区划图的致命弱点.简要回顾了针对这一问题已进行的提高估计精度和进行模糊风险计算的有关研究,并将模糊风险研究引入风险区划图的编制,给出了自然灾害软风险区划图的定义和一个初步的样式.讨论了这种风险图在体现风险值估不准方面,以及在为用户提供更多风险信息,为决策者提供调整余地等方面的优点.研究结果表明,软风险区划图是自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向.为推进这一研究领域的发展,对今后的工作提出了一些建议.     

着装舒适性的新热感指数

以Fanger等人建立的预告平均票数（PMV）、温斯洛提出的不舒服皮肤湿度指教（DISC）和有效温度指数（ET★）为基础。阐述了A.P．Gaggcr等人建立的人体对衣内热环境反应的新标准预测指数PMV＊。在此基础上。详尽分析了与人体舒适性密切相关的温度指标和感觉指标。同时也对原预告平均票数（PMV）与新的预告平均票数（PMV★）进行了深入细致的比较，探讨了PMV★及新的舒适一温度图的适用性。     

Effects of organic matter on Leymus chinensis germination,growth, and urease activity and available nitrogen in coastal saline soil

ABSTRACT

The present study was carried out to investigate the effect of three organic matters (stalk powder, microbial fertilizer, and manure) on Leymus chinensis germination, growth, and urease activity and available nitrogen (N) in coastal saline soil. The study was conducted in a completely randomized design with eight treatments: J₀V₀Y₀, J₁V₀Y₀, J₀V₁Y₀, J₀V₀Y₁, J₁V₁Y₀, J₁V₀Y₁, J₀V₁Y₁, J₁V₁Y₁. The notations were based on the quantities of each agent added to 1 kg of coastal saline soil: J₀ – no straw powder, J₁ – 0.2 kg straw powder, Y₀ – no manure, Y₁ – 0.3 kg manure, V₀ – no microbial fertilizer, V₁ – 0.2 L microbial fertilizer, each in quantic repeat. L. chinensis was sown as 50 seeds per pot. Results indicated that addition of organic agents exerted a significantly enhanced germination, increase in fresh weight and elevated soil urease activity. Soil available N levels were significantly positively correlated with soil urease activity and fresh weight, but not with germination rate. It is noteworthy that the halophyte L. chinensis showed improved characteristics when grown in coastal saline soil with addition of organic amendments.     

Iodine enrichment and the underlying mechanism in deep groundwater in the Cangzhou Region,North China

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The lack of information on the origin and behavior of iodine in deep groundwater restricts the development and use of groundwater resources. To...     

Shifts in microbial community structure and diversity in a MBR combined with worm reactors treating synthetic wastewater

The chemical oxygen demand (COD) and NH₃-N removal, membrane fouling, sludge characteristics and microbial community structure in a membrane bioreactor (MBR) coupled with worm reactors (SSBWR) were evaluated for 210 days. The obtained results were compared to those from a conventional MBR (C-MBR) operated in parallel. The results indicated that the combined MBR (S-MBR) achieved higher COD and NH₃-N removal efficiency, slower increase in membrane fouling, better sludge settleability and higher activities of the related enzymes in the activated sludge. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis was used to analyze the microbial community structures in the C-MBR and the S-MBR. The microbial community structure in the S-MBR was more diverse than that in the C-MBR. Additionally, the slow-growing microbes such as Saprospiraceae, Actinomyces, Frankia, Clostridium, Comamonas, Pseudomonas, Dechloromonas and Flavobacterium were enriched in the S-MBR, further accounting for the sludge reduction, membrane fouling alleviation and wastewater treatment.     

排污权有偿使用与交易制度若干问题探析——以浙江省温州市为例

排污权有偿使用与交易制度是我国一项重要的环境经济政策。文章以温州市为例,从水环境管理视角出发,探讨排污权有偿使用与交易的若干问题。着重分析温州市初始排污权核定与分配的成效、存在的问题和解决途径,利用平均治理成本等方法设计排污权有偿使用价格,研究排污权交易的实现途径。在此基础上,文章提出应探索利用地方立法权制定排污权相关法律法规、完善初始排污权核定与分配方法、优化排污权竞拍机制和实施市场化激励政策等建议。     

闲置厌氧氨氧化微生物的启动及微生物分析

文章以闲置12个月的厌氧氨氧化生物膜填料重新启动厌氧氨氧化反应器,并对反应器的活性恢复情况、脱氮效果和微生物菌群结构开展研究。实验结果表明:在启动的200 d逐渐将进水氨氮、亚硝态氮浓度从50 mg/L提高到70 mg/L,水力停留时间从12 h缩短到4 h,后期氨氮去除率达80%以上,亚硝酸盐去除率达95%。170~200 d的稳定期中,平均去除负荷0.71±0.15 kg/(m~3·d)。另外,通过高通量测序技术对反应器中微生物群落变化情况进行了系统分析。启动过程中填料中污泥微生物浮霉菌门Planctomyctes的相对丰度从13.7%增长到了36.0%,成为优势菌群。     

流域景观格局对大型底栖动物群落结构的影响研究——以太子河山区段为例

为研究太子河山区段大型底栖动物群落结构与陆地景观因子之间的相互关系,以水生态调查和遥感解译数据为基础,采用主成分分析和回归分析的方法分析了景观格局指数与大型底栖动物群落结构指数的关系,结果表明:大型底栖动物的物种数、EPT科级分类单元数(蜉蝣目、襀翅目、毛翅目)和ASPT指数与景观聚集度指数、最大斑块指数、连通度指数呈显著正相关,与景观香农多样性指数、分离度指数、景观形状指数呈显著负相关。研究结果反映了流域景观斑块的破碎化和人为干扰会对底栖动物群落结构产生负面影响,可以指导以保护河流大型底栖动物群落为目标的流域景观格局优化。